Predictions · Football board
The model against the live lines
NFL week 3 and college week 4. Click a column to sort. Every edge column is the model’s number minus the market’s: for the winner it is the gap in win probability (model 60% against a market 50% shows as +10%), for the spread and total it is points, shown for the side the model takes. Bigger gaps deserve more skepticism, not less.
| Pick | Best ML | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIB | 55% | 56% | -1.1% | CCU +2.5 | LIB -2.2 | CCU +0.3 | 50% | 50.5 | 50.8 | O +0.3 | 50% | LIB ▼0.5Under ▼2.0 ⚡ | 7 | -134 fanduel | In progress | |
| GB | 71% | 68% | +2.5% | GB -4.5 | GB -7.5 | GB +3.0 | 51% | 43.5 | 44.2 | O +0.7 | 50% | ATL ▼2.8Under ▼1.0 ⚡ | 7 | -238 draftkings | In progress | |
| ARMY | 65% | 58% | +6.5% | TEM +3ARMY -2.5 · hardrockbet | ARMY -6.5 | ARMY +3.5 | 51% | 48.5O 48 · pinnacle | 48.9 | O +0.4 | 50% | Under ▼0.5 | 7 | -150 bovada | — | |
| RUTG | 86% | — | — | RUTG -43.5 | RUTG -18.3 | HOW +25.2 | 59% | 55.5O 55 · pinnacle | 58.6 | O +3.1 | 51% | RUTG ▲0.5Over ▲1.0 | 4 | — | — | |
| NAVY | 66% | 69% | -2.7% | UAB +6.5NAVY -6 · betonlineag | NAVY -7.3 | NAVY +0.8 | 50% | 51.5O 51 · bovada | 52.7 | O +1.2 | 50% | UAB ▲1.3 | 7 | -250 bovada | — | |
| IU | 95% | 91% | +3.9% | IU -20.5IU -20 · betonlineag | IU -28.3 | IU +7.8 | 53% | 49.5U 50 · pinnacle | 46.9 | U +2.6 | 51% | NU ▼2.0 | 7 | -1600 betmgm | — | |
| CLEM | 60% | 51% | +8.8% | CAL +1CLEM PK · betonlineag | CLEM -4.3 | CLEM +3.3 | 51% | 50.5 | 51.0 | O +0.5 | 50% | CLEM ▼1.0 ⚡ | 7 | -112 pinnacle | — | |
| OSU | 86% | 94% | -7.9% | OSU -27ILL +27.5 · draftkings | OSU -18.9 | ILL +8.1 | 53% | 53.5U 54.5 · fanduel | 50.0 | U +3.5 | 51% | ILL ▼0.3 | 7 | -4000 draftkings | — | |
| TTU | 98% | 98% | +0.4% | TTU -34.5TTU -34 · betonlineag | TTU -43.0 | TTU +8.5 | 53% | 55.5U 56.5 · betonlineag | 47.5 | U +8.0 | 53% | SHSU ▼1.3Over ▲1.3 | 7 | -30000 fanduel | — | |
| LOU | 73% | 82% | -8.4% | LOU -13.5WAKE +14 · bovada | LOU -10.7 | WAKE +2.8 | 51% | 57O 56.5 · draftkings | 62.1 | O +5.1 | 52% | LOU ▲0.8 ⚡Under ▼1.0 ⚡ | 7 | -540 betonlineag | — | |
| BAY | 70% | 76% | -5.7% | BAY -9.5COLO +10 · betonlineag | BAY -9.0 | COLO +0.5 | 50% | 55.5 | 53.4 | U +2.1 | 51% | Over ▲0.5 | 7 | -375 betmgm | — | |
| VT | 65% | 82% | -17.0% | BC +14BC +14.5 · fanduel | VT -6.7 | BC +7.3 | 53% | 47.5U 48 · pinnacle | 47.0 | U +0.5 | 50% | Under ▼5.5 | 7 | -590 betonlineag | — | |
