The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
92%Nevada Wolf PackStrong✗
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
NEV by 23.6market MTST by 4.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
54.5 pointsmarket 51.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Nevada Wolf Pack at 92% to win, with the market at MTST by 4.5.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Form: MTST has the better last five games by 10.0 points a game (NEV +3.0, MTST +13.0).
Home field is with NEV, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it NEV by 23.6 against a market MTST by 4.5: 28.1 points of daylight in NEV's favour. The model's total is 54.5 against a line of 51.5: 3.0 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model NEV by 23.6 · market MTST by 4.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor MTST, but the model still picks NEV. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Rushing game
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Third down & red zone
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Big plays
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Pass protection & rush
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Ball security
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Form (last 5)
MTST
Clear advantage
NEV +3.0 per game over the last five, MTST +13.0.
Market
MTST
Clear advantage
Consensus has MTST by 4.5; the model says NEV by 23.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket MTST by 4.5 · model NEV by 23.6
Mkt MTST 4.5
Model NEV 23.6
← MTST by 28tieNEV by 28 →
47.0% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7 and 10 and 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 51.5 · model 54.5
Mkt 51.5
Model 54.5
24 pts6096 pts
5.8% of FBS games finish between 51.5 and 54.5. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
