The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
58%Hawai'i Rainbow WarriorsLean✓
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors 65%.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
HAW by 6.5market HAW by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
44.0 pointsmarket 48.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at 58% to win, with the market at HAW by 3.
HAW has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: HAW third-down conversion ranks #80, NIU defends it at #137; the other way NIU #133 into HAW's #68.
HAW has the advantage in passing: HAW passing ranks #104, NIU defends it at #134; the other way NIU #125 into HAW's #91.
Form: HAW has the better last five games by 21.0 points a game (NIU -24.0, HAW -3.0).
Home field is with NIU, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it HAW by 6.5 against a market HAW by 3: 3.5 points of daylight in HAW's favour. The model's total is 44.0 against a line of 48.5: 4.5 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model HAW by 6.5 · market HAW by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
HAW
Clear advantage
HAW passing ranks #104, NIU defends it at #134; the other way NIU #125 into HAW's #91.
Rushing game
HAW
Slight advantage
HAW rushing ranks #106, NIU defends it at #133; the other way NIU #114 into HAW's #103.
Third down & red zone
HAW
Clear advantage
HAW third-down conversion ranks #80, NIU defends it at #137; the other way NIU #133 into HAW's #68.
Big plays
NIU
Slight advantage
NIU rush explosiveness ranks #58, HAW defends it at #82; the other way HAW #117 into NIU's #78.
Pass protection & rush
HAW
Clear advantage
HAW sack rate ranks #45, NIU defends it at #105; the other way NIU #128 into HAW's #112.
Ball security
HAW
Clear advantage
HAW turnovers / game ranks #55, NIU defends it at #91; the other way NIU #120 into HAW's #51.
Form (last 5)
HAW
Clear advantage
NIU −24.0 per game over the last five, HAW −3.0.
Market
HAW
Slight advantage
Consensus has HAW by 3; the model says HAW by 6.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,330 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket HAW by 3 · model HAW by 6.5
Mkt HAW 3
Model HAW 6.5
← HAW by 28tieNIU by 28 →
3.7% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 9.7% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.7%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 48.5 · model 44.0
Mkt 48.5
Model 44.0
24 pts6096 pts
9.9% of FBS games finish between 48.5 and 44.0. The league’s median total since 2023 is 52.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: NIUModel disagrees
Opened
HAW -4.5
→
Market maker now
HAW -3
▲ 1.5 since open
→
Retail now
HAW -3
in line
37 moves8 books4 ledSteam Sat, Oct 24, 12:10 PM
Fri, Oct 23, 9:30 PM first sharp move: HAW -4.5 → HAW -3.5
2 books followed within six hours
Retail was still HAW -4 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the overModel disagrees
Opened
47
→
Market maker now
48.8
▲ 1.5 since open
→
Retail now
48.5
in line
28 moves8 books2 led
Mon, Oct 19, 4:48 AM first sharp move: 47 → 46
3 books followed within six hours
Retail was still 46.5 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