| TOL | 71% | 57% | +13.7% | TOL -3TOL -2.5 · fanduel | TOL -9.5 | TOL +6.5 | 52% | 51.5O 51 · betonlineag | 53.0 | O +1.5 | 51% | TOL ▲0.5 ⚡Over ▲1.3 | 7 | -145 bovada | — | |
| UTSA | 86% | 81% | +4.5% | UTSA -13.5 | UTSA -18.5 | UTSA +5.0 | 52% | 58.5O 57.5 · fanduel | 61.9 | O +3.4 | 51% | UTSA ▲0.8Over ▲0.5 | 7 | -550 betonlineag | — | |
| UNLV | 77% | 81% | -3.9% | AKR +13.5 | UNLV -12.7 | AKR +0.8 | 50% | 52.5U 53 · bovada | 47.4 | U +5.1 | 52% | Over ▲2.3 | 7 | -525 betonlineag | — | |
| KENT | 65% | 58% | +6.7% | KENT -3KENT -2.5 · hardrockbet | KENT -6.6 | KENT +3.6 | 51% | 50.5 | 61.7 | O +11.2 | 54% | Over ▲1.5 | 7 | -144 fanduel | — | |
| TEX | 59% | 63% | -4.4% | TENN +4TENN +4.5 · fanduel | TEX -3.8 | TENN +0.2 | 50% | 55.5O 55 · betonlineag | 58.9 | O +3.4 | 51% | TENN ▲0.5 ⚡Under ▼0.5 | 7 | -182 fanduel | — | |
| PITT | 98% | — | — | PITT -52.5 | PITT -38.6 | BUCK +13.9 | 55% | 62.75U 63.5 · draftkings | 54.5 | U +8.3 | 53% | Over ▲1.5 | 4 | — | — | |
| UK | 77% | 90% | -12.7% | UK -20.5 | UK -12.8 | USA +7.7 | 53% | 54.5 | 59.7 | O +5.2 | 52% | — | 7 | -1200 hardrockbet | — | |
| EMU | 78% | 95% | -17.8% | EMU -26LIN +26.5 · fanduel | EMU -13.0 | LIN +13.0 | 54% | 49.5 | 52.0 | O +2.5 | 51% | LIN ▼1.0 | 4 | -4000 hardrockbet | — | |
| MD | 50% | 48% | +2.2% | MD +1.5 | PK | MD +1.5 | 51% | 56.5U 57 · pinnacle | 52.7 | U +3.8 | 51% | MD ▲1.0Under ▼1.3 ⚡ | 7 | +104 pinnacle | — | |
| ND | 93% | 94% | -1.5% | PUR +28PUR +28.5 · hardrockbet | ND -25.2 | PUR +2.8 | 51% | 58.5O 57.5 · pinnacle | 65.1 | O +6.6 | 52% | ND ▼0.8Under ▲0.3 | 7 | -4500 draftkings | — | |
| GAST | 66% | 77% | -11.1% | GAST -10.5 | GAST -6.9 | NIU +3.6 | 51% | 56O 55.5 · fanduel | 57.2 | O +1.2 | 50% | GAST ▲0.5Over ▲1.0 | 7 | -375 betonlineag | — | |
| FSU | 95% | — | — | FSU -45.5 | FSU -29.1 | CARK +16.4 | 56% | 61.5U 62.5 · fanduel | 59.7 | U +1.8 | 51% | FSU ▲1.0Over ▲2.0 | 4 | — | — | |
| HAW | 70% | 59% | +11.2% | WYO +3HAW -2.5 · hardrockbet | HAW -9.1 | HAW +6.1 | 52% | 43.5U 44 · pinnacle | 32.9 | U +10.6 | 54% | WYO ▲0.5 ⚡Under ▼1.8 | 7 | -150 fanduel | — | |
| UGA | 75% | 82% | -6.4% | UGA -13.5OU +14 · pinnacle | UGA -11.8 | OU +1.7 | 51% | 44.5 | 45.7 | O +1.2 | 50% | Over ▲0.8 | 7 | -550 draftkings | — | |
| MISS | 79% | 40% | +38.5% | FLA -3.5 | MISS -13.6 | MISS +17.1 | 56% | 59O 58.5 · betmgm | 67.0 | O +8.0 | 53% | Under ▼1.3 ⚡ | 7 | +147 betonlineag | — | |
