The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
55%Cincinnati BengalsLean✗
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: Jacksonville Jaguars 53%, the other way, so the margin and score here are the model's own read and lean opposite the pick.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
JAX by 1.0market CIN by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
50.4 pointsmarket 51.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Cincinnati Bengals at 55% to win, with the market at CIN by 2.5.
Counterpoint: third downs and the red zone favours JAX. JAX red-zone touchdown rate ranks #2, CIN defends it at #3; the other way CIN #23 into JAX's #2. The pick still lands on CIN because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: JAX has the better last five games by 9.8 points a game (CIN +3.0, JAX +12.8).
Home field is with CIN, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it JAX by 1.0 against a market CIN by 2.5: 3.5 points of daylight in JAX's favour. The model's total is 50.4 against a line of 51.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model JAX by 1.0 · market CIN by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
JAX
Slight advantage
JAX passing ranks #4, CIN defends it at #10; the other way CIN #14 into JAX's #8.
Rushing game
JAX
Clear advantage
JAX rushing ranks #5, CIN defends it at #14; the other way CIN #18 into JAX's #8.
Third down & red zone
JAX
Clear advantage
JAX red-zone touchdown rate ranks #2, CIN defends it at #3; the other way CIN #23 into JAX's #2.
Big plays
JAX
Slight advantage
JAX explosive rush rate ranks #8, CIN defends it at #24; the other way CIN #11 into JAX's #4.
Pass protection & rush
CIN
Clear advantage
CIN sack rate ranks #14, JAX defends it at #13; the other way JAX #21 into CIN's #3.
Ball security
JAX
Clear advantage
JAX turnovers / game ranks #7, CIN defends it at #14; the other way CIN #14 into JAX's #2.
Form (last 5)
JAX
Clear advantage
CIN +3.0 per game over the last five, JAX +12.8.
Market
CIN
Slight advantage
Consensus has CIN by 2.5; the model says JAX by 1.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket CIN by 2.5 · model JAX by 1.0
Mkt CIN 2.5
Model JAX 1.0
← JAX by 28tieCIN by 28 →
7.2% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 51.5 · model 50.4
Mkt 51.5
Model 50.4
20 pts4672 pts
3.9% of NFL games finish between 51.5 and 50.4. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: CINModel disagrees
Opened
CIN -2.5
→
Market maker now
CIN -2.5
▲ 0.5 since open
→
Retail now
CIN -2.5
in line
11 moves9 books2 led
Mon, Sep 28, 10:10 AM first sharp move: CIN -1.5 → CIN -2.5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still CIN -2.5 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the overModel disagrees
Opened
50.8
→
Market maker now
52
▲ 0.8 since open
→
Retail now
51.5
0.5 behind
23 moves9 books1 led
Mon, Sep 28, 10:06 PM first sharp move: 51.5 → 52
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 51 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
