The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
53%Houston TexansLean✗
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
HOU by 1.1market BUF by 1
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
48.3 pointsmarket 44.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Houston Texans at 53% to win, with the market at BUF by 1.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with C.J. Stroud starting for Houston Texans, and the model prices that in.
Counterpoint: rushing favours BUF. BUF rushing ranks #4, HOU defends it at #11; the other way HOU #30 into BUF's #22. The pick still lands on HOU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: BUF has the better last five games by 11.3 points a game (HOU -6.3, BUF +5.0).
Home field is with HOU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it HOU by 1.1 against a market BUF by 1: 2.1 points of daylight in HOU's favour. The model's total is 48.3 against a line of 44.5: 3.8 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model HOU by 1.1 · market BUF by 1
ⓘMost of these areas favor BUF, but the model still picks HOU. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
BUF
Slight advantage
BUF passing ranks #3, HOU defends it at #25; the other way HOU #15 into BUF's #26.
Rushing game
BUF
Clear advantage
BUF rushing ranks #4, HOU defends it at #11; the other way HOU #30 into BUF's #22.
Third down & red zone
BUF
Slight advantage
BUF third-down conversion ranks #2, HOU defends it at #14; the other way HOU #19 into BUF's #20.
Big plays
BUF
Slight advantage
BUF explosive rush rate ranks #1, HOU defends it at #9; the other way HOU #31 into BUF's #18.
Pass protection & rush
HOU
Slight advantage
HOU sack rate ranks #22, BUF defends it at #16; the other way BUF #19 into HOU's #2.
Ball security
HOU
Slight advantage
HOU turnovers / game ranks #6, BUF defends it at #12; the other way BUF #25 into HOU's #23.
Form (last 5)
BUF
Clear advantage
HOU −6.3 per game over the last five, BUF +5.0.
Market
=
Even
Consensus has BUF by 1; the model says HOU by 1.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket BUF by 1 · model HOU by 1.1
Mkt BUF 1
Model HOU 1.1
← BUF by 28tieHOU by 28 →
2.6% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 1, a number 4.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 44.5 · model 48.3
Mkt 44.5
Model 48.3
20 pts4672 pts
10.8% of NFL games finish between 44.5 and 48.3. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