| MICH | 51% | 66% | -15.1% | MICH -5.5 | MICH -0.3 | IOWA +5.2 | 52% | 38.5 | 42.7 | O +4.2 | 51% | MICH ▲0.8Over ▲0.8 ⚡ | 7 | -210 betonlineag | — | |
| UTAH | 69% | 74% | -4.7% | ISU +8UTAH -7.5 · draftkings | UTAH -8.7 | UTAH +0.7 | 50% | 47.5 | 52.9 | O +5.4 | 52% | ISU ▲0.8 ⚡Under ▼1.0 | 7 | -325 betmgm | — | |
| TCU | 52% | 58% | -6.5% | UCF +3UCF +3.5 · fanduel | TCU -0.8 | UCF +2.2 | 51% | 48.5 | 48.5 | U +0.0 | 50% | Under ▼1.0 ⚡ | 7 | -154 pinnacle | — | |
| BOIS | 55% | 71% | -15.6% | WMU +7WMU +7.5 · pinnacle | BOIS -2.3 | WMU +4.7 | 52% | 49.5U 50 · bovada | 49.0 | U +0.5 | 50% | Over ▲0.8 | 7 | -275 fanduel | — | |
| CONN | 54% | 38% | +15.6% | M-OH -3.5CONN +4 · betonlineag | CONN -1.7 | CONN +5.2 | 52% | 51.5 | 61.2 | O +9.7 | 53% | CONN ▼1.0 ⚡Over ▲1.3 | 7 | +160 bovada | — | |
| DUKE | 98% | — | — | DUKE -43.5 | DUKE -37.7 | W&M +5.8 | 52% | 62.5 | 58.8 | U +3.7 | 51% | Over ▲1.0 | 4 | — | — | |
| UNM | 73% | 79% | -5.7% | NMSU +11.5 | UNM -10.7 | NMSU +0.8 | 50% | 48.5 | 49.8 | O +1.3 | 50% | NMSU ▲1.0 ⚡ | 7 | -450 betmgm | — | |
| BUFF | 84% | 95% | -11.2% | BUFF -28.5RMU +29.5 · hardrockbet | BUFF -17.2 | RMU +11.3 | 54% | 45.5O 45 · betonlineag | 52.9 | O +7.4 | 53% | Over ▲0.5 | 4 | -6500 draftkings | — | |
| OHIO | 93% | 97% | -4.3% | OHIO -33STO +33.5 · draftkings | OHIO -25.6 | STO +7.4 | 53% | 52.5O 51.5 · hardrockbet | 57.4 | O +4.9 | 52% | OHIOOver ▲1.5 | 4 | -20000 draftkings | — | |
| MRSH | 93% | 94% | -0.4% | MRSH -24MRSH -23.5 · draftkings | MRSH -25.6 | MRSH +1.6 | 51% | 50.5 | 56.7 | O +6.2 | 52% | GWEB | 4 | -2500 hardrockbet | — | |
| HOU | 79% | 87% | -8.6% | GASO +18GASO +18.5 · fanduel | HOU -13.7 | GASO +4.3 | 51% | 56.5 | 55.9 | U +0.6 | 50% | GASO ▲0.8Over ▲1.5 | 7 | -1000 betonlineag | — | |
| ECU | 96% | 96% | +0.2% | ECU -35.5 | ECU -31.0 | NCCU +4.5 | 52% | 56.5 | 52.1 | U +4.4 | 52% | ECU ▲1.0Over ▲1.5 | 4 | -10000 fanduel | — | |
| VAN | 70% | 25% | +45.5% | AUB -9.5 | VAN -9.2 | VAN +18.7 | 56% | 55U 55.5 · draftkings | 52.9 | U +2.1 | 51% | Over ▲0.5 | 7 | +300 hardrockbet | — | |
| PSU | 87% | 77% | +10.5% | PSU -10PSU -9.5 · fanduel | PSU -19.4 | PSU +9.4 | 53% | 44.5U 45 · pinnacle | 44.4 | U +0.1 | 50% | Under ▼0.8 ⚡ | 7 | -375 betmgm | — | |
| NEB | 66% | 66% | -0.2% | MSU +5.5 | NEB -7.0 | NEB +1.5 | 51% | 48.5 | 52.3 | O +3.8 | 51% | Over ▲0.8 | 7 | -205 fanduel | — | |
