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Buffalo (5-1) hosts Kansas City (5-1) at Highmark Stadium on Nov 26, 2026, 8:20 PM ET.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
KC end zone ← 100 yards → BUF end zone
A longer bar = a better setup for the offense: half from how high the offense ranks, half from how low the defense across from it ranks (of 32). A full bar is the best offense against the worst defense; the dashed tick is an even matchup. Biggest advantage first.
KC has the clear advantage in sacks, rushing, passing, third-down conversion, turnovers and red-zone touchdown rate.
BUF has the clear advantage in third-down conversion, sacks and passing; KC's defense has it in turnovers.
KC offensevs
BUF defenseKC offense ranks better in 6 of 6 matchups (6 by a clear margin) · BUF defense in 0
BUF offensevsKC defenseBUF offense ranks better in 4 of 6 matchups (3 by a clear margin) · KC defense in 2 (1 by a clear margin)
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
215 a game, league 227 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
Mixed: few yards allowed, but leaky per play this season
BUF pressures on 29% of dropbacks (#19 of 32); he completes 33% under pressure (league 34%).
95.8 a game, league 96.0 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
131 a game, league 141 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
His routes (Quick out 19%, Screen 16%, Hitch / curl 12%): BUF allowed 7.4 yds a target, league 7.5.
Same BUF readings against WRs as above.
His routes (Screen 23%, Slant 20%, Hitch / curl 14%): BUF allowed 6.8 yds a target, league 6.9.
45.1 a game, league 54.0 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
Mixed: few yards allowed, but leaky per play this season
His routes (Hitch / curl 31%, Quick out 16%, Shallow cross 10%): BUF allowed 7.2 yds a target, league 7.3.
215 a game, league 227 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
Both readings tough
KC pressures on 32% of dropbacks (#7 of 32); he completes 37% under pressure (league 34%).
78.3 a game, league 96.0 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
Both readings tough
125 a game, league 141 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
Both readings tough
His routes (Screen 26%, Shallow cross 14%, In / dig 14%): KC allowed 6.9 yds a target, league 7.0.
Same KC readings against WRs as above.
His routes (Go 28%, Hitch / curl 17%, Slant 14%): KC allowed 8.7 yds a target, league 8.4.
59.7 a game, league 54.0 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
Mixed: lots of yards allowed, but stingy per play this season
His routes (Quick out 19%, In / dig 18%, Screen 12%): KC allowed 7.8 yds a target, league 7.8.
Players: this season's attempts, carries and targets (last season before a team's first game); anyone ruled out on the injury report is left off. Routes are where his targets came from over 2024–25, each route's yards shrunk toward the league's. Books already price these matchups.
Rank 1 allows the most. Each defense's last 17 games from box scores (early in a season that reaches back into last season; each row shows how many of its games are from each season), against the average defense. Books already price matchups: this is where to look, not a bet.
Where a player's own strength meets something tonight's opponent gives up more than most, measured against the league. Matchups like these were tested as inputs for player props and added nothing the books' lines do not already reflect: research, not a pick.
Lines from regulated US sportsbooks; the fair chance is the books' own, with their margin taken out.
Kansas City Chiefs4 listedBuffalo Bills2 listedTimes are when the report changed on our end, last 30 days.
The referee is posted closer to kickoff.
Book-by-book prices appear about a week before the game.
Not enough line history yet: the charts appear once the books have posted this game's numbers more than once.
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (11 of the 15 seasons in our history).
Kansas City ChiefsBuffalo BillsLines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the score. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Sportsbook links may be affiliate links; we may earn a commission if you sign up through them.
The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 32 ranked teams, over each team's last 17 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Oct 2026; 6 in 2026, 11 in 2025). A longer bar = higher in the league (rank 1 = highest, even for points allowed). A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.