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Buffalo Bills
13-6 last yr · #2 Elo
at
Fri, Dec 25, 4:30 PM ET
Empower Field at Mile High
Denver Broncos
15-4 last yr · #4 Elo
Spread BUF -1.5Total 46.5Moneyline BUF -132 · DEN +112
The read
On rating alone Buffalo Bills are 0.6 points better (#2 vs #4 of 32), and DEN add 0.0 for home field.
Who has the edge
Rating
Even
—
BUF rated 0.6 points better on Elo (#4 vs #2).
Home & rest
Even
—
DEN gets 0.0 points for home field.
Quarterback
not priced
—
Usual starters on both sides — Bo Nix and Josh Allen — no adjustment.
Passing game
Even
—
BUF passing ranks #4, DEN defends it at #7; the other way DEN #12 into BUF's #10.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Even
—
DEN rushing ranks #19, BUF defends it at #29; the other way BUF #1 into DEN's #10.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Even
—
DEN third-down conversion ranks #13, BUF defends it at #24; the other way BUF #3 into DEN's #6.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Slight edge
BUF
DEN +1.8 per game over the last five, BUF +5.8.
context · not in the margin
Market
Slight edge
BUF
Consensus has BUF by 1.5.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Buffalo BillsDenver Broncos
1609 Elo · #2
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
BUF +0.6 pts
1597 Elo · #4
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
Allen · +7.6 EPA/g
QuarterbackStarter's value against what the team usually gets at quarterback. Only moves when someone other than the usual starter plays.
even
Nix · +4.2 EPA/g
+0.4 pts vs DEN D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
DEN +0.2 pts
+0.6 pts vs BUF D
L W W L W · +5.8
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
BUF +2.0 pts
L W W W L · +1.8
2 out/IR
InjuriesCount of players listed Out or on IR. Not priced beyond the quarterback.
not priced
8 out/IR
BUF -1.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
BUF +1.5 pts
DEN +1.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
nflverse play-by-play + FTN charting · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸DEN defense (#1 sack rate generated) against a BUF offense ranked #19
- ▸BUF defense (#7 pass success rate allowed) against a DEN offense ranked #24
- ▸BUF defense (#6 completion % over expected allowed) against a DEN offense ranked #23
- ▸DEN sack rate (#2) against a BUF defense ranked #19 at stopping it
- ▸DEN rush success rate (#10) against a BUF defense ranked #24 at stopping it
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Buffalo Bills offense vs Denver Broncos defense
ranks of 32| BUF off | DEN def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate facedDropbacks as a share of plays. On the defense column: what opponents do against them. | 56% | 64% | · |
| Early-down pass rateFirst and second down only — the cleanest read on run-heavy vs pass-heavy. | 52% | 58% | · |
| Neutral-script pass rateEarly downs with win probability between 20% and 80%: intent, not catch-up mode. | 53% | 57% | · |
| Pass rate over expectedHow much more (or less) a team passes than the down, distance, score and clock predict. nflverse xpass. | −3.0% | −0.4% | · |
| Seconds per playTime of possession divided by plays — lower is faster. | 31.9 | 28.7 | · |
| No-huddle | 6% | 13% | · |
| Shotgun | 51% | 75% | · |
| Play-action rate / Play-action facedShare of dropbacks with a play fake (FTN charting). | 26% | 21% | · |
| RPO rate / RPOs faced | 7% | 9% | · |
| Screen rate / Screens faced | 9% | 7% | · |
| Pre-snap motion / Motion faced | 61% | 56% | · |
| Blitzes faced / Blitz rateFive or more pass rushers (FTN). On the offense column: how often opponents blitz them. | 29% | 33% | · |
| Pass rushers faced / Avg pass rushers | 4.30 | 4.38 | · |
| Passing | |||
| EPA / dropbackThe single best pass-efficiency number; on the defense column, what they allow. | +0.20#4▲ | −0.07#7▼ | · |
| Pass success rate | 49%#6 | 38%#2 | · |
| Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. | 10.9%#4 | 6.5%#4 | · |
| Yards / dropback | 7.0#4 | 5.0#1 | · |
| Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at. | 7.5 | 8.9 | · |
| Deep-ball rate (20+ air) | 11% | 15% | · |
| Short throws (≤5 air) | 56% | 49% | · |
| Completion % over expectednflverse CPOE, per attempt. Defense column: what they allow. | +4.2#5▲ | −3.3#5▼ | · |
| YAC / completion | 5.8#4 | 4.6#6 | · |
| Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create. | 6.6%#19▼ | 9.9%#1 | DEN |
| Scramble rate | 8.5% | 5.7% | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 2.1%#17 | 1.9%#20▲ | · |
