The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
60%Buffalo BullsSolid✓
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: Buffalo Bulls 76%.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BUFF by 12.1market BUFF by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
43.7 pointsmarket 44.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Buffalo Bulls at 60% to win, with the market at BUFF by 3.
BUFF has the advantage in rushing: BUFF rushing ranks #90, BGSU defends it at #121; the other way BGSU #132 into BUFF's #54.
BUFF has the advantage in big plays: BUFF rush explosiveness ranks #55, BGSU defends it at #120; the other way BGSU #134 into BUFF's #21.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours BGSU. BGSU sack rate ranks #61, BUFF defends it at #123; the other way BUFF #56 into BGSU's #13. The pick still lands on BUFF because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with BUFF, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it BUFF by 12.1 against a market BUFF by 3: 9.1 points of daylight in BUFF's favour. The model's total is 43.7 against a line of 44.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BUFF by 12.1 · market BUFF by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
BGSU
Slight advantage
BGSU passing ranks #67, BUFF defends it at #88; the other way BUFF #118 into BGSU's #85.
Rushing game
BUFF
Clear advantage
BUFF rushing ranks #90, BGSU defends it at #121; the other way BGSU #132 into BUFF's #54.
Third down & red zone
BUFF
Slight advantage
BUFF points / scoring opportunity ranks #93, BGSU defends it at #98; the other way BGSU #126 into BUFF's #65.
Big plays
BUFF
Slight advantage
BUFF rush explosiveness ranks #55, BGSU defends it at #120; the other way BGSU #134 into BUFF's #21.
Pass protection & rush
BGSU
Clear advantage
BGSU sack rate ranks #61, BUFF defends it at #123; the other way BUFF #56 into BGSU's #13.
Ball security
=
Even
BGSU turnovers / game ranks #68, BUFF defends it at #81; the other way BUFF #105 into BGSU's #94.
Form (last 5)
BUFF
Slight advantage
BUFF +5.8 per game over the last five, BGSU +3.2.
Market
BUFF
Slight advantage
Consensus has BUFF by 3; the model says BUFF by 12.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,332 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket BUFF by 3 · model BUFF by 12.1
Mkt BUFF 3
Model BUFF 12.1
← BGSU by 28tieBUFF by 28 →
15.7% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 9.7% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.7%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 44.5 · model 43.7
Mkt 44.5
Model 43.7
24 pts6096 pts
2.4% of FBS games finish between 44.5 and 43.7. The league’s median total since 2023 is 52.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: BGSUModel disagrees
Opened
BUFF -4.5
→
Market maker now
BUFF -3
▼ 0.8 since open
→
Retail now
BUFF -3
in line
18 moves8 books2 led
Mon, Oct 19, 1:49 PM first sharp move: BUFF -4.5 → BUFF -3.5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still BUFF -4.5 at that point
Total
No sharp side yet
Opened
44.5
→
Market maker now
44.8
▲ 0.3 since open
→
Retail now
44.5
in line
19 moves8 books8 led
Sat, Oct 24, 9:30 AM first sharp move: 44.5 → 44
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 44.5 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
