Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Oregon Ducks
2-1
Model predicts
37 – 35
Sat, Sep 26, 7:30 PM ET
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · 85° · Mostly sunny
USC Trojans
4-0
Spread ORE -3 (opened ORE -5.5)Total 62.5Moneyline ORE -155 · USC +1307 books · best ORE -150 bovada · USC +140 betonlineag
Save imageSquare
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Lean
ORE -155
55%
model margin ORE by 2.1
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Slight
USC +3
50%
0.9 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Over 62.5
53%
model total 71.3 · best over 62 at bovada
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has ORE winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, USC. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.

The read

The clearest mismatch is the third down & red zone: ORE third-down conversion ranks #27, USC defends it at #74; the other way USC #3 into ORE's #4. The model lands on ORE by 2.1, essentially the market's number — no spread lean. On the total the model sees 71.3 against 62.5.

Who has the edge

Model: ORE by 2.1 · market ORE by 3
Passing game
Slight edge
ORE
ORE passing ranks #78, USC defends it at #116; the other way USC #6 into ORE's #13.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Slight edge
ORE
ORE rushing ranks #46, USC defends it at #61; the other way USC #89 into ORE's #73.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
ORE
ORE third-down conversion ranks #27, USC defends it at #74; the other way USC #3 into ORE's #4.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
ORE
USC +20.3 per game over the last five, ORE +27.7.
context · not in the margin
Market
Slight edge
ORE
Consensus has ORE by 3; the model says ORE by 2.1.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every FBS final since 2023, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,024 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ORE by 3 · model ORE by 2.1
Mkt ORE 3
Model ORE 2.1
-28028

No whole-number margin falls between 3 and 2.1, so the two sides differ only on a push at 3. The market is on 3, a number 9.3% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).

Totalmarket 62.5 · model 71.3
Mkt 62.5
Model 71.3
246096

14.6% of FBS games finish between 62.5 and 71.3 — the games where the over cashes on the model’s read but not by much. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
Sharp side: ORE · model disagrees
Opened
USC -1.5
Pinnacle now
ORE -3(-0.5)
Retail now
ORE -3
Moves
16 across 7 books · 4 led

First sharp move Sun 5:44 PM: ORE -2.5 → ORE -3, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still ORE -2.5.Steam Mon 8:32 AM

Total
Sharp side: the over · model agrees
Opened
63.5
Pinnacle now
62.3(+0.5)
Retail now
62.5
Moves
17 across 7 books · 1 led

First sharp move Sun 5:44 PM: 61.5 → 62.5, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still 62.5.

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.