Probetrics — Sports Analytics
Predictions · Football board

The model against the live lines

NFL week 3 and college week 4. Click a column to sort. Every edge column is the model’s number minus the market’s: for the winner it is the gap in win probability (model 60% against a market 50% shows as +10%), for the spread and total it is points, shown for the side the model takes. Bigger gaps deserve more skepticism, not less.

87 of 87 games87 lockedBiggest winner gap: VAN 70% vs market 25% (+45.5%)Sorted by kickoff ↑
PickBest ML
LIB at CCUCFBLive 20–17Q3 0:00LIB55%56%-1.1%CCU +2.5LIB -2.2CCU +0.350%50.550.8O +0.350%LIB ▼0.5Under ▼2.0 ⚡7-134 fanduelIn progress
ATL at GBNFLLive 24–7Q3 0:00GB71%68%+2.5%GB -4.5GB -7.5GB +3.051%43.544.2O +0.750%ATL ▼2.8Under ▼1.0 ⚡7-238 draftkingsIn progress
ARMY at TEMCFBFri 4:00 PMARMY65%58%+6.5%TEM +3ARMY -2.5 · hardrockbetARMY -6.5ARMY +3.551%48.5O 48 · pinnacle48.9O +0.450%Under ▼0.57-150 bovada—
HOW at RUTGCFBFri 7:00 PMRUTG86%——RUTG -43.5RUTG -18.3HOW +25.259%55.5O 55 · pinnacle58.6O +3.151%RUTG ▲0.5Over ▲1.04——
NAVY at UABCFBFri 7:00 PMNAVY66%69%-2.7%UAB +6.5NAVY -6 · betonlineagNAVY -7.3NAVY +0.850%51.5O 51 · bovada52.7O +1.250%UAB ▲1.37-250 bovada—
NU at #5 IUCFBFri 8:00 PMIU95%91%+3.9%IU -20.5IU -20 · betonlineagIU -28.3IU +7.853%49.5U 50 · pinnacle46.9U +2.651%NU ▼2.07-1600 betmgm—
CLEM at CALCFBFri 10:30 PMCLEM60%51%+8.8%CAL +1CLEM PK · betonlineagCLEM -4.3CLEM +3.351%50.551.0O +0.550%CLEM ▼1.0 ⚡7-112 pinnacle—
ILL at #7 OSUCFBSat 12:00 PMOSU86%94%-7.9%OSU -27ILL +27.5 · draftkingsOSU -18.9ILL +8.153%53.5U 54.5 · fanduel50.0U +3.551%ILL ▼0.37-4000 draftkings—
SHSU at #11 TTUCFBSat 12:00 PMTTU98%98%+0.4%TTU -34.5TTU -34 · betonlineagTTU -43.0TTU +8.553%55.5U 56.5 · betonlineag47.5U +8.053%SHSU ▼1.3Over ▲1.37-30000 fanduel—
WAKE at #16 LOUCFBSat 12:00 PMLOU73%82%-8.4%LOU -13.5WAKE +14 · bovadaLOU -10.7WAKE +2.851%57O 56.5 · draftkings62.1O +5.152%LOU ▲0.8 ⚡Under ▼1.0 ⚡7-540 betonlineag—
COLO at BAYCFBSat 12:00 PMBAY70%76%-5.7%BAY -9.5COLO +10 · betonlineagBAY -9.0COLO +0.550%55.553.4U +2.151%Over ▲0.57-375 betmgm—
VT at BCCFBSat 12:00 PMVT65%82%-17.0%BC +14BC +14.5 · fanduelVT -6.7BC +7.353%47.5U 48 · pinnacle47.0U +0.550%Under ▼5.57-590 betonlineag—
SDSU at TOLCFBSat 12:00 PMTOL71%57%+13.7%TOL -3TOL -2.5 · fanduelTOL -9.5TOL +6.552%51.5O 51 · betonlineag53.0O +1.551%TOL ▲0.5 ⚡Over ▲1.37-145 bovada—
CSU at UTSACFBSat 12:00 PMUTSA86%81%+4.5%UTSA -13.5UTSA -18.5UTSA +5.052%58.5O 57.5 · fanduel61.9O +3.451%UTSA ▲0.8Over ▲0.57-550 betonlineag—
