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NFL player prop trends

Where a player's own games in tonight's situations and the books' no-vig price disagree by more than luck usually explains, plus team trends for the day's games. History, not a pick.
About this page
5 of 336 splits cleared the bar on 69 priced NFL props; about 1.9 would clear it by luck alone. History, not a pick.

NFLplayer insights

336 splits checked; 5 cleared the bar, and about 1.9 would clear it by luck alone if the books were exactly right.

  1. Kenny Gainwell
    Kenny Gainwell
    TB @ DAL · Thu 8:15 PM ET
    Receptions 1.5

    Kenny Gainwell has gone over 1.5 receptions in 20 of 22 games over the last two seasons.

    Also cleared the bar (underdog): 12 of 13 on the over side.

    Last 10 · oldest to newest
    History
    ▲ 91%
    20 of 22
    90%: 76–97%
    Books
    54%
    fair chance
    Over 1.5, no-vig
    Best price
    -130 (opens FanDuel in a new tab)
    FanDuel
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See all 3 with ProThe top-ranked trend and the team trends are free. The rest of the list is part of Pro.

Team trends for upcoming games

TB at DALThu 8:15 PM ET
Team trends for this game: each team's number and its rank in the league
MeasureTBlast 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025DALlast 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025League
Red-zone trips allowed per game2.59#31 of 323.76#4 of 323.21
Red-zone trips per game2.94#21 of 323.82#2 of 323.21
Points for21.1#21 of 3228.2#3 of 3223.0
4th quarter points against5.9#17 of 328.4#3 of 326.4
Plays faced per game57.3#30 of 3259.1#21 of 3260.5
Plays per game61.1#13 of 3263.5#7 of 3260.5

The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 32 ranked teams, over each team's last 17 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Oct 2026; 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.

PHI at JAXSun 9:30 AM ET
Team trends for this game: each team's number and its rank in the league
MeasurePHIlast 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025JAXlast 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025League
Points for (home at home, visitor on the road)18.7#26 of 3234.0#1 of 3223.0
Red-zone trips per game2.71#26 of 323.71#5 of 323.21
Scoring margin (home at home, visitor on the road)−2.0#16 of 32+19.5#1 of 320.0
Plays faced per game63.5#4 of 3259.7#19 of 3260.5
Plays per game57.9#25 of 3260.9#15 of 3260.5
Red-zone touchdown rate allowed59.3%#14 of 3253.8%#21 of 3257.5%

The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 32 ranked teams, over each team's last 17 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Oct 2026; 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.

HOU at TENSun 1:00 PM ET
Team trends for this game: each team's number and its rank in the league
MeasureHOUlast 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025TENlast 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025League
2nd quarter points for8.4#6 of 322.9#32 of 326.8
Plays per game64.6#2 of 3257.7#27 of 3260.5
Scoring margin (home at home, visitor on the road)+6.4#4 of 32−7.1#28 of 320.0
Red-zone trips per game3.65#8 of 322.24#32 of 323.21
Red-zone touchdown rate50.0%#29 of 3257.9%#13 of 3257.4%
Dropback rate61.2%#13 of 3264.4%#4 of 3260.0%

The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 32 ranked teams, over each team's last 17 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Oct 2026; 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.

CIN at MIASun 1:00 PM ET
Team trends for this game: each team's number and its rank in the league
MeasureCINlast 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025MIAlast 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025League
Plays per game63.7#4 of 3255.1#32 of 3260.5
3rd quarter points for6.5#5 of 321.6#32 of 325.0
Dropback rate66.7%#2 of 3255.8%#28 of 3260.0%
Red-zone touchdown rate63.2%#7 of 3246.8%#31 of 3257.4%
4th quarter points against9.2#1 of 325.9#20 of 326.4
Red-zone trips per game3.35#15 of 322.76#23 of 323.21

The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 32 ranked teams, over each team's last 17 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Oct 2026; 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.

LV at NESun 1:00 PM ET
Team trends for this game: each team's number and its rank in the league
MeasureLVlast 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025NElast 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025League
1st half points for7.3#31 of 3215.9#1 of 3211.4
Scoring margin (home at home, visitor on the road)−12.3#32 of 32+13.1#3 of 320.0
Red-zone trips allowed per game3.71#5 of 322.53#32 of 323.21
Plays faced per game61.9#10 of 3256.9#31 of 3260.5
Dropback rate63.2%#7 of 3259.3%#22 of 3260.0%
Red-zone trips per game2.41#29 of 323.35#15 of 323.21

The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 32 ranked teams, over each team's last 17 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Oct 2026; 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.