| Throws left / middle / rightDirection shares are shown in full on the row. | L 38 · M 21 · R 42 | L 37 · M 19 · R 44 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| EPA / rush | +0.07#1▲ | −0.09#10▲ | BUF |
| Rush success rate | 48%#2 | 37%#3 | · |
| Explosive rush rateRushes of 10+ yards. | 12.0%#3 | 6.8%#3▲ | · |
| Yards / rush | 4.8#4 | 3.6#3 | · |
| Runs left / middle / right | L 34 · M 27 · R 39 | L 33 · M 27 · R 40 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Third-down conversion | 47%#3 | 36%#6 | · |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 67%#2 | 44%#3 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.21#18▲ | 0.95#22▲ | · |
| Plays / game | 63 | 63 | · |
Denver Broncos offense vs Buffalo Bills defense
ranks of 32| DEN off | BUF def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate facedDropbacks as a share of plays. On the defense column: what opponents do against them. | 63% | 58% | · |
| Early-down pass rateFirst and second down only — the cleanest read on run-heavy vs pass-heavy. | 57% | 53% | · |
| Neutral-script pass rateEarly downs with win probability between 20% and 80%: intent, not catch-up mode. | 59% | 52% | · |
| Pass rate over expectedHow much more (or less) a team passes than the down, distance, score and clock predict. nflverse xpass. | +1.7% | −5.9% | · |
| Seconds per playTime of possession divided by plays — lower is faster. | 29.2 | 28.7 | · |
| No-huddle | 13% | 9% | · |
| Shotgun | 66% | 73% | · |
| Play-action rate / Play-action facedShare of dropbacks with a play fake (FTN charting). | 24% | 21% | · |
| RPO rate / RPOs faced | 9% | 7% | · |
| Screen rate / Screens faced | 11% | 8% | · |
| Pre-snap motion / Motion faced | 50% | 56% | · |
| Blitzes faced / Blitz rateFive or more pass rushers (FTN). On the offense column: how often opponents blitz them. | 22% | 26% | · |
| Pass rushers faced / Avg pass rushers | 4.08 | 4.27 | · |
| Passing | |||
| EPA / dropbackThe single best pass-efficiency number; on the defense column, what they allow. | +0.08#12▼ | −0.05#10▲ | · |
| Pass success rate | 43%#24 | 42%#7 | BUF |
| Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. | 7.4%#19 | 7.5%#9 | BUF |
| Yards / dropback | 6.0#19 | 5.7#7 | BUF |
| Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at. | 7.2 | 7.6 | · |
| Deep-ball rate (20+ air) | 12% | 13% | · |
| Short throws (≤5 air) | 61% | 53% | · |
| Completion % over expectednflverse CPOE, per attempt. Defense column: what they allow. | −1.7#23▼ | −2.8#6▼ | BUF |
| YAC / completion | 5.3#13 | 4.7#8 | · |
| Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create. | 3.4%#2▲ | 6.0%#19▼ | DEN |
| Scramble rate | 5.5% | 5.7% | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.9%#10 | 3.0%#7 | · |
| Throws left / middle / rightDirection shares are shown in full on the row. | L 40 · M 16 · R 44 | L 37 · M 18 · R 45 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| EPA / rush | −0.06#19▼ | +0.04#29▼ | DEN |
| Rush success rate | 43%#10 | 44%#24 | DEN |
| Explosive rush rateRushes of 10+ yards. | 9.5%#17▼ | 13.7%#30 | DEN |
| Yards / rush | 4.2#18▼ | 4.9#30 | DEN |
| Runs left / middle / right | L 40 · M 21 · R 39 | L 40 · M 23 · R 37 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Third-down conversion | 41%#13 | 43%#24 | DEN |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 56%#22▼ | 58%#19 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 0.95#11 | 1.21#14 | · |
| Plays / game | 63 | 56 | · |
Route-by-route data (which routes are run and how coverage plays them) is not published anywhere public — it is sold by PFF and NGS. Throw depth, direction, play-action, RPO, screens, motion and pass-rush counts above are the public pieces of the same picture.
Buffalo Bills · key players
- Josh Allen QB20.7/29.7 · 235 yds/g · 29-12 TD-INT · +0.15 EPA/db
- Khalil Shakir WRQuestionable6.4 tgt/g · 22% share · 49 yds/g · 4 TD · aDOT 3.4
- Keon Coleman WRQuestionable4.5 tgt/g · 15% share · 32 yds/g · 5 TD · aDOT 11.6
- Dalton Kincaid TE4.3 tgt/g · 15% share · 49 yds/g · 7 TD · aDOT 9.3
- Dawson Knox TE3.2 tgt/g · 11% share · 27 yds/g · 4 TD · aDOT 6.8
- James Cook RB18.3 car/g · 94 yds/g · 5.1 ypc · 12 TD · −0.00 EPA/car
- Ray Davis RB4.1 car/g · 20 yds/g · 4.7 ypc · 0 TD · +0.02 EPA/car
2025 season, per game. Targets ranked by volume, rushers by carries.nflverse weekly player stats. Target share is the player's average share of his team's targets in the games he played. A player who changed teams carries his own games from last season.