| USF | 93% | 87% | +6.0% | BGSU +17.5 | USF -25.7 | USF +8.2 | 53% | 49O 48.5 · pinnacle | 54.3 | O +5.3 | 52% | USF ▼0.5Under ▼0.3 | 7 | -900 betmgm | — | |
| UVA | 81% | 89% | -8.3% | UVA -19.5DEL +20 · pinnacle | UVA -15.2 | DEL +4.3 | 52% | 52.5 | 49.7 | U +2.8 | 51% | — | 7 | -1200 betmgm | — | |
| JMU | 72% | 66% | +6.1% | ODU +6JMU -5.5 · fanduel | JMU -10.3 | JMU +4.3 | 51% | 44.5 | 47.9 | O +3.4 | 51% | JMU ▼1.3Under ▼3.0 | 7 | -215 betonlineag | — | |
| TXST | 97% | 94% | +2.5% | TXST -30.5 | TXST -32.0 | TXST +1.5 | 51% | 65.25 | 63.0 | U +2.2 | 51% | Over ▲0.5 | 4 | -4500 fanduel | — | |
| FIU | 86% | 97% | -10.9% | FIU -35LIU +35.5 · draftkings | FIU -18.6 | LIU +16.4 | 56% | 53U 53.5 · fanduel | 46.7 | U +6.3 | 52% | FIU ▲1.0Over ▲1.0 | 4 | -8000 fanduel | — | |
| UL | 81% | 77% | +4.2% | CLT +10 | UL -15.4 | UL +5.4 | 52% | 48.5O 48 · betonlineag | 50.0 | O +1.5 | 51% | Under ▼0.8 | 7 | -410 betonlineag | — | |
| MIA | 97% | — | — | MIA -41.5 | MIA -33.5 | CMU +8.0 | 53% | 53.5U 54.5 · draftkings | 43.2 | U +10.3 | 54% | MIA ▲1.3Over ▲0.5 | 7 | — | — | |
| ALA | 82% | 80% | +1.7% | ALA -12.5 | ALA -15.5 | ALA +3.0 | 51% | 53.5 | 59.1 | O +5.6 | 52% | Under ▼0.5 | 7 | -485 draftkings | — | |
| KSU | 52% | 67% | -15.2% | CIN +6.5 | KSU -0.8 | CIN +5.7 | 52% | 55.5O 55 · pinnacle | 61.5 | O +6.0 | 52% | Over ▲1.0 ⚡ | 7 | -228 pinnacle | — | |
| WVU | 73% | 53% | +19.5% | WVU -1.5 | WVU -10.4 | WVU +8.9 | 53% | 60.5U 61 · pinnacle | 54.6 | U +5.9 | 52% | Over ▲1.0 | 7 | -123 betonlineag | — | |
| TULN | 87% | 88% | -1.0% | TULN -17.5 | TULN -19.0 | TULN +1.5 | 51% | 52.5 | 47.1 | U +5.4 | 52% | Over ▲0.5 ⚡ | 7 | -1000 betonlineag | — | |
| ARST | 54% | 68% | -13.8% | ARST -6.5 | ARST -1.8 | KENN +4.7 | 52% | 52.5U 53 · bovada | 50.9 | U +1.6 | 51% | ARST ▲2.3Under ▼0.8 | 7 | -235 betmgm | — | |
| WKU | 92% | 97% | -5.7% | WKU -40.5 | WKU -23.7 | MERC +16.8 | 56% | 57.5O 56.5 · fanduel | 64.1 | O +6.6 | 52% | WKU ▲2.0Over ▲2.0 | 4 | -20000 fanduel | — | |
| JVST | 67% | 71% | -4.5% | JVST -7 | JVST -7.4 | JVST +0.4 | 50% | 51.5O 51 · pinnacle | 53.8 | O +2.3 | 51% | MTSU ▼0.8 ⚡Under ▼0.5 | 7 | -280 fanduel | — | |
| ORE | 55% | 58% | -3.4% | USC +3 | ORE -2.1 | USC +0.9 | 50% | 62.5O 62 · pinnacle | 70.9 | O +8.4 | 53% | ORE ▼0.5 ⚡Over ▲0.5 | 7 | -150 bovada | — | |
| LSU | 59% | 75% | -16.7% | LSU -9.5 | LSU -3.7 | TA&M +5.8 | 52% | 51.5 | 51.9 | O +0.4 | 50% | TA&M ▼0.3Under ▼1.0 ⚡ | 7 | -350 betmgm | — | |