UNLV at AKRCFBSat 12:00 PMUNLV77%81%-3.9%AKR +13.5UNLV -12.7AKR +0.850%52.5U 53 · bovada47.4U +5.152%Over ▲2.37-525 betonlineag—
BALL at KENTCFBSat 12:00 PMKENT65%58%+6.7%KENT -3KENT -2.5 · hardrockbetKENT -6.6KENT +3.651%50.561.7O +11.254%Over ▲1.57-144 fanduel—
#1 TEX at #14 TENNCFBSat 12:00 PMTEX59%63%-4.4%TENN +4TENN +4.5 · fanduelTEX -3.8TENN +0.250%55.5O 55 · betonlineag58.9O +3.451%TENN ▲0.5 ⚡Under ▼0.57-182 fanduel—
BUCK at PITTCFBSat 12:00 PMPITT98%——PITT -52.5PITT -38.6BUCK +13.955%62.75U 63.5 · draftkings54.5U +8.353%Over ▲1.54——
USA at UKCFBSat 12:45 PMUK77%90%-12.7%UK -20.5UK -12.8USA +7.753%54.559.7O +5.252%—7-1200 hardrockbet—
LIN at EMUCFBSat 1:00 PMEMU78%95%-17.8%EMU -26LIN +26.5 · fanduelEMU -13.0LIN +13.054%49.552.0O +2.551%LIN ▼1.04-4000 hardrockbet—
UCLA at MDCFBSat 1:30 PMMD50%48%+2.2%MD +1.5PKMD +1.551%56.5U 57 · pinnacle52.7U +3.851%MD ▲1.0Under ▼1.3 ⚡7+104 pinnacle—
#3 ND at PURCFBSat 2:00 PMND93%94%-1.5%PUR +28PUR +28.5 · hardrockbetND -25.2PUR +2.851%58.5O 57.5 · pinnacle65.1O +6.652%ND ▼0.8Under ▲0.37-4500 draftkings—
NIU at GASTCFBSat 2:00 PMGAST66%77%-11.1%GAST -10.5GAST -6.9NIU +3.651%56O 55.5 · fanduel57.2O +1.250%GAST ▲0.5Over ▲1.07-375 betonlineag—
CARK at FSUCFBSat 3:00 PMFSU95%——FSU -45.5FSU -29.1CARK +16.456%61.5U 62.5 · fanduel59.7U +1.851%FSU ▲1.0Over ▲2.04——
HAW at WYOCFBSat 3:00 PMHAW70%59%+11.2%WYO +3HAW -2.5 · hardrockbetHAW -9.1HAW +6.152%43.5U 44 · pinnacle32.9U +10.654%WYO ▲0.5 ⚡Under ▼1.87-150 fanduel—
#24 OU at #2 UGACFBSat 3:30 PMUGA75%82%-6.4%UGA -13.5OU +14 · pinnacleUGA -11.8OU +1.751%44.545.7O +1.250%Over ▲0.87-550 draftkings—
#4 MISS at #21 FLACFBSat 3:30 PMMISS79%40%+38.5%FLA -3.5MISS -13.6MISS +17.156%59O 58.5 · betmgm67.0O +8.053%Under ▼1.3 ⚡7+147 betonlineag—
#17 IOWA at #18 MICHCFBSat 3:30 PMMICH51%66%-15.1%MICH -5.5MICH -0.3IOWA +5.252%38.542.7O +4.251%MICH ▲0.8Over ▲0.8 ⚡7-210 betonlineag—
#15 UTAH at ISUCFBSat 3:30 PMUTAH69%74%-4.7%ISU +8UTAH -7.5 · draftkingsUTAH -8.7UTAH +0.750%47.552.9O +5.452%ISU ▲0.8 ⚡Under ▼1.07-325 betmgm—
TCU at UCFCFBSat 3:30 PMTCU52%58%-6.5%UCF +3UCF +3.5 · fanduelTCU -0.8UCF +2.251%48.548.5U +0.050%Under ▼1.0 ⚡7-154 pinnacle—
BOIS at WMUCFBSat 3:30 PMBOIS55%71%-15.6%WMU +7WMU +7.5 · pinnacleBOIS -2.3WMU +4.752%49.5U 50 · bovada49.0U +0.550%Over ▲0.87-275 fanduel—
CONN at M-OHCFBSat 3:30 PMCONN54%38%+15.6%M-OH -3.5CONN +4 · betonlineagCONN -1.7CONN +5.252%51.561.2O +9.753%CONN ▼1.0 ⚡Over ▲1.37+160 bovada—
