Chargers vs Seahawks Prediction — NFL Week 4, Oct 4, 2026

Model pick: Seahawks (77%), locked Oct 4; Seahawks won 30–23 (graded a hit).

Los Angeles Chargers

0-4

Modelpredicted

11 – 25

Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET

Lumen Field · 62° · Sunny

Final

Seattle Seahawks

3-1

MarketSpread SEA -7 (opened SEA -3)Total 42.5Moneyline LAC +275 · SEA -3307 books · best LAC +295 FanDuel · SEA -335 Caesars

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The pick

locked before kickoff

Win chance

77%Seattle SeahawksStrong✓

Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: Seattle Seahawks 86%.

Model margin

SEA by 14.5market SEA by 7

Model total

36.3 pointsmarket 42.5

Why the model calls it

The model has Seattle Seahawks at 77% to win, with the market at SEA by 7.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Justin Herbert starting for Los Angeles Chargers, and the model prices that in.
SEA has the advantage in passing: SEA passing ranks #10, LAC defends it at #19; the other way LAC #29 into SEA's #4.
SEA has the advantage in big plays: SEA explosive pass rate ranks #5, LAC defends it at #24; the other way LAC #15 into SEA's #3.
Form: SEA has the better last five games by 17.8 points a game (SEA +8.0, LAC -9.8).
Home field is with SEA, which supports the pick.

ContextThe model makes it SEA by 14.5 against a market SEA by 7: 7.5 points of daylight in SEA's favour. The model's total is 36.3 against a line of 42.5: 6.2 points below it. The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.

Matchup context: who has the advantage

Model SEA by 14.5 · market SEA by 7

ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.

Passing game

SEA

Clear advantage

SEA passing ranks #10, LAC defends it at #19; the other way LAC #29 into SEA's #4.

Rushing game

SEA

Slight advantage

SEA rushing ranks #28, LAC defends it at #15; the other way LAC #26 into SEA's #3.

Third down & red zone

Even

LAC red-zone touchdown rate ranks #15, SEA defends it at #22; the other way SEA #14 into LAC's #14.

Big plays

SEA

Clear advantage

SEA explosive pass rate ranks #5, LAC defends it at #24; the other way LAC #15 into SEA's #3.

Pass protection & rush

SEA

Slight advantage

SEA sack rate ranks #12, LAC defends it at #7; the other way LAC #26 into SEA's #10.

Ball security

Even

SEA turnovers / game ranks #22, LAC defends it at #3; the other way LAC #30 into SEA's #7.

Form (last 5)

SEA

Clear advantage

SEA +8.0 per game over the last five, LAC −9.8.

Market

SEA

Clear advantage

Consensus has SEA by 7; the model says SEA by 14.5.

the market, for comparison

Where the lines sit

3,893 NFL games since 2012

Marginmarket SEA by 7 · model SEA by 14.5

Mkt SEA 7

Model SEA 14.5

← LAC by 28tieSEA by 28 →

12.6% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 7, a number 8.6% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 14. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).

Totalmarket 42.5 · model 36.3

Mkt 42.5

Model 36.3

20 pts4672 pts

16.3% of NFL games finish between 42.5 and 36.3. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.

Sharp read

tap to open

Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.

Spread

Sharp side: SEAModel agrees

Opened

SEA -6.5

Market maker now

SEA -7.25

▲ 0.8 since open

Retail now

SEA -7

in line

11 moves9 books0 led

Mon, Sep 28, 10:06 PM first sharp move: SEA -6.5 → SEA -7
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still SEA -6.5 at that point

Total

Sharp side: the underModel agrees

Opened

Market maker now

42.8

▼ 1.3 since open

Retail now

42.5

in line

16 moves9 books0 led

Mon, Sep 28, 1:20 AM first sharp move: 44 → 43
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 44 at that point

The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

Chargers vs Seahawks Prediction — NFL Week 4, Oct 4, 2026

The pickiThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.

Why the model calls itiThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.

Matchup context: who has the advantageiWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.

Where the lines sitiWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.

Sharp read

Chargers vs Seahawks Prediction — NFL Week 4, Oct 4, 2026

The pickiThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.

Why the model calls itiThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.

Matchup context: who has the advantageiWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.

Where the lines sitiWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.

Sharp read

The pick

Why the model calls it

Matchup context: who has the advantage

Where the lines sit

The pick

Why the model calls it

Matchup context: who has the advantage

Where the lines sit