North Texas at Navy: College Football Week 8, Oct 24, 2026

Model pick: North Texas (58%), locked Oct 24; North Texas won 49–39 (graded a hit).

North Texas Mean Green

5-2

Modelpredicted

39 – 32

Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM ET

Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium · 61°

Conference game

Final

Navy Midshipmen

2-5

MarketSpread UNT -3 (opened UNT -2)Total 60.5Moneyline UNT -148 · NAVY +1248 books · best UNT -148 DraftKings · NAVY +126 Caesars

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The pick

locked before kickoff

Win chance

58%North Texas Mean GreenLean✓

Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: North Texas Mean Green 65%.

Model margin

UNT by 6.8market UNT by 3

Model total

70.4 pointsmarket 60.5

Why the model calls it

The model has North Texas Mean Green at 58% to win, with the market at UNT by 3.
UNT has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: UNT third-down conversion ranks #19, NAVY defends it at #121; the other way NAVY #46 into UNT's #37.
UNT has the advantage in passing: UNT passing ranks #2, NAVY defends it at #128; the other way NAVY #71 into UNT's #131.
Rest: UNT has 7 more days since its last game (NAVY 7d, UNT 14d).
Form: UNT has the better last five games by 20.2 points a game (NAVY -3.0, UNT +17.2).
Home field is with NAVY, which the pick has to overcome.

ContextThe model makes it UNT by 6.8 against a market UNT by 3: 3.8 points of daylight in UNT's favour. The model's total is 70.4 against a line of 60.5: 9.9 points above it. The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.

Matchup context: who has the advantage

Model UNT by 6.8 · market UNT by 3

ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.

Passing game

UNT

Clear advantage

UNT passing ranks #2, NAVY defends it at #128; the other way NAVY #71 into UNT's #131.

Rushing game

Even

UNT rushing ranks #21, NAVY defends it at #60; the other way NAVY #15 into UNT's #50.

Third down & red zone

UNT

Clear advantage

UNT third-down conversion ranks #19, NAVY defends it at #121; the other way NAVY #46 into UNT's #37.

Big plays

Even

UNT rush explosiveness ranks #6, NAVY defends it at #90; the other way NAVY #26 into UNT's #34.

Pass protection & rush

UNT

Clear advantage

UNT sack rate ranks #8, NAVY defends it at #20; the other way NAVY #114 into UNT's #64.

Ball security

UNT

Clear advantage

UNT turnovers / game ranks #57, NAVY defends it at #133; the other way NAVY #98 into UNT's #36.

Form (last 5)

UNT

Clear advantage

NAVY −3.0 per game over the last five, UNT +17.2.

Market

UNT

Slight advantage

Consensus has UNT by 3; the model says UNT by 6.8.

the market, for comparison

Where the lines sit

3,330 FBS games since 2023

Marginmarket UNT by 3 · model UNT by 6.8

Mkt UNT 3

Model UNT 6.8

← UNT by 28tieNAVY by 28 →

3.7% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 9.7% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.7%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).

Totalmarket 60.5 · model 70.4

Mkt 60.5

Model 70.4

24 pts6096 pts

17.9% of FBS games finish between 60.5 and 70.4. The league’s median total since 2023 is 52.

Sharp read

tap to open

Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.

Spread

Sharp side: UNTModel agrees

Opened

UNT -2

Market maker now

UNT -3

▼ 0.8 since open

Retail now

UNT -3.25

in line

28 moves8 books7 led

Fri, Oct 23, 1:49 PM first sharp move: UNT -2 → UNT -3
5 books followed within six hours
Retail was still UNT -2.5 at that point

Total

Sharp side: the underModel disagrees

Opened

Market maker now

60.5

▼ 1.5 since open

Retail now

60.5

in line

59 moves8 books16 ledSteam Mon, Oct 19, 4:48 AM

Mon, Oct 19, 1:49 AM first sharp move: 62 → 61.5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 62 at that point

The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

North Texas at Navy: College Football Week 8, Oct 24, 2026

The pickiThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.

Why the model calls itiThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.

Matchup context: who has the advantageiWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.

Where the lines sitiWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.

Sharp read

North Texas at Navy: College Football Week 8, Oct 24, 2026

The pickiThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.

Why the model calls itiThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.

Matchup context: who has the advantageiWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.

Where the lines sitiWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.

Sharp read

The pick

Why the model calls it

Matchup context: who has the advantage

Where the lines sit

The pick

Why the model calls it

Matchup context: who has the advantage

Where the lines sit