MIN at NOSun 1:00 PM ET
Team trends for this game: each team's number and its rank in the league
MeasureMINlast 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025NOlast 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025League
Plays per game55.8#31 of 3263.6#5 of 3260.5
1st quarter points against3.8#23 of 326.4#3 of 324.7
1st quarter points for4.9#17 of 322.0#32 of 324.7
Dropback rate59.7%#18 of 3264.8%#3 of 3260.0%
Red-zone trips allowed per game2.76#28 of 323.06#18 of 323.21
Red-zone touchdown rate allowed36.2%#32 of 3251.9%#24 of 3257.5%

The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 32 ranked teams, over each team's last 17 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Oct 2026; 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.

CLE at NYJSun 1:00 PM ET
Team trends for this game: each team's number and its rank in the league
MeasureCLElast 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025NYJlast 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025League
2nd quarter points against4.6#31 of 329.0#2 of 326.8
Share of points scored in the 1st half59.2%#3 of 3240.6%#30 of 3249.7%
Red-zone trips allowed per game2.94#23 of 324.06#2 of 323.21
Red-zone touchdown rate allowed52.0%#23 of 3263.8%#10 of 3257.5%
Plays faced per game60.6#16 of 3262.3#7 of 3260.5
Dropback rate61.5%#11 of 3260.8%#15 of 3260.0%

The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 32 ranked teams, over each team's last 17 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Oct 2026; 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.

IND at PITSun 1:00 PM ET
Team trends for this game: each team's number and its rank in the league
MeasureINDlast 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025PITlast 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025League
Red-zone trips allowed per game4.24#1 of 322.65#30 of 323.21
1st quarter points for6.0#4 of 323.8#26 of 324.7
Red-zone touchdown rate72.9%#2 of 3253.2%#22 of 3257.4%
Points against (home at home, visitor on the road)28.4#5 of 3220.1#24 of 3223.0
Dropback rate60.2%#17 of 3263.2%#6 of 3260.0%
Plays faced per game65.6#1 of 3261.9#10 of 3260.5

The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 32 ranked teams, over each team's last 17 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Oct 2026; 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.

NYG at WSHSun 1:00 PM ET
Team trends for this game: each team's number and its rank in the league
MeasureNYGlast 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025WSHlast 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025League
3rd quarter points against3.4#29 of 327.2#3 of 325.0
1st quarter points for5.1#10 of 322.3#31 of 324.7
Plays faced per game58.3#27 of 3262.1#8 of 3260.5
Plays per game62.1#10 of 3258.9#21 of 3260.5
Red-zone touchdown rate allowed63.8%#9 of 3272.6%#1 of 3257.5%
Red-zone touchdown rate54.5%#17 of 3260.4%#11 of 3257.4%

The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 32 ranked teams, over each team's last 17 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Oct 2026; 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.

CHI at GBSun 1:00 PM ET
Team trends for this game: each team's number and its rank in the league
MeasureCHIlast 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025GBlast 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025League
Plays per game66.9#1 of 3257.5#29 of 3260.5
1st quarter points for6.4#3 of 322.5#29 of 324.7
Plays faced per game57.9#29 of 3262.1#8 of 3260.5
Points against (home at home, visitor on the road)29.4#3 of 3221.0#21 of 3223.0
Red-zone touchdown rate allowed53.1%#22 of 3266.7%#5 of 3257.5%
Red-zone trips per game3.71#5 of 323.35#15 of 323.21

The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 32 ranked teams, over each team's last 17 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Oct 2026; 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.

DEN at LACSun 4:05 PM ET
Team trends for this game: each team's number and its rank in the league
MeasureDENlast 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025LAClast 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025League
Plays faced per game62.9#5 of 3256.4#32 of 3260.5
4th quarter points for9.0#1 of 325.2#27 of 326.4
1st quarter points against3.7#25 of 325.8#7 of 324.7
Red-zone touchdown rate57.1%#14 of 3251.7%#26 of 3257.4%
Red-zone touchdown rate allowed49.0%#28 of 3254.9%#17 of 3257.5%
Dropback rate63.0%#8 of 3261.0%#14 of 3260.0%

The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 32 ranked teams, over each team's last 17 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Oct 2026; 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.

DET at ARISun 4:25 PM ET
Team trends for this game: each team's number and its rank in the league
MeasureDETlast 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025ARIlast 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025League
2nd quarter points for9.6#1 of 325.6#24 of 326.8
Share of points allowed in the 1st half41.8%#30 of 3250.5%#13 of 3249.6%
Plays faced per game63.9#3 of 3259.5#20 of 3260.5
Red-zone trips allowed per game3.29#12 of 323.82#3 of 323.21
Dropback rate62.4%#9 of 3268.6%#1 of 3260.0%
Red-zone touchdown rate61.9%#8 of 3254.8%#16 of 3257.4%

The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 32 ranked teams, over each team's last 17 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Oct 2026; 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.

