The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
77%Florida International PanthersStrong✗
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: Florida International Panthers 71%.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
FIU by 9.5market FIU by 10.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
43.8 pointsmarket 46.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Florida International Panthers at 77% to win, with the market at FIU by 10.5.
FIU has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: FIU third-down conversion ranks #27, MTSU defends it at #98; the other way MTSU #136 into FIU's #5.
FIU has the advantage in passing: FIU passing ranks #95, MTSU defends it at #74; the other way MTSU #76 into FIU's #20.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours MTSU. MTSU turnovers / game ranks #14, FIU defends it at #76; the other way FIU #101 into MTSU's #64. The pick still lands on FIU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: FIU has the better last five games by 15.2 points a game (FIU +4.8, MTSU -10.4).
Home field is with FIU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it FIU by 9.5 against a market FIU by 10.5: 1.0 points of daylight in MTSU's favour. The model's total is 43.8 against a line of 46.5: 2.7 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model FIU by 9.5 · market FIU by 10.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
FIU
Slight advantage
FIU passing ranks #95, MTSU defends it at #74; the other way MTSU #76 into FIU's #20.
Rushing game
=
Even
FIU rushing ranks #126, MTSU defends it at #109; the other way MTSU #71 into FIU's #48.
Third down & red zone
FIU
Clear advantage
FIU third-down conversion ranks #27, MTSU defends it at #98; the other way MTSU #136 into FIU's #5.
Big plays
=
Even
MTSU rush explosiveness ranks #56, FIU defends it at #61; the other way FIU #136 into MTSU's #86.
Pass protection & rush
FIU
Slight advantage
FIU sack rate ranks #14, MTSU defends it at #122; the other way MTSU #20 into FIU's #79.
Ball security
MTSU
Clear advantage
MTSU turnovers / game ranks #14, FIU defends it at #76; the other way FIU #101 into MTSU's #64.
Form (last 5)
FIU
Clear advantage
FIU +4.8 per game over the last five, MTSU −10.4.
Market
FIU
Clear advantage
Consensus has FIU by 10.5; the model says FIU by 9.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,330 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket FIU by 10.5 · model FIU by 9.5
Mkt FIU 10.5
Model FIU 9.5
← MTSU by 28tieFIU by 28 →
2.6% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.7%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 46.5 · model 43.8
Mkt 46.5
Model 43.8
24 pts6096 pts
6.8% of FBS games finish between 46.5 and 43.8. The league’s median total since 2023 is 52.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
No sharp side yet
Opened
FIU -9.5
→
Market maker now
FIU -10.25
no move
→
Retail now
FIU -10
in line
17 moves8 books0 led
Sun, Oct 18, 7:49 PM first sharp move: FIU -10.5 → FIU -9.5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still FIU -10.5 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the overModel disagrees
Opened
45.5
→
Market maker now
46.8
▲ 0.8 since open
→
Retail now
46.5
in line
37 moves8 books4 led
Mon, Oct 19, 7:00 PM first sharp move: 46 → 45
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 45.5 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
