Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Philadelphia Eagles
2-0
Model predicts
22 – 21
Mon, Sep 28, 8:15 PM ET
Soldier Field · 66° · Clear
Chicago Bears
1-1
Spread PHI -4.5 (opened CHI -1.5)Total 41.5Moneyline PHI -230 · CHI +1927 books · best PHI -223 pinnacle · CHI +197 pinnacle
Save imageSquare
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Lean
PHI -230
54%
model margin PHI by 1.3
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
CHI +4.5
51%
3.2 pts from the number · best CHI +5.5 at hardrockbet
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean
Over 41.5
51%
model total 43.4 · best over 41 at betmgm
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has PHI winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, CHI. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.

The read

A quarterback change matters here: Justin Fields is starting for Chicago Bears. The clearest mismatch is the rushing game: PHI rushing ranks #12, CHI defends it at #19; the other way CHI #6 into PHI's #6. The model lands on PHI by 1.3 against a market PHI by 4.5, so the spread lean is CHI by 3.2 points — a lean for reading the game, not the call itself.

Who has the edge

Model: PHI by 1.3 · market PHI by 4.5
Passing game
Even
—
PHI passing ranks #14, CHI defends it at #19; the other way CHI #9 into PHI's #9.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Slight edge
PHI
PHI rushing ranks #12, CHI defends it at #19; the other way CHI #6 into PHI's #6.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Even
—
CHI third-down conversion ranks #6, PHI defends it at #22; the other way PHI #24 into CHI's #16.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Slight edge
CHI
CHI +8.0 per game over the last five, PHI +3.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
PHI
Consensus has PHI by 4.5; the model says PHI by 1.3.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every NFL final since 2012, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,862 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket PHI by 4.5 · model PHI by 1.3
Mkt PHI 4.5
Model PHI 1.3
-28028

11.5% of NFL games land between the two numbers — the zone where the model’s side covers and the market’s does not. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.4%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).

Totalmarket 41.5 · model 43.4
Mkt 41.5
Model 43.4
204672

5.2% of NFL games finish between 41.5 and 43.4 — the games where the over cashes on the model’s read but not by much. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
Sharp side: PHI · model disagrees
Opened
CHI -1.5
Pinnacle now
PHI -4.5(-4)
Retail now
PHI -4.5
Moves
30 across 7 books · 7 led

First sharp move Mon 10:58 PM: CHI -2.5 → PHI -3, 1 book followed within six hours; retail was still PHI -3.5.

Total
Sharp side: the under · model disagrees
Opened
47.5
Pinnacle now
41.3(-4.5)
Retail now
41.5
Moves
28 across 7 books · 5 led

First sharp move Sun 11:22 PM: 47.5 → 44, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still 43.5.Steam Tue 4:05 PM

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.