SF at SEASun 4:25 PM ET
Team trends for this game: each team's number and its rank in the league
MeasureSFlast 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025SEAlast 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025League
Red-zone touchdown rate73.8%#1 of 3254.2%#20 of 3257.4%
1st quarter points against4.8#15 of 323.0#30 of 324.7
1st quarter points for6.0#4 of 325.0#14 of 324.7
Red-zone trips per game3.82#2 of 323.47#12 of 323.21
Plays per game60.3#17 of 3258.7#23 of 3260.5
Dropback rate57.0%#25 of 3253.6%#31 of 3260.0%

The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 32 ranked teams, over each team's last 17 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Oct 2026; 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.

BAL at ATLSun 8:20 PM ET
Team trends for this game: each team's number and its rank in the league
MeasureBALlast 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025ATLlast 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025League
Scoring margin (home at home, visitor on the road)+13.4#1 of 32−10.1#30 of 320.0
Points for (home at home, visitor on the road)29.7#4 of 3217.0#31 of 3223.0
Red-zone touchdown rate52.5%#24 of 3270.2%#3 of 3257.4%
Plays faced per game61.1#14 of 3264.1#2 of 3260.5
Red-zone trips per game3.59#11 of 322.76#23 of 323.21
Plays per game57.6#28 of 3259.7#18 of 3260.5

The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 32 ranked teams, over each team's last 17 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Oct 2026; 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.

BUF at LARMon 8:15 PM ET
Team trends for this game: each team's number and its rank in the league
MeasureBUFlast 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025LARlast 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025League
1st quarter points for3.8#26 of 326.8#1 of 324.7
Plays faced per game58.4#25 of 3262.5#6 of 3260.5
1st quarter points against5.9#6 of 323.8#23 of 324.7
Red-zone touchdown rate allowed61.5%#13 of 3246.3%#30 of 3257.5%
Dropback rate55.7%#29 of 3260.5%#16 of 3260.0%
Red-zone trips per game3.65#8 of 324.35#1 of 323.21

The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 32 ranked teams, over each team's last 17 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Oct 2026; 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.

Other sportsCollege footballNBAWNBAMLBNHLCollege basketballAll sports

How a trend makes the list
  1. 1For every posted prop priced on both sides, the player's own games are split by the situations tonight really has: recent form, this season, home or road, this opponent, rest and so on (each sport's insights page lists them).
  2. 2Each split is compared with the books' no-vig chance of the same side, not with 50%. Only props the books price between 20% and 80% are tested.
  3. 3A split makes the list only if, from at least 5 games, the 99% range for the player's true rate does not include that chance. A situation that covers 90% or more of his games is his whole history under another name and is not tested.
  4. 4Splits are ranked by the gap after pulling his rate toward the price, with one card a prop (its strongest split; a second split on the same side is a line under it) and at most three a player. Read it as a place to look: the books may know about a role change, an injury or a matchup the history does not, and some of the list is luck by construction.

Soccer has no player prop insights: its props (anytime goal, anytime assist, shots on target) are yes-only, so there is no number and no under, and no two-way price to compare a player's history with. UFC has none either: it has fight lines, not player props. Both sports still have their own game pages and boards.

Player props across every sport →NFL prop insights, with the full method →Line shopping →

New to props? What a prop line isNo-vig (fair) oddsReading a hit rateWhat "moved" meansAll terms

Questions and answers

What are player prop trends?
Spots where a player's own games, in the situations tonight's game really has, sit far from the sportsbooks' own price for the same prop. They are history set against the market, shown with the sample size, a 90% range and the books' no-vig chance. They are not picks and no record of them is kept.
How does a trend make the list?
Every split of a player's games (home or road, this opponent, rest and so on) is compared with the books' no-vig chance of the same side. It stays only if, from at least 5 games, the 99% range for his true rate does not include that chance. The list is then ranked by the gap, with one card a prop (its strongest split; a second split on the same side is a line under it) and at most three a player.
How many NFL trends are luck?
Testing many splits at a strict bar still lets some through by chance. Right now, NFL: 336 checked, 5 cleared, about 1.9 by luck. Treat the list as places to look, not as findings.
What is free and what is Pro here?
Every sport's top-ranked trend and every team trend are free. The rest of each sport's list is part of Pro. The props boards, the player pages and the team trends stay free.
Are there trends for soccer or UFC?
Soccer has no player prop insights: its props (anytime goal, anytime assist, shots on target) are yes-only, so there is no number and no under, and no two-way price to compare a player's history with. UFC has none either: it has fight lines, not player props. Both sports still have their own game pages and boards.

Lines come from regulated US sportsbooks and can lag what a book shows right now. Each game is measured against tonight's line, not the number that game actually had. Trends describe past games, none of them is a recommendation, and no record of them is kept. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.