W&M at DUKECFBSat 3:30 PMDUKE98%——DUKE -43.5DUKE -37.7W&M +5.852%62.558.8U +3.751%Over ▲1.04——
UNM at NMSUCFBSat 3:30 PMUNM73%79%-5.7%NMSU +11.5UNM -10.7NMSU +0.850%48.549.8O +1.350%NMSU ▲1.0 ⚡7-450 betmgm—
RMU at BUFFCFBSat 3:30 PMBUFF84%95%-11.2%BUFF -28.5RMU +29.5 · hardrockbetBUFF -17.2RMU +11.354%45.5O 45 · betonlineag52.9O +7.453%Over ▲0.54-6500 draftkings—
STO at OHIOCFBSat 3:30 PMOHIO93%97%-4.3%OHIO -33STO +33.5 · draftkingsOHIO -25.6STO +7.453%52.5O 51.5 · hardrockbet57.4O +4.952%OHIOOver ▲1.54-20000 draftkings—
GWEB at MRSHCFBSat 3:30 PMMRSH93%94%-0.4%MRSH -24MRSH -23.5 · draftkingsMRSH -25.6MRSH +1.651%50.556.7O +6.252%GWEB4-2500 hardrockbet—
#25 HOU at GASOCFBSat 4:00 PMHOU79%87%-8.6%GASO +18GASO +18.5 · fanduelHOU -13.7GASO +4.351%56.555.9U +0.650%GASO ▲0.8Over ▲1.57-1000 betonlineag—
NCCU at ECUCFBSat 4:00 PMECU96%96%+0.2%ECU -35.5ECU -31.0NCCU +4.552%56.552.1U +4.452%ECU ▲1.0Over ▲1.54-10000 fanduel—
VAN at AUBCFBSat 4:15 PMVAN70%25%+45.5%AUB -9.5VAN -9.2VAN +18.756%55U 55.5 · draftkings52.9U +2.151%Over ▲0.57+300 hardrockbet—
WIS at #13 PSUCFBSat 5:00 PMPSU87%77%+10.5%PSU -10PSU -9.5 · fanduelPSU -19.4PSU +9.453%44.5U 45 · pinnacle44.4U +0.150%Under ▼0.8 ⚡7-375 betmgm—
NEB at MSUCFBSat 5:00 PMNEB66%66%-0.2%MSU +5.5NEB -7.0NEB +1.551%48.552.3O +3.851%Over ▲0.87-205 fanduel—
USF at BGSUCFBSat 5:00 PMUSF93%87%+6.0%BGSU +17.5USF -25.7USF +8.253%49O 48.5 · pinnacle54.3O +5.352%USF ▼0.5Under ▼0.37-900 betmgm—
DEL at #25 UVACFBSat 6:00 PMUVA81%89%-8.3%UVA -19.5DEL +20 · pinnacleUVA -15.2DEL +4.352%52.549.7U +2.851%—7-1200 betmgm—
JMU at ODUCFBSat 6:00 PMJMU72%66%+6.1%ODU +6JMU -5.5 · fanduelJMU -10.3JMU +4.351%44.547.9O +3.451%JMU ▼1.3Under ▼3.07-215 betonlineag—
UIW at TXSTCFBSat 6:00 PMTXST97%94%+2.5%TXST -30.5TXST -32.0TXST +1.551%65.2563.0U +2.251%Over ▲0.54-4500 fanduel—
LIU at FIUCFBSat 6:00 PMFIU86%97%-10.9%FIU -35LIU +35.5 · draftkingsFIU -18.6LIU +16.456%53U 53.5 · fanduel46.7U +6.352%FIU ▲1.0Over ▲1.04-8000 fanduel—
UL at CLTCFBSat 6:30 PMUL81%77%+4.2%CLT +10UL -15.4UL +5.452%48.5O 48 · betonlineag50.0O +1.551%Under ▼0.87-410 betonlineag—
CMU at #6 MIACFBSat 6:30 PMMIA97%——MIA -41.5MIA -33.5CMU +8.053%53.5U 54.5 · draftkings43.2U +10.354%MIA ▲1.3Over ▲0.57——
SC at #8 ALACFBSat 7:00 PMALA82%80%+1.7%ALA -12.5ALA -15.5ALA +3.051%53.559.1O +5.652%Under ▼0.57-485 draftkings—
KSU at CINCFBSat 7:00 PMKSU52%67%-15.2%CIN +6.5KSU -0.8CIN +5.752%55.5O 55 · pinnacle61.5O +6.052%Over ▲1.0 ⚡7-228 pinnacle—