| NCSU | 72% | 82% | -10.6% | NCSU -14APP +14.5 · fanduel | NCSU -9.9 | APP +4.1 | 51% | 55.5O 55 · pinnacle | 57.2 | O +1.7 | 51% | NCSU ▲0.5 ⚡Under | 7 | -600 betonlineag | — | |
| ARIZ | 62% | 78% | -15.8% | WSU +10.5 | ARIZ -5.3 | WSU +5.2 | 52% | 48.5 | 42.9 | U +5.6 | 52% | WSUOver ▲1.0 | 7 | -410 draftkings | — | |
| TROY | 64% | 43% | +21.1% | USU -3 | TROY -6.0 | TROY +9.0 | 53% | 47.5 | 39.3 | U +8.2 | 53% | USU ▲0.8 ⚡Under ▼2.5 | 7 | +130 hardrockbet | — | |
| UNT | 98% | 98% | -0.1% | UNT -39HCU +39.5 · draftkings | UNT -35.8 | HCU +3.2 | 51% | 59O 58.5 · draftkings | 68.4 | O +9.4 | 53% | UNT ▲2.0Under | 4 | -100000 draftkings | — | |
| MIZ | 53% | 34% | +19.6% | MSST -6MIZ +6.5 · pinnacle | MIZ -1.4 | MIZ +7.4 | 53% | 58.5O 58 · pinnacle | 62.6 | O +4.1 | 51% | — | 7 | +195 draftkings | — | |
| FAU | 82% | 80% | +2.3% | ULM +13FAU -12.5 · fanduel | FAU -15.9 | FAU +2.9 | 51% | 57.5O 57 · pinnacle | 59.4 | O +1.9 | 51% | FAU | 7 | -465 fanduel | — | |
| TLSA at ARKCFBSat 8:00 PM | ARK | 67% | 70% | -3.5% | ARK -7 | ARK -7.5 | ARK +0.5 | 50% | 50.5 | 52.4 | O +1.9 | 51% | Under ▼2.3 | 7 | -270 betonlineag | — |
| SMU | 92% | 96% | -4.3% | SMU -34.5MOST +35 · pinnacle | SMU -24.3 | MOST +10.2 | 54% | 60O 59.5 · draftkings | 61.1 | O +1.1 | 50% | Over ▲1.0 | 7 | -7000 fanduel | — | |
| MASS | 51% | 63% | -11.5% | SAC +4 | MASS -0.5 | SAC +3.5 | 51% | 48.5 | 50.3 | O +1.8 | 51% | SAC ▲1.8 | 7 | -180 betonlineag | — | |
| UTEP | 51% | 21% | +29.8% | UTEP +10.5UTEP +11.5 · hardrockbet | UTEP -0.3 | UTEP +10.8 | 54% | 56O 55.5 · pinnacle | 62.4 | O +6.4 | 52% | UTEP ▲1.0Over ▲1.3 ⚡ | 7 | +375 fanduel | — | |
| FRES | 83% | 82% | +1.0% | FRES -13.5 | FRES -16.1 | FRES +2.6 | 51% | 44.5 | 38.9 | U +5.6 | 52% | — | 7 | -550 draftkings | — | |
| AFA | 62% | 66% | -4.0% | NEV +5.5 | AFA -5.4 | NEV +0.1 | 50% | 49.5U 50.5 · fanduel | 44.4 | U +5.1 | 52% | AFA ▼1.3Over ▲0.5 | 7 | -220 fanduel | — | |
| STAN | 51% | 39% | +11.7% | STAN +3.5 | STAN -0.3 | STAN +3.8 | 51% | 48O 47.5 · draftkings | 49.2 | O +1.2 | 50% | — | 7 | +147 pinnacle | — | |
| WASH | 87% | 76% | +10.9% | WASH -10WASH -9.5 · fanduel | WASH -19.4 | WASH +9.4 | 53% | 45.5 | 45.6 | O +0.1 | 50% | WASH ▲1.3Over ▲0.5 | 7 | -375 betmgm | — | |
| BUF | 83% | 74% | +8.8% | BUF -7.5BUF -7 · draftkings | BUF -13.0 | BUF +5.5 | 52% | 50U 50.5 · draftkings | 46.2 | U +3.8 | 52% | BUF ▲0.5 | 7 | -337 pinnacle | — | |
