The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
64%Nevada Wolf PackSolid✓
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: San José State Spartans 52%, the other way, so the margin and score here are the model's own read and lean opposite the pick.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
SJSU by 0.7market NEV by 6
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
42.3 pointsmarket 46.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Nevada Wolf Pack at 64% to win, with the market at NEV by 6.
NEV has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: NEV third-down conversion ranks #74, SJSU defends it at #62; the other way SJSU #129 into NEV's #10.
NEV has the advantage in rushing: NEV rushing ranks #66, SJSU defends it at #76; the other way SJSU #114 into NEV's #84.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours SJSU. SJSU turnovers / game ranks #51, NEV defends it at #136; the other way NEV #119 into SJSU's #85. The pick still lands on NEV because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with NEV, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it SJSU by 0.7 against a market NEV by 6: 6.7 points of daylight in SJSU's favour. The model's total is 42.3 against a line of 46.5: 4.2 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model SJSU by 0.7 · market NEV by 6
ⓘMost of these areas favor NEV, but the model still picks SJSU. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
SJSU
Slight advantage
SJSU passing ranks #72, NEV defends it at #56; the other way NEV #116 into SJSU's #52.
Rushing game
NEV
Slight advantage
NEV rushing ranks #66, SJSU defends it at #76; the other way SJSU #114 into NEV's #84.
Third down & red zone
NEV
Clear advantage
NEV third-down conversion ranks #74, SJSU defends it at #62; the other way SJSU #129 into NEV's #10.
Big plays
=
Even
NEV rush explosiveness ranks #52, SJSU defends it at #23; the other way SJSU #105 into NEV's #52.
Pass protection & rush
NEV
Slight advantage
NEV sack rate ranks #30, SJSU defends it at #4; the other way SJSU #98 into NEV's #18.
Ball security
SJSU
Clear advantage
SJSU turnovers / game ranks #51, NEV defends it at #136; the other way NEV #119 into SJSU's #85.
Form (last 5)
NEV
Slight advantage
NEV +1.6 per game over the last five, SJSU −3.4.
Market
NEV
Clear advantage
Consensus has NEV by 6; the model says SJSU by 0.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,332 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket NEV by 6 · model SJSU by 0.7
Mkt NEV 6
Model SJSU 0.7
← SJSU by 28tieNEV by 28 →
11.3% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 6, a number 2.8% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.7%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 46.5 · model 42.3
Mkt 46.5
Model 42.3
24 pts6096 pts
8.2% of FBS games finish between 46.5 and 42.3. The league’s median total since 2023 is 52.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
No sharp side yet
Opened
NEV -5
→
Market maker now
NEV -5.25
▼ 0.3 since open
→
Retail now
NEV -5.5
in line
46 moves8 books3 led
Wed, Oct 21, 7:48 PM first sharp move: NEV -5 → NEV -6
5 books followed within six hours
Retail was still NEV -5.5 at that point
Total
No sharp side yet
Opened
46
→
Market maker now
46.3
▲ 0.3 since open
→
Retail now
46.5
in line
31 moves8 books3 ledSteam Sat, Oct 24, 4:00 PM
Thu, Oct 22, 10:11 PM first sharp move: 46 → 46.5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 46.5 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