OKST at WVUCFBSat 7:00 PMWVU73%53%+19.5%WVU -1.5WVU -10.4WVU +8.953%60.5U 61 · pinnacle54.6U +5.952%Over ▲1.07-123 betonlineag—
USM at TULNCFBSat 7:00 PMTULN87%88%-1.0%TULN -17.5TULN -19.0TULN +1.551%52.547.1U +5.452%Over ▲0.5 ⚡7-1000 betonlineag—
KENN at ARSTCFBSat 7:00 PMARST54%68%-13.8%ARST -6.5ARST -1.8KENN +4.752%52.5U 53 · bovada50.9U +1.651%ARST ▲2.3Under ▼0.87-235 betmgm—
MERC at WKUCFBSat 7:00 PMWKU92%97%-5.7%WKU -40.5WKU -23.7MERC +16.856%57.5O 56.5 · fanduel64.1O +6.652%WKU ▲2.0Over ▲2.04-20000 fanduel—
MTSU at JVSTCFBSat 7:00 PMJVST67%71%-4.5%JVST -7JVST -7.4JVST +0.450%51.5O 51 · pinnacle53.8O +2.351%MTSU ▼0.8 ⚡Under ▼0.57-280 fanduel—
#20 ORE at #12 USCCFBSat 7:30 PMORE55%58%-3.4%USC +3ORE -2.1USC +0.950%62.5O 62 · pinnacle70.9O +8.453%ORE ▼0.5 ⚡Over ▲0.57-150 bovada—
#23 TA&M at #10 LSUCFBSat 7:30 PMLSU59%75%-16.7%LSU -9.5LSU -3.7TA&M +5.852%51.551.9O +0.450%TA&M ▼0.3Under ▼1.0 ⚡7-350 betmgm—
APP at NCSUCFBSat 7:30 PMNCSU72%82%-10.6%NCSU -14APP +14.5 · fanduelNCSU -9.9APP +4.151%55.5O 55 · pinnacle57.2O +1.751%NCSU ▲0.5 ⚡Under7-600 betonlineag—
ARIZ at WSUCFBSat 7:30 PMARIZ62%78%-15.8%WSU +10.5ARIZ -5.3WSU +5.252%48.542.9U +5.652%WSUOver ▲1.07-410 draftkings—
TROY at USUCFBSat 7:30 PMTROY64%43%+21.1%USU -3TROY -6.0TROY +9.053%47.539.3U +8.253%USU ▲0.8 ⚡Under ▼2.57+130 hardrockbet—
HCU at UNTCFBSat 7:30 PMUNT98%98%-0.1%UNT -39HCU +39.5 · draftkingsUNT -35.8HCU +3.251%59O 58.5 · draftkings68.4O +9.453%UNT ▲2.0Under4-100000 draftkings—
#19 MIZ at #24 MSSTCFBSat 7:45 PMMIZ53%34%+19.6%MSST -6MIZ +6.5 · pinnacleMIZ -1.4MIZ +7.453%58.5O 58 · pinnacle62.6O +4.151%—7+195 draftkings—
FAU at ULMCFBSat 8:00 PMFAU82%80%+2.3%ULM +13FAU -12.5 · fanduelFAU -15.9FAU +2.951%57.5O 57 · pinnacle59.4O +1.951%FAU7-465 fanduel—
TLSA at ARKCFBSat 8:00 PMARK67%70%-3.5%ARK -7ARK -7.5ARK +0.550%50.552.4O +1.951%Under ▼2.37-270 betonlineag—
MOST at #22 SMUCFBSat 9:00 PMSMU92%96%-4.3%SMU -34.5MOST +35 · pinnacleSMU -24.3MOST +10.254%60O 59.5 · draftkings61.1O +1.150%Over ▲1.07-7000 fanduel—
MASS at SACCFBSat 9:00 PMMASS51%63%-11.5%SAC +4MASS -0.5SAC +3.551%48.550.3O +1.851%SAC ▲1.87-180 betonlineag—
ORST at UTEPCFBSat 9:00 PMUTEP51%21%+29.8%UTEP +10.5UTEP +11.5 · hardrockbetUTEP -0.3UTEP +10.854%56O 55.5 · pinnacle62.4O +6.452%UTEP ▲1.0Over ▲1.3 ⚡7+375 fanduel—
RICE at FRESCFBSat 10:00 PMFRES83%82%+1.0%FRES -13.5FRES -16.1FRES +2.651%44.538.9U +5.652%—7-550 draftkings—
AFA at NEVCFBSat 10:30 PMAFA62%66%-4.0%NEV +5.5AFA -5.4NEV +0.150%49.5U 50.5 · fanduel44.4U +5.152%AFA ▼1.3Over ▲0.57-220 fanduel—
