The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
51%San Diego State AztecsLean✗
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: San Diego State Aztecs 65%.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
SDSU by 6.8market SDSU by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
71.2 pointsmarket 57.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has San Diego State Aztecs at 51% to win, with the market at SDSU by 1.5.
SDSU has the advantage in big plays: SDSU pass explosiveness ranks #8, CSU defends it at #96; the other way CSU #22 into SDSU's #64.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours CSU. CSU turnovers / game ranks #30, SDSU defends it at #65; the other way SDSU #107 into CSU's #7. The pick still lands on SDSU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: CSU has 2 more days since its last game (CSU 9d, SDSU 7d).
Home field is with CSU, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it SDSU by 6.8 against a market SDSU by 1.5: 5.3 points of daylight in SDSU's favour. The model's total is 71.2 against a line of 57.5: 13.7 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model SDSU by 6.8 · market SDSU by 1.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor CSU, but the model still picks SDSU. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
CSU
Clear advantage
CSU passing ranks #27, SDSU defends it at #103; the other way SDSU #123 into CSU's #135.
Rushing game
CSU
Slight advantage
CSU rushing ranks #4, SDSU defends it at #82; the other way SDSU #108 into CSU's #137.
Third down & red zone
CSU
Clear advantage
CSU third-down conversion ranks #22, SDSU defends it at #128; the other way SDSU #118 into CSU's #133.
Big plays
SDSU
Slight advantage
SDSU pass explosiveness ranks #8, CSU defends it at #96; the other way CSU #22 into SDSU's #64.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
SDSU sack rate ranks #48, CSU defends it at #127; the other way CSU #3 into SDSU's #70.
Ball security
CSU
Clear advantage
CSU turnovers / game ranks #30, SDSU defends it at #65; the other way SDSU #107 into CSU's #7.
Form (last 5)
SDSU
Slight advantage
CSU −18.8 per game over the last five, SDSU −15.8.
Market
SDSU
Slight advantage
Consensus has SDSU by 1.5; the model says SDSU by 6.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,330 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket SDSU by 1.5 · model SDSU by 6.8
Mkt SDSU 1.5
Model SDSU 6.8
← SDSU by 28tieCSU by 28 →
9.5% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.7%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 57.5 · model 71.2
Mkt 57.5
Model 71.2
24 pts6096 pts
25.5% of FBS games finish between 57.5 and 71.2. The league’s median total since 2023 is 52.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: CSUModel disagrees
Opened
SDSU -3.5
→
Market maker now
CSU -1
▲ 2.8 since open
→
Retail now
CSU PK
1 behind
36 moves8 books7 ledSteam Mon, Oct 19, 4:48 PM
Mon, Oct 19, 4:48 PM first sharp move: SDSU -2.5 → SDSU -1.5
6 books followed within six hours
Retail was still SDSU -2.5 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the underModel disagrees
Opened
60.5
→
Market maker now
57.5
▼ 5 since open
→
Retail now
57.5
in line
68 moves8 books9 ledSteam Fri, Oct 23, 6:30 PM
Sun, Oct 18, 10:11 PM first sharp move: 61.5 → 60.5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 60.5 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
