Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Massachusetts Minutemen
3-0
Model predicts
26 – 25
Sat, Sep 26, 9:00 PM ET
Hornet Stadium · 81° · 10 mph wind · Mostly sunny
Sacramento State Hornets
1-3
Spread MASS -4 (opened MASS -6)Total 48.5Moneyline MASS -185 · SAC +1577 books · best MASS -180 betonlineag · SAC +165 hardrockbet
Save imageSquare
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Lean
MASS -185
51%
model margin MASS by 0.5
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
SAC +4
51%
3.5 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean
Over 48.5
51%
model total 50.7
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has MASS winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, SAC. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.

The read

The clearest mismatch is the passing game: MASS passing ranks #29, SAC defends it at #118; the other way SAC #116 into MASS's #55. The model lands on MASS by 0.5 against a market MASS by 4, so the spread lean is SAC by 3.5 points — a lean for reading the game, not the call itself. On the total the model sees 50.7 against 48.5.

Who has the edge

Model: MASS by 0.5 · market MASS by 4
Passing game
Clear edge
MASS
MASS passing ranks #29, SAC defends it at #118; the other way SAC #116 into MASS's #55.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Clear edge
MASS
MASS rushing ranks #24, SAC defends it at #20; the other way SAC #134 into MASS's #1.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Clear edge
MASS
MASS third-down conversion ranks #113, SAC defends it at #54; the other way SAC #98 into MASS's #6.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
MASS
SAC −6.5 per game over the last five, MASS +21.7.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
MASS
Consensus has MASS by 4; the model says MASS by 0.5.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every FBS final since 2023, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,024 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket MASS by 4 · model MASS by 0.5
Mkt MASS 4
Model MASS 0.5
-28028

7.1% of FBS games land between the two numbers — the zone where the model’s side covers and the market’s does not. The market is on 4, a number 3.3% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).

Totalmarket 48.5 · model 50.7
Mkt 48.5
Model 50.7
246096

3.9% of FBS games finish between 48.5 and 50.7 — the games where the over cashes on the model’s read but not by much. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
Sharp side: SAC · model agrees
Opened
MASS -6.25
Pinnacle now
MASS -4(+1.8)
Retail now
MASS -4
Moves
31 across 7 books · 6 led

First sharp move Mon 3:14 PM: MASS -5.5 → MASS -5, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still MASS -4.5.

Total
No sharp side yet
Opened
50
Pinnacle now
48.5(-0.3)
Retail now
48.5
Moves
10 across 7 books

First sharp move Wed 9:26 AM: 49 → 48.5, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still 48.5.

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.