Baylor at Kansas: College Football Week 8, Oct 24, 2026

Model pick: Kansas (50%), locked Oct 24; Kansas won 25–24 (graded a hit).

Baylor Bears

4-3

Modelpredicted

28 – 25

Sat, Oct 24, 1:00 PM ET

David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium · 72°

Conference game

Final

Kansas Jayhawks

3-4

MarketSpread KU -1.5 (opened BAY -2.5)Total 54.5Moneyline BAY -102 · KU -1188 books · best BAY -102 DraftKings · KU -114 FanDuel

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The pick

locked before kickoff

Win chance

50%Kansas JayhawksLean✓

Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: Baylor Bears 57%, the other way, so the margin and score here are the model's own read and lean opposite the pick.

Model margin

BAY by 2.8market KU by 1.5

Model total

52.6 pointsmarket 54.5

Why the model calls it

The model has Kansas Jayhawks at 50% to win, with the market at KU by 1.5.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours BAY. BAY sack rate ranks #54, KU defends it at #87; the other way KU #61 into BAY's #6. The pick still lands on KU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with KU, which supports the pick.

ContextThe model makes it BAY by 2.8 against a market KU by 1.5: 4.3 points of daylight in BAY's favour. The model's total is 52.6 against a line of 54.5: 1.9 points below it. The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.

Matchup context: who has the advantage

Model BAY by 2.8 · market KU by 1.5

ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.

Passing game

BAY

Clear advantage

BAY passing ranks #85, KU defends it at #62; the other way KU #113 into BAY's #18.

Rushing game

Even

KU rushing ranks #36, BAY defends it at #10; the other way BAY #110 into KU's #65.

Third down & red zone

Even

BAY points / scoring opportunity ranks #106, KU defends it at #42; the other way KU #92 into BAY's #6.

Big plays

BAY

Slight advantage

BAY pass explosiveness ranks #9, KU defends it at #67; the other way KU #13 into BAY's #19.

Pass protection & rush

BAY

Clear advantage

BAY sack rate ranks #54, KU defends it at #87; the other way KU #61 into BAY's #6.

Ball security

BAY

Clear advantage

BAY turnovers / game ranks #112, KU defends it at #90; the other way KU #110 into BAY's #15.

Form (last 5)

BAY

Slight advantage

KU +4.2 per game over the last five, BAY +10.2.

Market

Slight advantage

Consensus has KU by 1.5; the model says BAY by 2.8.

the market, for comparison

Where the lines sit

3,330 FBS games since 2023

Marginmarket KU by 1.5 · model BAY by 2.8

Mkt KU 1.5

Model BAY 2.8

← BAY by 28tieKU by 28 →

4.3% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.7%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).

Totalmarket 54.5 · model 52.6

Mkt 54.5

Model 52.6

24 pts6096 pts

3.4% of FBS games finish between 54.5 and 52.6. The league’s median total since 2023 is 52.

Sharp read

tap to open

Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.

Spread

Sharp side: KUModel disagrees

Opened

BAY -2.5

Market maker now

KU -0.75

▲ 3 since open

Retail now

KU -1.5

0.8 behind

34 moves8 books9 ledSteam Sat, Oct 24, 11:10 AM

Mon, Oct 19, 1:49 PM first sharp move: BAY -1.5 → BAY -3
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still BAY -1.5 at that point

Total

No sharp side yet

Opened

54.5

Market maker now

54.3

▲ 0.3 since open

Retail now

54.5

in line

40 moves8 books6 led

Mon, Oct 19, 1:49 PM first sharp move: 54.5 → 54
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 54.5 at that point

The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

Baylor at Kansas: College Football Week 8, Oct 24, 2026

The pickiThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.

Why the model calls itiThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.

Matchup context: who has the advantageiWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.

Where the lines sitiWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.

Sharp read

Baylor at Kansas: College Football Week 8, Oct 24, 2026

The pickiThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.

Why the model calls itiThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.

Matchup context: who has the advantageiWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.

Where the lines sitiWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.

Sharp read

The pick

Why the model calls it

Matchup context: who has the advantage

Where the lines sit

The pick

Why the model calls it

Matchup context: who has the advantage

Where the lines sit