The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
76%North Carolina Tar HeelsStrong✗
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: North Carolina Tar Heels 83%.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
UNC by 16.7market UNC by 7.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
47.4 pointsmarket 49.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has North Carolina Tar Heels at 76% to win, with the market at UNC by 7.5.
UNC has the advantage in rushing: UNC rushing ranks #98, SYR defends it at #106; the other way SYR #79 into UNC's #62.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours SYR. SYR sack rate ranks #89, UNC defends it at #83; the other way UNC #96 into SYR's #47. The pick still lands on UNC because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with UNC, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it UNC by 16.7 against a market UNC by 7.5: 9.2 points of daylight in UNC's favour. The model's total is 47.4 against a line of 49.5: 2.1 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model UNC by 16.7 · market UNC by 7.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
UNC passing ranks #73, SYR defends it at #28; the other way SYR #93 into UNC's #42.
Rushing game
UNC
Slight advantage
UNC rushing ranks #98, SYR defends it at #106; the other way SYR #79 into UNC's #62.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
UNC points / scoring opportunity ranks #64, SYR defends it at #83; the other way SYR #90 into UNC's #44.
Big plays
=
Even
SYR pass explosiveness ranks #46, UNC defends it at #11; the other way UNC #120 into SYR's #16.
Pass protection & rush
SYR
Slight advantage
SYR sack rate ranks #89, UNC defends it at #83; the other way UNC #96 into SYR's #47.
Ball security
=
Even
SYR turnovers / game ranks #93, UNC defends it at #75; the other way UNC #100 into SYR's #72.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
UNC −2.4 per game over the last five, SYR −4.6.
Market
UNC
Clear advantage
Consensus has UNC by 7.5; the model says UNC by 16.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,330 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket UNC by 7.5 · model UNC by 16.7
Mkt UNC 7.5
Model UNC 16.7
← SYR by 28tieUNC by 28 →
12.1% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 10 and 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.7%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 49.5 · model 47.4
Mkt 49.5
Model 47.4
24 pts6096 pts
5.4% of FBS games finish between 49.5 and 47.4. The league’s median total since 2023 is 52.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: UNCModel agrees
Opened
UNC -9.5
→
Market maker now
UNC -9.25
▲ 0.8 since open
→
Retail now
UNC -9
in line
49 moves8 books5 led
Mon, Oct 19, 10:10 PM first sharp move: UNC -9 → UNC -7.5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still UNC -8.5 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the overModel disagrees
Opened
44.5
→
Market maker now
49.3
▲ 3 since open
→
Retail now
49.5
in line
55 moves8 books7 ledSteam Sat, Oct 24, 11:10 AM
Mon, Oct 19, 1:49 AM first sharp move: 46 → 47
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 46.3 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
