QuarterbacksGame-day lineup once inactives are posted; before that, the team's depth chart and the injury report.TBJalon Daniels · Projected: Baker Mayfield outDALDak Prescott · Starter per team depth chart
The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
77%Dallas CowboysStrong
Built on the market's no-vig price. Provisional until the final lock shortly before kickoff. Model alone: Dallas Cowboys 71%.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
DAL by 7.4market DAL by 8
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
55.1 pointsmarket 47.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Dallas Cowboys at 77% to win, with the market at DAL by 8.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Jalon Daniels starting for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the model prices that in.
DAL has the advantage in passing: DAL passing ranks #5, TB defends it at #13; the other way TB #32 into DAL's #32.
Counterpoint: big plays favours TB. TB explosive pass rate ranks #28, DAL defends it at #32; the other way DAL #31 into TB's #8. The pick still lands on DAL because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: DAL has the better last five games by 7.5 points a game (DAL +2.5, TB -5.0).
Home field is with DAL, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it DAL by 7.4 against a market DAL by 8: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 55.1 against a line of 47.5: 7.6 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model DAL by 7.4 · market DAL by 8
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
DAL
Slight advantage
DAL passing ranks #5, TB defends it at #13; the other way TB #32 into DAL's #32.
Rushing game
TB
Slight advantage
TB rushing ranks #13, DAL defends it at #16; the other way DAL #10 into TB's #4.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
DAL red-zone touchdown rate ranks #3, TB defends it at #6; the other way TB #31 into DAL's #27.
Big plays
TB
Clear advantage
TB explosive pass rate ranks #28, DAL defends it at #32; the other way DAL #31 into TB's #8.
Pass protection & rush
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL sack rate ranks #6, TB defends it at #25; the other way TB #32 into DAL's #29.
Ball security
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL turnovers / game ranks #5, TB defends it at #21; the other way TB #31 into DAL's #27.
Form (last 5)
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL +2.5 per game over the last five, TB −5.0.
Market
DAL
Clear advantage
Consensus has DAL by 8; the model says DAL by 7.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket DAL by 8 · model DAL by 7.4
Mkt DAL 8
Model DAL 7.4
← TB by 28tieDAL by 28 →
No whole-number margin falls between 8 and 7.4, so the two numbers differ only on a push at 8. The market is on 8, a number 4.2% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 47.5 · model 55.1
Mkt 47.5
Model 55.1
20 pts4672 pts
19.4% of NFL games finish between 47.5 and 55.1. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: TBModel agrees
Opened
DAL -9.5
→
Market maker now
DAL -8
▼ 1.8 since open
→
Retail now
DAL -8.5
0.5 behind
22 moves9 books4 led
Mon, Oct 5, 10:10 AM first sharp move: DAL -9.5 → DAL -10
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still DAL -10 at that point
Total
No sharp side yet
Opened
47
→
Market maker now
47.5
no move
→
Retail now
47.5
in line
6 moves9 books1 led
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
