Missouri State at Delaware: College Football Week 8, Oct 20, 2026

Model pick: Delaware (59%), locked Oct 20; Delaware won 61–38 (graded a hit).

Missouri State Bears

2-5

Modelpredicted

26 – 29

Tue, Oct 20, 7:00 PM ET

Delaware Stadium · 59° · 10 mph wind

Conference game

Final

Delaware Blue Hens

3-4

MarketSpread DEL -3 (opened DEL -2.5)Total 54.5Moneyline MOST +140 · DEL -1668 books · best MOST +150 Hard Rock · DEL -145 BetMGM

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The pick

locked before kickoff

Win chance

59%Delaware Blue HensLean✓

Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: Delaware Blue Hens 57%.

Model margin

DEL by 3.0market DEL by 3

Model total

54.4 pointsmarket 54.5

Why the model calls it

The model has Delaware Blue Hens at 59% to win, with the market at DEL by 3.
DEL has the advantage in rushing: DEL rushing ranks #84, MOST defends it at #105; the other way MOST #117 into DEL's #70.
DEL has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: DEL points / scoring opportunity ranks #52, MOST defends it at #120; the other way MOST #63 into DEL's #49.
Home field is with DEL, which supports the pick.

ContextThe model makes it DEL by 3.0 against a market DEL by 3: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 54.4 against a line of 54.5: in line with the market. The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.

Matchup context: who has the advantage

Model DEL by 3.0 · market DEL by 3

ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.

Passing game

DEL

Slight advantage

DEL passing ranks #39, MOST defends it at #127; the other way MOST #63 into DEL's #114.

Rushing game

DEL

Clear advantage

DEL rushing ranks #84, MOST defends it at #105; the other way MOST #117 into DEL's #70.

Third down & red zone

DEL

Slight advantage

DEL points / scoring opportunity ranks #52, MOST defends it at #120; the other way MOST #63 into DEL's #49.

Big plays

Even

MOST pass explosiveness ranks #29, DEL defends it at #63; the other way DEL #25 into MOST's #37.

Pass protection & rush

Even

MOST sack rate ranks #55, DEL defends it at #54; the other way DEL #118 into MOST's #115.

Ball security

DEL

Clear advantage

DEL turnovers / game ranks #77, MOST defends it at #100; the other way MOST #97 into DEL's #30.

Form (last 5)

DEL

Slight advantage

DEL −5.4 per game over the last five, MOST −11.4.

Market

DEL

Slight advantage

Consensus has DEL by 3; the model says DEL by 3.0.

the market, for comparison

Where the lines sit

3,330 FBS games since 2023

Marginmarket DEL by 3 · model DEL by 3.0

Mkt DEL 3

Model DEL 3.0

← MOST by 28tieDEL by 28 →

The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. The market is on 3, a number 9.7% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.7%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).

Totalmarket 54.5 · model 54.4

Mkt 54.5

Model 54.4

24 pts6096 pts

Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2023 is 52.

Sharp read

tap to open

Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.

Spread

Sharp side: DELModel disagrees

Opened

DEL -2.5

Market maker now

DEL -3.5

▲ 0.5 since open

Retail now

DEL -3.5

in line

23 moves8 books4 led

Tue, Oct 20, 9:00 AM first sharp move: DEL -3 → DEL -2.5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still DEL -3 at that point

Total

Sharp side: the overModel agrees

Opened

51.5

Market maker now

54.3

▲ 2.3 since open

Retail now

53.5

0.8 behind

30 moves8 books4 ledSteam Tue, Oct 20, 2:10 PM

Mon, Oct 19, 1:49 PM first sharp move: 52 → 53
6 books followed within six hours
Retail was still 51.8 at that point

The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

Missouri State at Delaware: College Football Week 8, Oct 20, 2026

The pickiThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.

Why the model calls itiThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.

Matchup context: who has the advantageiWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.

Where the lines sitiWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.

Sharp read

Missouri State at Delaware: College Football Week 8, Oct 20, 2026

The pickiThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.

Why the model calls itiThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.

Matchup context: who has the advantageiWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.

Where the lines sitiWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.

Sharp read

The pick

Why the model calls it

Matchup context: who has the advantage

Where the lines sit

The pick

Why the model calls it

Matchup context: who has the advantage

Where the lines sit