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Buffalo Bills
13-6 last yr · #2 Elo
at
Mon, Nov 9, 8:15 PM ET
U.S. Bank Stadium · Indoors
Minnesota Vikings
9-8 last yr · #11 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline —
The read
On rating alone Buffalo Bills are 2.7 points better (#2 vs #11 of 32), and MIN add 0.0 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the passing game: BUF passing ranks #4, MIN defends it at #2; the other way MIN #29 into BUF's #10.
Who has the edge
Rating
Slight edge
BUF
BUF rated 2.7 points better on Elo (#11 vs #2).
Home & rest
Even
—
MIN gets 0.0 points for home field.
Quarterback
not priced
—
Usual starters on both sides — Kyler Murray and Josh Allen — no adjustment.
Passing game
Clear edge
BUF
BUF passing ranks #4, MIN defends it at #2; the other way MIN #29 into BUF's #10.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Even
—
BUF rushing ranks #1, MIN defends it at #13; the other way MIN #18 into BUF's #29.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Even
—
BUF third-down conversion ranks #3, MIN defends it at #3; the other way MIN #31 into BUF's #24.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
MIN
MIN +13.6 per game over the last five, BUF +5.8.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Buffalo BillsMinnesota Vikings
1609 Elo · #2
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
BUF +2.7 pts
1549 Elo · #11
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
Allen · +7.6 EPA/g
QuarterbackStarter's value against what the team usually gets at quarterback. Only moves when someone other than the usual starter plays.
even
Murray · +2.0 EPA/g
−1.6 pts vs MIN D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
BUF +1.5 pts
−3.1 pts vs BUF D
L W W L W · +5.8
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
MIN +3.9 pts
W W W W W · +13.6
2 out/IR
InjuriesCount of players listed Out or on IR. Not priced beyond the quarterback.
not priced
5 out/IR
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
nflverse play-by-play + FTN charting · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸MIN explosive rush rate (#4) against a BUF defense ranked #30 at stopping it
- ▸BUF defense (#7 interceptions forced) against a MIN offense ranked #32
- ▸BUF defense (#7 pass success rate allowed) against a MIN offense ranked #28
- ▸BUF defense (#7 yards / dropback allowed) against a MIN offense ranked #28
- ▸BUF defense (#6 completion % over expected allowed) against a MIN offense ranked #27
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Buffalo Bills offense vs Minnesota Vikings defense
ranks of 32| BUF off | MIN def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate facedDropbacks as a share of plays. On the defense column: what opponents do against them. | 56% | 52% | · |
| Early-down pass rateFirst and second down only — the cleanest read on run-heavy vs pass-heavy. | 52% | 46% | · |
| Neutral-script pass rateEarly downs with win probability between 20% and 80%: intent, not catch-up mode. | 53% | 49% | · |
| Pass rate over expectedHow much more (or less) a team passes than the down, distance, score and clock predict. nflverse xpass. | −3.0% | −8.9% | · |
| Seconds per playTime of possession divided by plays — lower is faster. | 31.9 | 31.7 | · |
| No-huddle | 6% | 9% | · |
| Shotgun | 51% | 57% | · |
| Play-action rate / Play-action facedShare of dropbacks with a play fake (FTN charting). | 26% | 24% | · |
| RPO rate / RPOs faced | 7% | 4% | · |
| Screen rate / Screens faced | 9% | 8% | · |
| Pre-snap motion / Motion faced | 61% | 53% | · |
| Blitzes faced / Blitz rateFive or more pass rushers (FTN). On the offense column: how often opponents blitz them. | 29% | 46% | · |
| Pass rushers faced / Avg pass rushers | 4.30 | 4.61 | · |
| Passing | |||
| EPA / dropbackThe single best pass-efficiency number; on the defense column, what they allow. | +0.20#4▲ | −0.12#2▼ | · |
| Pass success rate | 49%#6 | 40%#3▼ | · |
| Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. | 10.9%#4 | 6.1%#1▼ | · |
| Yards / dropback | 7.0#4 | 5.6#6▼ | · |
| Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at. | 7.5 | 6.8 | · |