Denver Broncos · key players
- Bo Nix QB23.0/36.6 · 234 yds/g · 28-12 TD-INT · +0.10 EPA/db
- Courtland Sutton WR7.3 tgt/g · 21% share · 57 yds/g · 8 TD · aDOT 12.3
- Troy Franklin WR6.1 tgt/g · 18% share · 42 yds/g · 6 TD · aDOT 12.7
- Evan Engram TE4.6 tgt/g · 13% share · 27 yds/g · 1 TD · aDOT 4.2
- Marvin Mims Jr. WRQuestionable3.8 tgt/g · 11% share · 28 yds/g · 2 TD · aDOT 9.2
- RJ Harvey RB8.7 car/g · 31 yds/g · 3.6 ypc · 7 TD · −0.16 EPA/car
- J.K. Dobbins RB15.3 car/g · 77 yds/g · 5.0 ypc · 4 TD · +0.03 EPA/car
2025 season, per game. Targets ranked by volume, rushers by carries.nflverse weekly player stats. Target share is the player's average share of his team's targets in the games he played. A player who changed teams carries his own games from last season.
Season
| BUF | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 13-6 | Record | 15-4 |
| 28.3 | Points for / game | 23.2 |
| 22.2 | Points against / game | 18.5 |
| 7-2 / 6-4 | Home / road | 9-2 / 6-2 |
| 9-10 | Against the spread | 9-10 |
| 10-9 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 8-11 |
| L W W L W | Last 5 | L W W W L |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| BUF | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 1609 | Elo | 1597 |
| #2 of 32 | Rank | #4 of 32 |
| +4.0 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +0.8 |
| +0.2 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +3.6 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | — |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Efficiency
| BUF | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.129 | EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play, nflverse. The single best efficiency number. | 0.026 |
| -0.008 | EPA / play allowed | -0.081 |
| 239 | Pass yards / game | 229 |
| 157 | Rush yards / game | 114 |
| 178 | Pass yards allowed | 209 |
| 134 | Rush yards allowed | 99 |
| 1.1 / 1.5 | Turnovers / takeaways | 0.8 / 1.3 |
| 2.3 / 1.9 | Sacks allowed / made | 1.4 / 4.0 |
| 20.5 | First downs / game | 17.7 |
| 50 | Penalty yards / game | 62 |
| +7.6 · #2 of 52 | QB EPA / gameThe listed starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games. | +4.2 · #14 of 52 |
Efficiency is from the 2025 season until this one has games. Source: nflverse.
Head to head
| 2025 | BUF 30 at DEN 33 | DEN · DEN covered |
| 2024 | DEN 7 at BUF 31 | BUF · BUF covered |
| 2023 | DEN 24 at BUF 22 | DEN · DEN covered |
| 2020 | BUF 48 at DEN 19 | BUF · BUF covered |
| 2019 | DEN 3 at BUF 20 | BUF · BUF covered |
| 2017 | DEN 16 at BUF 26 | BUF · BUF covered |
| 2014 | BUF 17 at DEN 24 | DEN · BUF covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- BUF +0.6 pts
- Home field
- DEN +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Quarterback
- Usual starters — no adjustment
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- BUF -1.5
- Total
- 46.5
- Moneyline
- BUF -132 · DEN +112
Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).
Buffalo Bills injuries
- Tyrell Shavers WROut
- Zane Durant DTInjured Reserve
- Jedrick Wills Jr. OTQuestionable
- Jude Bowry OTQuestionable
- Keon Coleman WRQuestionable
- Khalil Shakir WRQuestionable
- Ty Johnson RBQuestionable
From ESPN's report. The model prices the quarterback; other absences are context it does not yet price.
Denver Broncos injuries
- Jonathon Cooper LBOut
- Nick Gargiulo GOut
- Caleb Lohner TEInjured Reserve
- Drew Sanders LBInjured Reserve
- Frank Crum OTInjured Reserve
- Levelle Bailey LBInjured Reserve
- Matt Henningsen DEInjured Reserve
- Michael Deiter CInjured Reserve
- Luke Wattenberg CQuestionable
- Marvin Mims Jr. WRQuestionable
- Riley Moss CBQuestionable
From ESPN's report. The model prices the quarterback; other absences are context it does not yet price.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.