The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
65%Chicago BearsSolid✓
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: Chicago Bears 74%.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
CHI by 8.7market CHI by 3.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
44.0 pointsmarket 43.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Chicago Bears at 65% to win, with the market at CHI by 3.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Case Keenum starting for Chicago Bears, and the model prices that in.
CHI has the advantage in passing: CHI passing ranks #8, NYJ defends it at #20; the other way NYJ #12 into CHI's #3.
CHI has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: CHI third-down conversion ranks #6, NYJ defends it at #15; the other way NYJ #27 into CHI's #2.
Form: CHI has the better last five games by 13.8 points a game (CHI +11.8, NYJ -2.0).
Home field is with CHI, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it CHI by 8.7 against a market CHI by 3.5: 5.2 points of daylight in CHI's favour. The model's total is 44.0 against a line of 43.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model CHI by 8.7 · market CHI by 3.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
CHI
Clear advantage
CHI passing ranks #8, NYJ defends it at #20; the other way NYJ #12 into CHI's #3.
Rushing game
=
Even
CHI rushing ranks #7, NYJ defends it at #12; the other way NYJ #25 into CHI's #26.
Third down & red zone
CHI
Slight advantage
CHI third-down conversion ranks #6, NYJ defends it at #15; the other way NYJ #27 into CHI's #2.
Big plays
=
Even
CHI explosive rush rate ranks #10, NYJ defends it at #27; the other way NYJ #19 into CHI's #23.
Pass protection & rush
CHI
Clear advantage
CHI sack rate ranks #11, NYJ defends it at #15; the other way NYJ #30 into CHI's #4.
Ball security
=
Even
NYJ turnovers / game ranks #2, CHI defends it at #13; the other way CHI #18 into NYJ's #26.
Form (last 5)
CHI
Clear advantage
CHI +11.8 per game over the last five, NYJ −2.0.
Market
CHI
Clear advantage
Consensus has CHI by 3.5; the model says CHI by 8.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket CHI by 3.5 · model CHI by 8.7
Mkt CHI 3.5
Model CHI 8.7
← NYJ by 28tieCHI by 28 →
15.0% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 6. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 43.5 · model 44.0
Mkt 43.5
Model 44.0
20 pts4672 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: CHIModel agrees
Opened
CHI -3
→
Market maker now
CHI -3.5
▲ 0.5 since open
→
Retail now
CHI -3.5
in line
19 moves9 books6 led
Fri, Oct 2, 1:48 PM first sharp move: CHI -3 → CHI -3.5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still CHI -3.5 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the overModel agrees
Opened
43
→
Market maker now
43.8
▲ 0.8 since open
→
Retail now
43.5
in line
26 moves9 books0 led
Sun, Oct 4, 12:18 PM first sharp move: 43 → 43.5
1 book followed within six hours
Retail was still 43.5 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