| Deep-ball rate (20+ air) | 11% | 9% | · |
| Short throws (≤5 air) | 56% | 56% | · |
| Completion % over expectednflverse CPOE, per attempt. Defense column: what they allow. | +4.2#5▲ | −4.4#4▼ | · |
| YAC / completion | 5.8#4 | 5.3#22 | BUF |
| Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create. | 6.6%#19▼ | 9.3%#3▲ | MIN |
| Scramble rate | 8.5% | 5.7% | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 2.1%#17 | 1.8%#21▲ | · |
| Throws left / middle / rightDirection shares are shown in full on the row. | L 38 · M 21 · R 42 | L 39 · M 23 · R 37 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| EPA / rush | +0.07#1▲ | −0.08#13▼ | BUF |
| Rush success rate | 48%#2 | 42%#21 | BUF |
| Explosive rush rateRushes of 10+ yards. | 12.0%#3 | 9.4%#16▼ | BUF |
| Yards / rush | 4.8#4 | 3.8#6 | · |
| Runs left / middle / right | L 34 · M 27 · R 39 | L 33 · M 28 · R 39 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Third-down conversion | 47%#3 | 35%#3 | · |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 67%#2 | 43%#1▼ | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.21#18▲ | 1.18#16▲ | · |
| Plays / game | 63 | 60 | · |
Minnesota Vikings offense vs Buffalo Bills defense
ranks of 32| MIN off | BUF def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate facedDropbacks as a share of plays. On the defense column: what opponents do against them. | 61% | 58% | · |
| Early-down pass rateFirst and second down only — the cleanest read on run-heavy vs pass-heavy. | 55% | 53% | · |
| Neutral-script pass rateEarly downs with win probability between 20% and 80%: intent, not catch-up mode. | 54% | 52% | · |
| Pass rate over expectedHow much more (or less) a team passes than the down, distance, score and clock predict. nflverse xpass. | −1.2% | −5.9% | · |
| Seconds per playTime of possession divided by plays — lower is faster. | 30.7 | 28.7 | · |
| No-huddle | 8% | 9% | · |
| Shotgun | 56% | 73% | · |
| Play-action rate / Play-action facedShare of dropbacks with a play fake (FTN charting). | 26% | 21% | · |
| RPO rate / RPOs faced | 5% | 7% | · |
| Screen rate / Screens faced | 9% | 8% | · |
| Pre-snap motion / Motion faced | 52% | 56% | · |
| Blitzes faced / Blitz rateFive or more pass rushers (FTN). On the offense column: how often opponents blitz them. | 26% | 26% | · |
| Pass rushers faced / Avg pass rushers | 4.29 | 4.27 | · |
| Passing | |||
| EPA / dropbackThe single best pass-efficiency number; on the defense column, what they allow. | −0.16#29▼ | −0.05#10▲ | BUF |
| Pass success rate | 42%#28 | 42%#7 | BUF |
| Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. | 7.0%#24▼ | 7.5%#9 | BUF |
| Yards / dropback | 5.4#28 | 5.7#7 | BUF |
| Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at. | 7.8 | 7.6 | · |
| Deep-ball rate (20+ air) | 12% | 13% | · |
| Short throws (≤5 air) | 51% | 53% | · |
| Completion % over expectednflverse CPOE, per attempt. Defense column: what they allow. | −2.9#27▲ | −2.8#6▼ | BUF |
| YAC / completion | 5.1#15 | 4.7#8 | BUF |
| Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create. | 10.5%#31▲ | 6.0%#19▼ | BUF |
| Scramble rate | 4.9% | 5.7% | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 4.3%#32▼ | 3.0%#7 | BUF |
| Throws left / middle / rightDirection shares are shown in full on the row. | L 36 · M 18 · R 46 | L 37 · M 18 · R 45 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| EPA / rush | −0.05#18▲ | +0.04#29▼ | MIN |
| Rush success rate | 44%#8 | 44%#24 | MIN |
| Explosive rush rateRushes of 10+ yards. | 11.7%#4 | 13.7%#30 | MIN |
| Yards / rush | 4.4#11 | 4.9#30 | MIN |
| Runs left / middle / right | L 33 · M 29 · R 37 | L 40 · M 23 · R 37 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Third-down conversion | 32%#31 | 43%#24 | BUF |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 57%#17▼ | 58%#19 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.65#32▼ | 1.21#14 | BUF |
| Plays / game | 55 | 56 | · |
Route-by-route data (which routes are run and how coverage plays them) is not published anywhere public — it is sold by PFF and NGS. Throw depth, direction, play-action, RPO, screens, motion and pass-rush counts above are the public pieces of the same picture.
