Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Oregon State Beavers
1-2
Model predicts
31 – 31
Sat, Sep 26, 9:00 PM ET
Sun Bowl · 83° · Mostly clear
UTEP Miners
1-2
Spread ORST -10.5 (opened ORST -12.5)Total 56Moneyline ORST -475 · UTEP +3607 books · best ORST -440 draftkings · UTEP +375 fanduel
Save imageSquare
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Lean
UTEP +360
51%
model margin UTEP by 0.3
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
UTEP +10.5
54%
10.8 pts from the number · best UTEP +11.5 at hardrockbet
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Over 56
52%
model total 62.4 · best over 55.5 at hardrockbet

The read

The clearest mismatch is the third down & red zone: ORST third-down conversion ranks #117, UTEP defends it at #130; the other way UTEP #131 into ORST's #111. The model lands on UTEP by 0.3 against a market ORST by 10.5, so the spread lean is UTEP by 10.8 points — a lean for reading the game, not the call itself. On the total the model sees 62.4 against 56.

Who has the edge

Model: UTEP by 0.3 · market ORST by 10.5
Passing game
Slight edge
ORST
ORST passing ranks #54, UTEP defends it at #135; the other way UTEP #60 into ORST's #86.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Even
—
ORST rushing ranks #129, UTEP defends it at #97; the other way UTEP #135 into ORST's #90.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Clear edge
ORST
ORST third-down conversion ranks #117, UTEP defends it at #130; the other way UTEP #131 into ORST's #111.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
ORST
UTEP −15.0 per game over the last five, ORST +3.7.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
ORST
Consensus has ORST by 10.5; the model says UTEP by 0.3.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every FBS final since 2023, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,024 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ORST by 10.5 · model UTEP by 0.3
Mkt ORST 10.5
Model UTEP 0.3
-28028

17.4% of FBS games land between the two numbers — the zone where the model’s side covers and the market’s does not. The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7 and 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).

Totalmarket 56 · model 62.4
Mkt 56
Model 62.4
246096

13.2% of FBS games finish between 56 and 62.4 — the games where the over cashes on the model’s read but not by much. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
Sharp side: UTEP · model agrees
Opened
ORST -12
Pinnacle now
ORST -10.5(+1)
Retail now
ORST -11+0.5 behind
Moves
29 across 7 books · 8 led

First sharp move Sun 11:22 PM: ORST -11.5 → ORST -12, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still ORST -12.25.

Total
Sharp side: the over · model agrees
Opened
56
Pinnacle now
55.8(+1.3)
Retail now
56.5-0.8 behind
Moves
28 across 7 books · 10 led

First sharp move Mon 10:58 PM: 55 → 54.5, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still 53.5.Steam Tue 1:20 PM

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.