The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
82%Ball State CardinalsStrong✓
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: Ball State Cardinals 72%.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BALL by 10.0market BALL by 14.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
56.8 pointsmarket 51.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Ball State Cardinals at 82% to win, with the market at BALL by 14.5.
BALL has the advantage in passing: BALL passing ranks #54, SAC defends it at #123; the other way SAC #128 into BALL's #125.
BALL has the advantage in big plays: BALL pass explosiveness ranks #49, SAC defends it at #109; the other way SAC #134 into BALL's #112.
Form: BALL has the better last five games by 19.0 points a game (BALL -8.2, SAC -27.2).
Home field is with BALL, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it BALL by 10.0 against a market BALL by 14.5: 4.5 points of daylight in SAC's favour. The model's total is 56.8 against a line of 51.5: 5.3 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BALL by 10.0 · market BALL by 14.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
BALL
Clear advantage
BALL passing ranks #54, SAC defends it at #123; the other way SAC #128 into BALL's #125.
Rushing game
BALL
Slight advantage
BALL rushing ranks #99, SAC defends it at #94; the other way SAC #137 into BALL's #101.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
BALL points / scoring opportunity ranks #77, SAC defends it at #119; the other way SAC #130 into BALL's #134.
Big plays
BALL
Clear advantage
BALL pass explosiveness ranks #49, SAC defends it at #109; the other way SAC #134 into BALL's #112.
Pass protection & rush
BALL
Slight advantage
BALL sack rate ranks #50, SAC defends it at #119; the other way SAC #76 into BALL's #95.
Ball security
BALL
Clear advantage
BALL turnovers / game ranks #54, SAC defends it at #129; the other way SAC #126 into BALL's #121.
Form (last 5)
BALL
Clear advantage
BALL −8.2 per game over the last five, SAC −27.2.
Market
BALL
Clear advantage
Consensus has BALL by 14.5; the model says BALL by 10.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,332 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket BALL by 14.5 · model BALL by 10.0
Mkt BALL 14.5
Model BALL 10.0
← SAC by 28tieBALL by 28 →
8.1% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 10 and 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.7%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 51.5 · model 56.8
Mkt 51.5
Model 56.8
24 pts6096 pts
10.9% of FBS games finish between 51.5 and 56.8. The league’s median total since 2023 is 52.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: BALLModel agrees
Opened
BALL -11
→
Market maker now
BALL -14.5
▲ 1.5 since open
→
Retail now
BALL -14.5
in line
34 moves8 books5 led
Mon, Oct 19, 10:11 AM first sharp move: BALL -11 → BALL -13.5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still BALL -11 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the underModel disagrees
Opened
51
→
Market maker now
51
no move
→
Retail now
51.5
0.5 behind
16 moves8 books1 led
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
