The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
85%Northwestern WildcatsStrong✓
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: Northwestern Wildcats 86%.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
NU by 18.9market NU by 15.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
58.2 pointsmarket 58.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Northwestern Wildcats at 85% to win, with the market at NU by 15.5.
NU has the advantage in passing: NU passing ranks #9, RUTG defends it at #121; the other way RUTG #60 into NU's #23.
NU has the advantage in rushing: NU rushing ranks #11, RUTG defends it at #134; the other way RUTG #90 into NU's #72.
Form: NU has the better last five games by 17.2 points a game (NU +15.4, RUTG -1.8).
Home field is with NU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it NU by 18.9 against a market NU by 15.5: 3.4 points of daylight in NU's favour. The model's total is 58.2 against a line of 58.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model NU by 18.9 · market NU by 15.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
NU
Clear advantage
NU passing ranks #9, RUTG defends it at #121; the other way RUTG #60 into NU's #23.
Rushing game
NU
Clear advantage
NU rushing ranks #11, RUTG defends it at #134; the other way RUTG #90 into NU's #72.
Third down & red zone
NU
Clear advantage
NU points / scoring opportunity ranks #14, RUTG defends it at #124; the other way RUTG #70 into NU's #11.
Big plays
NU
Slight advantage
NU rush explosiveness ranks #16, RUTG defends it at #124; the other way RUTG #99 into NU's #59.
Pass protection & rush
RUTG
Slight advantage
RUTG sack rate ranks #101, NU defends it at #110; the other way NU #117 into RUTG's #99.
Ball security
NU
Clear advantage
NU turnovers / game ranks #3, RUTG defends it at #97; the other way RUTG #132 into NU's #20.
Form (last 5)
NU
Clear advantage
NU +15.4 per game over the last five, RUTG −1.8.
Market
NU
Clear advantage
Consensus has NU by 15.5; the model says NU by 18.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,330 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket NU by 15.5 · model NU by 18.9
Mkt NU 15.5
Model NU 18.9
← RUTG by 28tieNU by 28 →
4.5% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.7%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 58.5 · model 58.2
Mkt 58.5
Model 58.2
24 pts6096 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2023 is 52.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: RUTGModel disagrees
Opened
NU -16.5
→
Market maker now
NU -15
▼ 1.3 since open
→
Retail now
NU -15.5
0.5 behind
22 moves5 books2 led
Sat, Oct 24, 6:00 AM first sharp move: NU -16.5 → NU -14.5
3 books followed within six hours
Retail was still NU -15.5 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the overModel disagrees
Opened
58.5
→
Market maker now
59
▲ 0.5 since open
→
Retail now
59
in line
19 moves5 books1 led
Mon, Oct 19, 1:49 PM first sharp move: 59 → 58
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 58.5 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
