The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
53%Louisiana Tech BulldogsLean✗
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
LT by 1.5market BAY by 20.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
57.0 pointsmarket 50.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at 53% to win, with the market at BAY by 20.5.
Counterpoint: rushing favours BAY. BAY rushing ranks #85, LT defends it at #113; the other way LT #88 into BAY's #2. The pick still lands on LT because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: BAY has the better last five games by 13.6 points a game (BAY +20.6, LT +7.0).
Home field is with BAY, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it LT by 1.5 against a market BAY by 20.5: 22.0 points of daylight in LT's favour. The model's total is 57.0 against a line of 50.5: 6.5 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model LT by 1.5 · market BAY by 20.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor BAY, but the model still picks LT. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
BAY passing ranks #58, LT defends it at #46; the other way LT #71 into BAY's #41.
Rushing game
BAY
Clear advantage
BAY rushing ranks #85, LT defends it at #113; the other way LT #88 into BAY's #2.
Third down & red zone
BAY
Slight advantage
BAY points / scoring opportunity ranks #76, LT defends it at #89; the other way LT #59 into BAY's #5.
Big plays
BAY
Clear advantage
BAY pass explosiveness ranks #14, LT defends it at #97; the other way LT #47 into BAY's #11.
Pass protection & rush
BAY
Clear advantage
BAY sack rate ranks #31, LT defends it at #26; the other way LT #89 into BAY's #18.
Ball security
=
Even
LT turnovers / game ranks #76, BAY defends it at #11; the other way BAY #99 into LT's #14.
Form (last 5)
BAY
Clear advantage
BAY +20.6 per game over the last five, LT +7.0.
Market
BAY
Clear advantage
Consensus has BAY by 20.5; the model says LT by 1.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket BAY by 20.5 · model LT by 1.5
Mkt BAY 20.5
Model LT 1.5
← LT by 28tieBAY by 28 →
35.7% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7 and 10 and 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 50.5 · model 57.0
Mkt 50.5
Model 57.0
24 pts6096 pts
14.5% of FBS games finish between 50.5 and 57.0. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: BAYModel disagrees
Opened
BAY -18.5
→
Market maker now
BAY -19.75
▲ 1 since open
→
Retail now
BAY -20
in line
8 moves7 books0 led
Mon, Sep 14, 1:20 AM first sharp move: BAY -18 → BAY -17
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still BAY -18.5 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the underModel disagrees
Opened
55.5
→
Market maker now
52.8
▼ 2.3 since open
→
Retail now
50.5
2.3 behind
9 moves7 books4 led
Mon, Sep 14, 1:20 AM first sharp move: 55 → 54
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 55.5 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
