The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
57%UTSA RoadrunnersLean✓
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: UTSA Roadrunners 50%.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
UTSA by 0.0market UTSA by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
51.3 pointsmarket 52.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has UTSA Roadrunners at 57% to win, with the market at UTSA by 3.
UTSA has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: UTSA third-down conversion ranks #52, TULN defends it at #135; the other way TULN #87 into UTSA's #75.
UTSA has the advantage in rushing: UTSA rushing ranks #16, TULN defends it at #89; the other way TULN #67 into UTSA's #100.
Counterpoint: big plays favours TULN. TULN pass explosiveness ranks #20, UTSA defends it at #78; the other way UTSA #114 into TULN's #63. The pick still lands on UTSA because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: UTSA has the better last five games by 14.0 points a game (TULN -4.0, UTSA +10.0).
Home field is with TULN, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it UTSA by 0.0 against a market UTSA by 3: 3.0 points of daylight in TULN's favour. The model's total is 51.3 against a line of 52.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model UTSA by 0.0 · market UTSA by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
UTSA passing ranks #80, TULN defends it at #59; the other way TULN #103 into UTSA's #69.
Rushing game
UTSA
Slight advantage
UTSA rushing ranks #16, TULN defends it at #89; the other way TULN #67 into UTSA's #100.
Third down & red zone
UTSA
Slight advantage
UTSA third-down conversion ranks #52, TULN defends it at #135; the other way TULN #87 into UTSA's #75.
Big plays
TULN
Clear advantage
TULN pass explosiveness ranks #20, UTSA defends it at #78; the other way UTSA #114 into TULN's #63.
Pass protection & rush
UTSA
Slight advantage
UTSA sack rate ranks #38, TULN defends it at #82; the other way TULN #105 into UTSA's #124.
Ball security
UTSA
Clear advantage
UTSA turnovers / game ranks #27, TULN defends it at #46; the other way TULN #117 into UTSA's #27.
Form (last 5)
UTSA
Clear advantage
TULN −4.0 per game over the last five, UTSA +10.0.
Market
UTSA
Slight advantage
Consensus has UTSA by 3; the model says UTSA by 0.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,332 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket UTSA by 3 · model UTSA by 0.0
Mkt UTSA 3
Model UTSA 0.0
← UTSA by 28tieTULN by 28 →
3.0% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 9.7% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.7%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 52.5 · model 51.3
Mkt 52.5
Model 51.3
24 pts6096 pts
2.4% of FBS games finish between 52.5 and 51.3. The league’s median total since 2023 is 52.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: UTSAModel disagrees
Opened
UTSA -2.5
→
Market maker now
UTSA -3
▼ 0.5 since open
→
Retail now
UTSA -3
in line
22 moves8 books2 led
Thu, Oct 22, 10:11 PM first sharp move: UTSA -2.5 → UTSA -3
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still UTSA -2.5 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the overModel disagrees
Opened
51.5
→
Market maker now
52.3
▲ 0.8 since open
→
Retail now
52.5
in line
12 moves8 books2 led
Sat, Oct 24, 4:10 AM first sharp move: 51.5 → 52
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 51.5 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