| CLE | 55% | 43% | +12.0% | CLE +2.5 | CLE -1.6 | CLE +4.1 | 52% | 42U 42.5 · draftkings | 41.1 | U +0.9 | 50% | CLE ▲0.5Over ▲2.3 ⚡ | 7 | +130 bovada | — | |
| DET | 78% | 72% | +5.6% | DET -6.5 | DET -10.3 | DET +3.8 | 52% | 47.5 | 50.3 | O +2.8 | 51% | — | 7 | -290 bovada | — | |
| HOU | 56% | 54% | +1.7% | IND +1.5 | HOU -1.9 | HOU +0.4 | 50% | 42.5 | 52.5 | O +10.0 | 54% | IND ▲1.3Under ▼1.3 | 7 | -121 betonlineag | — | |
| KC | 61% | 83% | -22.3% | MIA +10.5MIA +11.5 · pinnacle | KC -3.8 | MIA +6.7 | 53% | 46U 46.5 · hardrockbet | 41.2 | U +4.8 | 52% | KCOver ▲0.8 | 7 | -625 pinnacle | — | |
| NYG | 70% | 56% | +14.1% | NYG -2.5 | NYG -7.1 | NYG +4.6 | 52% | 38.5 | 36.9 | U +1.6 | 51% | TEN ▼2.0Under ▼3.0 | 7 | -130 draftkings | — | |
| PIT | 50% | 37% | +13.4% | PIT +3.5 | PIT -0.1 | PIT +3.6 | 52% | 42.5U 43 · pinnacle | 40.7 | U +1.8 | 51% | Under ▼0.5 | 7 | +165 betonlineag | — | |
| SEA | 81% | 75% | +5.4% | WSH +7.5 | SEA -11.6 | SEA +4.1 | 52% | 40.5 | 40.1 | U +0.4 | 50% | SEA ▼3.0Under ▼0.8 ⚡ | 7 | -347 pinnacle | — | |
| JAX | 56% | 58% | -2.7% | JAX -3 | JAX -1.9 | NE +1.1 | 50% | 45.5U 46 · betonlineag | 38.7 | U +6.8 | 53% | Over ▲0.5 | 7 | -154 pinnacle | — | |
| SF | 80% | 78% | +2.0% | SF -8.5 | SF -11.5 | SF +3.0 | 51% | 47.5 | 47.7 | O +0.2 | 50% | — | 7 | -388 pinnacle | — | |
| MIN | 71% | 53% | +17.7% | TB +1.5MIN -1 · bovada | MIN -7.4 | MIN +5.9 | 53% | 42.5U 43 · pinnacle | 36.3 | U +6.2 | 53% | TB ▲0.5Under ▼1.0 | 7 | -117 pinnacle | — | |
| BAL | 61% | 62% | -1.6% | DAL +3.5BAL -3 · betonlineag | BAL -3.7 | BAL +0.2 | 50% | 52.5 | 53.7 | O +1.2 | 51% | Over ▲0.8 | 7 | -174 fanduel | — | |
| NO | 64% | 62% | +2.3% | NO -3 | NO -4.8 | NO +1.8 | 51% | 43.5U 44 · pinnacle | 41.4 | U +2.1 | 51% | — | 7 | -172 fanduel | — | |
| DEN | 58% | 45% | +13.5% | DEN +2.5 | DEN -2.8 | DEN +5.3 | 52% | 44.5U 45 · pinnacle | 40.5 | U +4.0 | 52% | Under ▼0.8 | 7 | +122 betonlineag | — | |
| PHI | 54% | 67% | -13.1% | CHI +4.5CHI +5.5 · hardrockbet | PHI -1.3 | CHI +3.2 | 51% | 41.5O 41 · bovada | 43.4 | O +1.9 | 51% | PHI ▼4.0Under ▼4.5 ⚡ | 7 | -223 pinnacle | — |
Market numbers are the multi-book consensus, refreshed hourly; the winner market probability is devigged from the consensus moneyline. Cover and over probabilities are the model’s lean on each number. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are leans tracked in public. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.