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New York (2-5) hosts Buffalo (5-1) at MetLife Stadium on Nov 15, 2026, 1:00 PM ET.
Lines post about a week before the game.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
BUF end zone ← 100 yards → NYJ end zone
A longer bar = a better setup for the offense: half from how high the offense ranks, half from how low the defense across from it ranks (of 32). A full bar is the best offense against the worst defense; the dashed tick is an even matchup. Biggest advantage first.
BUF has the clear advantage in passing, third-down conversion and red-zone touchdown rate; NYJ's defense has it in sacks.
NYJ has the clear advantage in passing and turnovers.
BUF offensevs
NYJ defenseBUF offense ranks better in 3 of 6 matchups (3 by a clear margin) · NYJ defense in 2 (1 by a clear margin) · 1 even
NYJ offensevsBUF defenseNYJ offense ranks better in 4 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · BUF defense in 2
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
223 a game, league 227 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
NYJ pressures on 23% of dropbacks (#31 of 32); he completes 37% under pressure (league 34%).
113 a game, league 96.0 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
Mixed: lots of yards allowed, but stingy per play this season
132 a game, league 141 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
His routes (Screen 26%, Shallow cross 14%, In / dig 14%): NYJ allowed 7.1 yds a target, league 7.0.
Same NYJ readings against WRs as above.
His routes (Go 28%, Hitch / curl 17%, Slant 14%): NYJ allowed 8.3 yds a target, league 8.4.
58.5 a game, league 54.0 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
His routes (Quick out 19%, In / dig 18%, Screen 12%): NYJ allowed 7.8 yds a target, league 7.8.
215 a game, league 227 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
Mixed: few yards allowed, but leaky per play this season
BUF pressures on 29% of dropbacks (#19 of 32); he completes 28% under pressure (league 34%).
95.8 a game, league 96.0 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
131 a game, league 141 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
His routes (Quick out 15%, Hitch / curl 14%, Go 14%): BUF allowed 7.7 yds a target, league 7.7.
Same BUF readings against WRs as above.
His routes (Go 23%, Hitch / curl 21%, Deep out 20%): BUF allowed 8.0 yds a target, league 8.0.
45.1 a game, league 54.0 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
Mixed: few yards allowed, but leaky per play this season
Players: this season's attempts, carries and targets (last season before a team's first game); anyone ruled out on the injury report is left off. Routes are where his targets came from over 2024–25, each route's yards shrunk toward the league's. Books already price these matchups.
Rank 1 allows the most. Each defense's last 17 games from box scores (early in a season that reaches back into last season; each row shows how many of its games are from each season), against the average defense. Books already price matchups: this is where to look, not a bet.
Where a player's own strength meets something tonight's opponent gives up more than most, measured against the league. Matchups like these were tested as inputs for player props and added nothing the books' lines do not already reflect: research, not a pick.
Lines from regulated US sportsbooks; the fair chance is the books' own, with their margin taken out.
Buffalo Bills2 listedNew York Jets7 listedTimes are when the report changed on our end, last 30 days.
The referee is posted closer to kickoff.
Book-by-book prices appear about a week before the game.
Not enough line history yet: the charts appear once the books have posted this game's numbers more than once.
Division rivals — they meet twice every season. BUF have won the last 5.
Buffalo BillsNew York JetsLines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the score. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Sportsbook links may be affiliate links; we may earn a commission if you sign up through them.
The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 32 ranked teams, over each team's last 17 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Oct 2026; 6–7 in 2026, 10–11 in 2025). A longer bar = higher in the league (rank 1 = highest, even for points allowed). A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.