Buffalo Bills · key players
- Josh Allen QB20.7/29.7 · 235 yds/g · 29-12 TD-INT · +0.15 EPA/db
- Khalil Shakir WRQuestionable6.4 tgt/g · 22% share · 49 yds/g · 4 TD · aDOT 3.4
- Keon Coleman WRQuestionable4.5 tgt/g · 15% share · 32 yds/g · 5 TD · aDOT 11.6
- Dalton Kincaid TE4.3 tgt/g · 15% share · 49 yds/g · 7 TD · aDOT 9.3
- Dawson Knox TE3.2 tgt/g · 11% share · 27 yds/g · 4 TD · aDOT 6.8
- James Cook RB18.3 car/g · 94 yds/g · 5.1 ypc · 12 TD · −0.00 EPA/car
- Ray Davis RB4.1 car/g · 20 yds/g · 4.7 ypc · 0 TD · +0.02 EPA/car
2025 season, per game. Targets ranked by volume, rushers by carries.nflverse weekly player stats. Target share is the player's average share of his team's targets in the games he played. A player who changed teams carries his own games from last season.
Minnesota Vikings · key players
- J.J. McCarthy QB14.0/24.3 · 163 yds/g · 11-12 TD-INT · −0.20 EPA/db
- Listed starter this week: Kyler Murray — line above is J.J. McCarthy's.
- Justin Jefferson WR8.3 tgt/g · 31% share · 62 yds/g · 2 TD · aDOT 10.2
- Jordan Addison WR5.6 tgt/g · 18% share · 44 yds/g · 3 TD · aDOT 13.7
- T.J. Hockenson TE4.4 tgt/g · 16% share · 29 yds/g · 3 TD · aDOT 5.0
- Jalen Nailor WR3.1 tgt/g · 12% share · 26 yds/g · 4 TD · aDOT 12.4
- Jordan Mason RB9.9 car/g · 47 yds/g · 4.8 ypc · 6 TD · −0.04 EPA/car
- Aaron Jones RB11.0 car/g · 46 yds/g · 4.2 ypc · 2 TD · −0.02 EPA/car
2025 season, per game. Targets ranked by volume, rushers by carries.nflverse weekly player stats. Target share is the player's average share of his team's targets in the games he played. A player who changed teams carries his own games from last season.
Season
| BUF | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 13-6 | Record | 9-8 |
| 28.3 | Points for / game | 20.2 |
| 22.2 | Points against / game | 19.6 |
| 7-2 / 6-4 | Home / road | 4-4 / 5-4 |
| 9-10 | Against the spread | 9-8 |
| 10-9 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 8-9 |
| L W W L W | Last 5 | W W W W W |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| BUF | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 1609 | Elo | 1549 |
| #2 of 32 | Rank | #11 of 32 |
| +4.0 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −2.9 |
| +0.2 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +5.5 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | — |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Efficiency
| BUF | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.129 | EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play, nflverse. The single best efficiency number. | -0.120 |
| -0.008 | EPA / play allowed | -0.087 |
| 239 | Pass yards / game | 189 |
| 157 | Rush yards / game | 108 |
| 178 | Pass yards allowed | 178 |
| 134 | Rush yards allowed | 124 |
| 1.1 / 1.5 | Turnovers / takeaways | 1.4 / 1.5 |
| 2.3 / 1.9 | Sacks allowed / made | 3.5 / 2.9 |
| 20.5 | First downs / game | 15.2 |
| 50 | Penalty yards / game | 52 |
| +7.6 · #2 of 52 | QB EPA / gameThe listed starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games. | +2.0 · #22 of 52 |
Efficiency is from the 2025 season until this one has games. Source: nflverse.
Head to head
| 2022 | MIN 33 at BUF 30 | MIN · MIN covered |
| 2018 | BUF 27 at MIN 6 | BUF · BUF covered |
| 2014 | MIN 16 at BUF 17 | BUF · MIN covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- BUF +2.7 pts
- Home field
- MIN +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Quarterback
- Usual starters — no adjustment
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- —
Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).
Buffalo Bills injuries
- Tyrell Shavers WROut
- Zane Durant DTInjured Reserve
- Jedrick Wills Jr. OTQuestionable
- Jude Bowry OTQuestionable
- Keon Coleman WRQuestionable
- Khalil Shakir WRQuestionable
- Ty Johnson RBQuestionable
From ESPN's report. The model prices the quarterback; other absences are context it does not yet price.
Minnesota Vikings injuries
- Jamal Adams LBInjured Reserve
- Jermar Jefferson RBInjured Reserve
- Marcus Allen CBInjured Reserve
- Michael Jurgens CInjured Reserve
- Tyler Batty LBInjured Reserve
- Caleb Tiernan OTQuestionable
- Jacob Thomas SQuestionable
- Jakobe Thomas SQuestionable
From ESPN's report. The model prices the quarterback; other absences are context it does not yet price.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.