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Model pick: Colts (63%), locked Oct 4; Colts won 30–13 (graded a hit).
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: Washington Commanders 51%, the other way, so the margin and score here are the model's own read and lean opposite the pick.
14.1% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 5, a number 4.0% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
26.1% of NFL games finish between 46.5 and 57.5. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