GT at STANCFBSat 10:30 PMSTAN51%39%+11.7%STAN +3.5STAN -0.3STAN +3.851%48O 47.5 · draftkings49.2O +1.250%—7+147 pinnacle—
MINN at #19 WASHCFBSat 11:00 PMWASH87%76%+10.9%WASH -10WASH -9.5 · fanduelWASH -19.4WASH +9.453%45.545.6O +0.150%WASH ▲1.3Over ▲0.57-375 betmgm—
LAC at BUFNFLSun 1:00 PMBUF83%74%+8.8%BUF -7.5BUF -7 · draftkingsBUF -13.0BUF +5.552%50U 50.5 · draftkings46.2U +3.852%BUF ▲0.57-337 pinnacle—
CAR at CLENFLSun 1:00 PMCLE55%43%+12.0%CLE +2.5CLE -1.6CLE +4.152%42U 42.5 · draftkings41.1U +0.950%CLE ▲0.5Over ▲2.3 ⚡7+130 bovada—
NYJ at DETNFLSun 1:00 PMDET78%72%+5.6%DET -6.5DET -10.3DET +3.852%47.550.3O +2.851%—7-290 bovada—
HOU at INDNFLSun 1:00 PMHOU56%54%+1.7%IND +1.5HOU -1.9HOU +0.450%42.552.5O +10.054%IND ▲1.3Under ▼1.37-121 betonlineag—
KC at MIANFLSun 1:00 PMKC61%83%-22.3%MIA +10.5MIA +11.5 · pinnacleKC -3.8MIA +6.753%46U 46.5 · hardrockbet41.2U +4.852%KCOver ▲0.87-625 pinnacle—
TEN at NYGNFLSun 1:00 PMNYG70%56%+14.1%NYG -2.5NYG -7.1NYG +4.652%38.536.9U +1.651%TEN ▼2.0Under ▼3.07-130 draftkings—
CIN at PITNFLSun 1:00 PMPIT50%37%+13.4%PIT +3.5PIT -0.1PIT +3.652%42.5U 43 · pinnacle40.7U +1.851%Under ▼0.57+165 betonlineag—
SEA at WSHNFLSun 1:00 PMSEA81%75%+5.4%WSH +7.5SEA -11.6SEA +4.152%40.540.1U +0.450%SEA ▼3.0Under ▼0.8 ⚡7-347 pinnacle—
NE at JAXNFLSun 1:00 PMJAX56%58%-2.7%JAX -3JAX -1.9NE +1.150%45.5U 46 · betonlineag38.7U +6.853%Over ▲0.57-154 pinnacle—
ARI at SFNFLSun 4:05 PMSF80%78%+2.0%SF -8.5SF -11.5SF +3.051%47.547.7O +0.250%—7-388 pinnacle—
MIN at TBNFLSun 4:05 PMMIN71%53%+17.7%TB +1.5MIN -1 · bovadaMIN -7.4MIN +5.953%42.5U 43 · pinnacle36.3U +6.253%TB ▲0.5Under ▼1.07-117 pinnacle—
BAL vs DALNFLSun 4:25 PMBAL61%62%-1.6%DAL +3.5BAL -3 · betonlineagBAL -3.7BAL +0.250%52.553.7O +1.251%Over ▲0.87-174 fanduel—
LV at NONFLSun 4:25 PMNO64%62%+2.3%NO -3NO -4.8NO +1.851%43.5U 44 · pinnacle41.4U +2.151%—7-172 fanduel—
LAR at DENNFLSun 8:20 PMDEN58%45%+13.5%DEN +2.5DEN -2.8DEN +5.352%44.5U 45 · pinnacle40.5U +4.052%Under ▼0.87+122 betonlineag—
PHI at CHINFLMon 8:15 PMPHI54%67%-13.1%CHI +4.5CHI +5.5 · hardrockbetPHI -1.3CHI +3.251%41.5O 41 · bovada43.4O +1.951%PHI ▼4.0Under ▼4.5 ⚡7-223 pinnacle—

Market numbers are the multi-book consensus, refreshed hourly; the winner market probability is devigged from the consensus moneyline. Cover and over probabilities are the model’s lean on each number. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are leans tracked in public. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.