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Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · Reliant Stadium · Indoors
BUF -1.5 · O/U 44.5
BUF -118 · HOU -102
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
HOU -102
57%
model margin HOU by 2.5
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
HOU +1.5
52%
4.0 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 44.5
52%
model total 48.3
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 1604 | 4.0 | 0.2 | — | 0 |
| Houston Texans | 1604 | 1.8 | 2.8 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- BUF +0 Elo
- Home field
- HOU +2.5 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- Indoors
- Model margin
- HOU by 2.5
- Market spread
- BUF -1.5
- Model total
- 48.3 vs 44.5
- Moneyline
- BUF -118 · HOU -102
Buffalo Bills injuries
- Tyrell Shavers WROut
- Zane Durant DTInjured Reserve
- Jedrick Wills Jr. OTQuestionable
- Jude Bowry OTQuestionable
- Keon Coleman WRQuestionable
- Khalil Shakir WRQuestionable
- Terrel Bernard LBQuestionable
- Ty Johnson RBQuestionable
From ESPN's report. Shown for context — the model does not yet price individual absences, which is the known gap between it and the market.
Houston Texans injuries
- E.J. Speed LBOut
- M.J. Stewart SOut
- Ali Gaye DEInjured Reserve
- Braden Smith OTInjured Reserve
- Dylan Horton DEInjured Reserve
- Ja'Marcus Ingram CBInjured Reserve
- K.C. Ossai LBInjured Reserve
- Kyonte Hamilton DTInjured Reserve
- Sam Hagen GInjured Reserve
- Solomon Byrd DEInjured Reserve
- Tank Dell WRInjured Reserve
- Brevin Jordan TEQuestionable
From ESPN's report. Shown for context — the model does not yet price individual absences, which is the known gap between it and the market.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.