Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Ole Miss Rebels
3-0
Model predicts
40 – 26
Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM ET
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · 85° · Mostly sunny
Florida Gators
3-0
Spread FLA -3.5 (opened FLA -1.5)Total 59Moneyline MISS +140 · FLA -1657 books · best MISS +147 betonlineag · FLA -155 draftkings
Save imageSquare
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
MISS +140
79%
model margin MISS by 13.6
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
MISS +3.5
56%
17.1 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Over 59
53%
model total 66.6 · best over 58.5 at betmgm

The read

The clearest mismatch is the passing game: FLA passing ranks #13, MISS defends it at #107; the other way MISS #32 into FLA's #46. The model lands on MISS by 13.6 against a market FLA by 3.5, so the spread lean is MISS by 17.1 points — a lean for reading the game, not the call itself. On the total the model sees 66.6 against 59.

Who has the edge

Model: MISS by 13.6 · market FLA by 3.5
Passing game
Clear edge
FLA
FLA passing ranks #13, MISS defends it at #107; the other way MISS #32 into FLA's #46.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Even
—
FLA rushing ranks #12, MISS defends it at #83; the other way MISS #44 into FLA's #104.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
MISS
MISS third-down conversion ranks #49, FLA defends it at #99; the other way FLA #51 into MISS's #90.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
FLA
FLA +33.0 per game over the last five, MISS +14.3.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
FLA
Consensus has FLA by 3.5; the model says MISS by 13.6.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every FBS final since 2023, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,024 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket FLA by 3.5 · model MISS by 13.6
Mkt FLA 3.5
Model MISS 13.6
-28028

27.9% of FBS games land between the two numbers — the zone where the model’s side covers and the market’s does not. The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7 and 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).

Totalmarket 59 · model 66.6
Mkt 59
Model 66.6
246096

13.3% of FBS games finish between 59 and 66.6 — the games where the over cashes on the model’s read but not by much. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
No sharp side yet
Opened
FLA PK
Pinnacle now
FLA -3.25(+0.3)
Retail now
FLA -3.5
Moves
42 across 7 books · 3 led

First sharp move Sun 1:56 PM: FLA -2.5 → FLA -3, 2 books followed within six hours; retail was still FLA -2.5.Steam Sun 1:56 PM

Total
Sharp side: the under · model disagrees
Opened
58
Pinnacle now
59(-1.3)
Retail now
58.5+0.5 behind
Moves
33 across 7 books · 3 led

First sharp move Sun 3:28 PM: 59.5 → 60, 4 books followed within six hours; retail was still 59.5.Steam Sun 3:28 PM

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.