The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
53%Arizona CardinalsLean✗
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: New York Giants 59%, the other way, so the margin and score here are the model's own read and lean opposite the pick.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
NYG by 3.0market ARI by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
43.8 pointsmarket 44
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Arizona Cardinals at 53% to win, with the market at ARI by 2.5.
ARI has the advantage in rushing: ARI rushing ranks #12, NYG defends it at #25; the other way NYG #22 into ARI's #2.
Counterpoint: passing favours NYG. NYG passing ranks #18, ARI defends it at #31; the other way ARI #22 into NYG's #12. The pick still lands on ARI because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: NYG has the better last five games by 8.3 points a game (NYG +0.8, ARI -7.5).
Home field is with NYG, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it NYG by 3.0 against a market ARI by 2.5: 5.5 points of daylight in NYG's favour. The model's total is 43.8 against a line of 44: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model NYG by 3.0 · market ARI by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
NYG
Clear advantage
NYG passing ranks #18, ARI defends it at #31; the other way ARI #22 into NYG's #12.
Rushing game
ARI
Clear advantage
ARI rushing ranks #12, NYG defends it at #25; the other way NYG #22 into ARI's #2.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
ARI red-zone touchdown rate ranks #16, NYG defends it at #28; the other way NYG #19 into ARI's #25.
Big plays
NYG
Slight advantage
NYG explosive pass rate ranks #30, ARI defends it at #31; the other way ARI #32 into NYG's #5.
Pass protection & rush
ARI
Clear advantage
ARI sack rate ranks #8, NYG defends it at #32; the other way NYG #29 into ARI's #12.
Ball security
=
Even
ARI turnovers / game ranks #13, NYG defends it at #5; the other way NYG #20 into ARI's #8.
Form (last 5)
NYG
Clear advantage
NYG +0.8 per game over the last five, ARI −7.5.
Market
ARI
Slight advantage
Consensus has ARI by 2.5; the model says NYG by 3.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket ARI by 2.5 · model NYG by 3.0
Mkt ARI 2.5
Model NYG 3.0
← ARI by 28tieNYG by 28 →
17.1% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 44 · model 43.8
Mkt 44
Model 43.8
20 pts4672 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: ARIModel disagrees
Opened
NYG -1.5
→
Market maker now
ARI -2.5
▼ 2.8 since open
→
Retail now
ARI -2.5
in line
32 moves9 books7 led
Tue, Sep 29, 10:10 AM first sharp move: NYG -1.5 → ARI -1
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still ARI -1 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the overModel disagrees
Opened
43.5
→
Market maker now
44
▲ 0.5 since open
→
Retail now
44
in line
32 moves9 books4 led
Mon, Sep 28, 1:20 AM first sharp move: 42.5 → 43.5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 43.5 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
