Dolphins vs Vikings Prediction — NFL Week 4, Oct 4, 2026

Model pick: Vikings (81%), locked Oct 4; Vikings won 15–10 (graded a hit).

Miami Dolphins

0-4

Modelpredicted

10 – 24

Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET

U.S. Bank Stadium · Indoors

Final

Minnesota Vikings

4-0

MarketSpread MIN -10 (opened MIN -7.5)Total 38.5Moneyline MIA +400 · MIN -6009 books · best MIA +425 Hard Rock · MIN -510 FanDuel

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The pick

locked before kickoff

Win chance

81%Minnesota VikingsStrong✓

Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: Minnesota Vikings 84%.

Model margin

MIN by 13.2market MIN by 10

Model total

34.0 pointsmarket 38.5

Why the model calls it

The model has Minnesota Vikings at 81% to win, with the market at MIN by 10.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Malik Willis starting for Miami Dolphins, and the model prices that in.
MIN has the advantage in passing: MIN passing ranks #24, MIA defends it at #30; the other way MIA #27 into MIN's #1.
MIN has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: MIN red-zone touchdown rate ranks #25, MIA defends it at #20; the other way MIA #32 into MIN's #1.
Form: MIN has the better last five games by 22.5 points a game (MIN +8.8, MIA -13.8).
Home field is with MIN, which supports the pick.

ContextThe model makes it MIN by 13.2 against a market MIN by 10: 3.2 points of daylight in MIN's favour. The model's total is 34.0 against a line of 38.5: 4.5 points below it. The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.

Matchup context: who has the advantage

Model MIN by 13.2 · market MIN by 10

ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.

Passing game

MIN

Clear advantage

MIN passing ranks #24, MIA defends it at #30; the other way MIA #27 into MIN's #1.

Rushing game

MIN

Slight advantage

MIN rushing ranks #21, MIA defends it at #6; the other way MIA #27 into MIN's #5.

Third down & red zone

MIN

Clear advantage

MIN red-zone touchdown rate ranks #25, MIA defends it at #20; the other way MIA #32 into MIN's #1.

Big plays

Even

MIA explosive rush rate ranks #18, MIN defends it at #25; the other way MIN #23 into MIA's #15.

Pass protection & rush

MIN

Clear advantage

MIN sack rate ranks #31, MIA defends it at #28; the other way MIA #27 into MIN's #1.

Ball security

MIN

Clear advantage

MIN turnovers / game ranks #9, MIA defends it at #25; the other way MIA #19 into MIN's #4.

Form (last 5)

MIN

Clear advantage

MIN +8.8 per game over the last five, MIA −13.8.

Market

MIN

Clear advantage

Consensus has MIN by 10; the model says MIN by 13.2.

the market, for comparison

Where the lines sit

3,893 NFL games since 2012

Marginmarket MIN by 10 · model MIN by 13.2

Mkt MIN 10

Model MIN 13.2

← MIA by 28tieMIN by 28 →

3.6% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 10, a number 5.0% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).

Totalmarket 38.5 · model 34.0

Mkt 38.5

Model 34.0

20 pts4672 pts

9.6% of NFL games finish between 38.5 and 34.0. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.

Sharp read

tap to open

Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.

Spread

Sharp side: MIAModel disagrees

Opened

MIN -10

Market maker now

MIN -10

▼ 0.5 since open

Retail now

MIN -10

in line

46 moves9 books3 led

Mon, Sep 28, 10:06 PM first sharp move: MIN -10 → MIN -11
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still MIN -10 at that point

Total

Sharp side: the underModel agrees

Opened

41.5

Market maker now

38.3

▼ 0.8 since open

Retail now

38.5

in line

21 moves9 books2 led

Mon, Sep 28, 10:06 PM first sharp move: 39.5 → 38.5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 39.5 at that point

The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

Dolphins vs Vikings Prediction — NFL Week 4, Oct 4, 2026

The pickiThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.

Why the model calls itiThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.

Matchup context: who has the advantageiWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.

Where the lines sitiWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.

Sharp read

Dolphins vs Vikings Prediction — NFL Week 4, Oct 4, 2026

The pickiThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.

Why the model calls itiThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.

Matchup context: who has the advantageiWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.

Where the lines sitiWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.

Sharp read

The pick

Why the model calls it

Matchup context: who has the advantage

Where the lines sit

The pick

Why the model calls it

Matchup context: who has the advantage

Where the lines sit