The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
83%Texas State BobcatsStrong✓
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: Texas State Bobcats 77%.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TXST by 12.5market TXST by 14.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
57.2 pointsmarket 58.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Texas State Bobcats at 83% to win, with the market at TXST by 14.5.
TXST has the advantage in rushing: TXST rushing ranks #9, USU defends it at #52; the other way USU #121 into TXST's #39.
TXST has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: TXST third-down conversion ranks #2, USU defends it at #113; the other way USU #102 into TXST's #65.
Rest: USU has 6 more days since its last game (TXST 9d, USU 15d).
Form: TXST has the better last five games by 30.0 points a game (TXST +21.4, USU -8.6).
Home field is with TXST, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it TXST by 12.5 against a market TXST by 14.5: 2.0 points of daylight in USU's favour. The model's total is 57.2 against a line of 58.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TXST by 12.5 · market TXST by 14.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
TXST
Slight advantage
TXST passing ranks #24, USU defends it at #36; the other way USU #130 into TXST's #112.
Rushing game
TXST
Clear advantage
TXST rushing ranks #9, USU defends it at #52; the other way USU #121 into TXST's #39.
Third down & red zone
TXST
Clear advantage
TXST third-down conversion ranks #2, USU defends it at #113; the other way USU #102 into TXST's #65.
Big plays
=
Even
TXST rush explosiveness ranks #48, USU defends it at #93; the other way USU #61 into TXST's #47.
Pass protection & rush
TXST
Clear advantage
TXST sack rate ranks #26, USU defends it at #98; the other way USU #129 into TXST's #133.
Ball security
=
Even
USU turnovers / game ranks #125, TXST defends it at #126; the other way TXST #103 into USU's #103.
Form (last 5)
TXST
Clear advantage
TXST +21.4 per game over the last five, USU −8.6.
Market
TXST
Clear advantage
Consensus has TXST by 14.5; the model says TXST by 12.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,330 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket TXST by 14.5 · model TXST by 12.5
Mkt TXST 14.5
Model TXST 12.5
← USU by 28tieTXST by 28 →
3.6% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.7%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 58.5 · model 57.2
Mkt 58.5
Model 57.2
24 pts6096 pts
2.6% of FBS games finish between 58.5 and 57.2. The league’s median total since 2023 is 52.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: TXSTModel agrees
Opened
TXST -8.5
→
Market maker now
TXST -14.5
▲ 2.5 since open
→
Retail now
TXST -14.5
in line
48 moves8 books9 led
Tue, Oct 20, 4:48 AM first sharp move: TXST -11.5 → TXST -12.5
1 book followed within six hours
Retail was still TXST -12.5 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the underModel agrees
Opened
59.5
→
Market maker now
59.3
▼ 0.8 since open
→
Retail now
59.5
in line
49 moves8 books4 led
Mon, Oct 19, 4:48 PM first sharp move: 59 → 60
5 books followed within six hours
Retail was still 58.5 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
