The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
60%Houston TexansLean✗
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: Houston Texans 64%.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
HOU by 5.0market HOU by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
49.6 pointsmarket 48.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Houston Texans at 60% to win, with the market at HOU by 3.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with C.J. Stroud starting for Houston Texans, and the model prices that in.
HOU has the advantage in big plays: HOU explosive pass rate ranks #4, DAL defends it at #32; the other way DAL #31 into HOU's #29.
Counterpoint: rushing favours DAL. DAL rushing ranks #10, HOU defends it at #11; the other way HOU #30 into DAL's #16. The pick still lands on HOU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: DAL has the better last five games by 8.8 points a game (HOU -6.3, DAL +2.5).
Home field is with HOU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it HOU by 5.0 against a market HOU by 3: 2.0 points of daylight in HOU's favour. The model's total is 49.6 against a line of 48.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model HOU by 5.0 · market HOU by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
DAL passing ranks #5, HOU defends it at #25; the other way HOU #15 into DAL's #32.
Rushing game
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL rushing ranks #10, HOU defends it at #11; the other way HOU #30 into DAL's #16.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
DAL red-zone touchdown rate ranks #3, HOU defends it at #17; the other way HOU #17 into DAL's #27.
Big plays
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU explosive pass rate ranks #4, DAL defends it at #32; the other way DAL #31 into HOU's #29.
Pass protection & rush
HOU
Slight advantage
HOU sack rate ranks #22, DAL defends it at #29; the other way DAL #6 into HOU's #2.
Ball security
=
Even
HOU turnovers / game ranks #6, DAL defends it at #27; the other way DAL #5 into HOU's #23.
Form (last 5)
DAL
Clear advantage
HOU −6.3 per game over the last five, DAL +2.5.
Market
HOU
Slight advantage
Consensus has HOU by 3; the model says HOU by 5.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket HOU by 3 · model HOU by 5.0
Mkt HOU 3
Model HOU 5.0
← DAL by 28tieHOU by 28 →
2.3% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 48.5 · model 49.6
Mkt 48.5
Model 49.6
20 pts4672 pts
2.3% of NFL games finish between 48.5 and 49.6. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: HOUModel agrees
Opened
HOU -2.5
→
Market maker now
HOU -3
▲ 1.3 since open
→
Retail now
HOU -3
in line
16 moves9 books2 led
Mon, Sep 28, 10:10 AM first sharp move: HOU -1.5 → HOU -2.5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still HOU -2.5 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the overModel agrees
Opened
47.5
→
Market maker now
49
▲ 1.3 since open
→
Retail now
48.5
0.5 behind
22 moves9 books1 led
Wed, Sep 30, 1:48 PM first sharp move: 47.5 → 48
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 48 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
