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New England Patriots
17-4 last yr · #6 Elo
at
Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET
EverBank Stadium
Jacksonville Jaguars
13-5 last yr · #7 Elo
Spread JAX -1.5Total 45.5Moneyline NE -102 · JAX -118
The read
On rating alone New England Patriots are 1.0 points better (#6 vs #7 of 32), and JAX add 0.0 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the rushing game: JAX rushing ranks #14, NE defends it at #12; the other way NE #27 into JAX's #16.
Who has the edge
Rating
Even
—
NE rated 1.0 points better on Elo (#7 vs #6).
Home & rest
Even
—
JAX gets 0.0 points for home field.
Quarterback
not priced
—
Usual starters on both sides — Trevor Lawrence and Drake Maye — no adjustment.
Passing game
Slight edge
NE
NE passing ranks #3, JAX defends it at #4; the other way JAX #10 into NE's #5.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Slight edge
JAX
JAX rushing ranks #14, NE defends it at #12; the other way NE #27 into JAX's #16.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
NE
NE third-down conversion ranks #10, JAX defends it at #21; the other way JAX #14 into NE's #7.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
JAX
JAX +15.8 per game over the last five, NE +8.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Slight edge
JAX
Consensus has JAX by 1.5.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
New England PatriotsJacksonville Jaguars
1586 Elo · #6
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
NE +1.0 pts
1564 Elo · #7
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
Maye · +7.0 EPA/g
QuarterbackStarter's value against what the team usually gets at quarterback. Only moves when someone other than the usual starter plays.
even
Lawrence · +3.5 EPA/g
−0.6 pts vs JAX D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
JAX +0.5 pts
−0.1 pts vs NE D
L W W W W · +8.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
JAX +3.9 pts
L W W W W · +15.8
7 out/IR
InjuriesCount of players listed Out or on IR. Not priced beyond the quarterback.
not priced
6 out/IR
NE +1.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
JAX +1.5 pts
JAX -1.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
nflverse play-by-play + FTN charting · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸JAX defense (#6 rush success rate allowed) against a NE offense ranked #28
- ▸NE defense (#4 yac / completion allowed) against a JAX offense ranked #25
- ▸JAX defense (#1 yac / completion allowed) against a NE offense ranked #16
- ▸NE defense (#8 yards / rush allowed) against a JAX offense ranked #23
- ▸JAX defense (#7 explosive rush rate allowed) against a NE offense ranked #21
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
New England Patriots offense vs Jacksonville Jaguars defense
ranks of 32| NE off | JAX def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate facedDropbacks as a share of plays. On the defense column: what opponents do against them. | 61% | 68% | · |
| Early-down pass rateFirst and second down only — the cleanest read on run-heavy vs pass-heavy. | 55% | 63% | · |
| Neutral-script pass rateEarly downs with win probability between 20% and 80%: intent, not catch-up mode. | 57% | 63% | · |
| Pass rate over expectedHow much more (or less) a team passes than the down, distance, score and clock predict. nflverse xpass. | +1.9% | +1.8% | · |
| Seconds per playTime of possession divided by plays — lower is faster. | 30.8 | 28.9 | · |
| No-huddle | 3% | 9% | · |
| Shotgun | 56% | 70% | · |
| Play-action rate / Play-action facedShare of dropbacks with a play fake (FTN charting). | 22% | 19% | · |
| RPO rate / RPOs faced | 2% | 5% | · |
| Screen rate / Screens faced | 5% | 8% | · |
| Pre-snap motion / Motion faced | 51% | 53% | · |
| Blitzes faced / Blitz rateFive or more pass rushers (FTN). On the offense column: how often opponents blitz them. | 29% | 26% | · |
| Pass rushers faced / Avg pass rushers | 4.33 | 4.26 | · |
| Passing | |||
| EPA / dropbackThe single best pass-efficiency number; on the defense column, what they allow. | +0.21#3▼ | −0.09#4▼ | · |
| Pass success rate | 52%#2▼ | 44%#12 | NE |
| Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. | 11.3%#2 | 6.8%#5▼ | · |
| Yards / dropback | 7.2#3▼ | 5.7#8 | · |
| Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at. | 9.4 | 8.0 | · |
| Deep-ball rate (20+ air) | 16% | 12% | · |
| Short throws (≤5 air) | 44% | 53% | · |
| Completion % over expectednflverse CPOE, per attempt. Defense column: what they allow. | +7.9#1▼ | −0.8#11▼ | NE |
| YAC / completion | 5.1#16 | 4.3#1 | JAX |
| Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create. | 9.0%#28▲ | 4.5%#30 | · |
| Scramble rate | 9.9% | 5.1% | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.9%#12▲ | 3.3%#4 | JAX |
| Throws left / middle / rightDirection shares are shown in full on the row. | L 40 · M 23 · R 37 | L 42 · M 20 · R 38 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| EPA / rush | −0.10#27▼ | −0.07#16▲ | JAX |
| Rush success rate | 37%#28 | 38%#6 | JAX |
| Explosive rush rateRushes of 10+ yards. | 9.1%#21▼ | 7.8%#7 | JAX |
| Yards / rush | 4.3#16▼ | 3.7#4 | JAX |
| Runs left / middle / right | L 36 · M 29 · R 35 | L 28 · M 42 · R 30 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Third-down conversion | 41%#10 | 41%#21 | NE |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 56%#21▲ | 62%#24▲ | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.14#16▲ | 1.61#3▼ | JAX |
| Plays / game | 60 | 60 | · |
Jacksonville Jaguars offense vs New England Patriots defense
ranks of 32| JAX off | NE def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate facedDropbacks as a share of plays. On the defense column: what opponents do against them. | 60% | 62% | · |
| Early-down pass rateFirst and second down only — the cleanest read on run-heavy vs pass-heavy. | 57% | 56% | · |
| Neutral-script pass rateEarly downs with win probability between 20% and 80%: intent, not catch-up mode. | 59% | 53% | · |
| Pass rate over expectedHow much more (or less) a team passes than the down, distance, score and clock predict. nflverse xpass. | +1.7% | −3.0% | · |
| Seconds per playTime of possession divided by plays — lower is faster. | 29.9 | 29.5 | · |
| No-huddle | 7% | 9% | · |
| Shotgun | 61% | 68% | · |
| Play-action rate / Play-action facedShare of dropbacks with a play fake (FTN charting). | 22% | 23% | · |
| RPO rate / RPOs faced | 5% | 6% | · |
| Screen rate / Screens faced | 8% | 7% | · |
| Pre-snap motion / Motion faced | 59% | 59% | · |
| Blitzes faced / Blitz rateFive or more pass rushers (FTN). On the offense column: how often opponents blitz them. | 26% | 32% | · |
| Pass rushers faced / Avg pass rushers | 4.29 | 4.40 | · |
| Passing | |||
| EPA / dropbackThe single best pass-efficiency number; on the defense column, what they allow. | +0.08#10▲ | −0.09#5▼ | · |
| Pass success rate | 47%#11 | 43%#10▼ | · |
| Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. | 9.0%#9 | 6.3%#3▼ | NE |
| Yards / dropback | 6.4#12 | 5.5#5▼ | NE |
| Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at. | 8.8 | 7.5 | · |
| Deep-ball rate (20+ air) | 14% | 11% | · |
| Short throws (≤5 air) | 45% | 51% | · |
| Completion % over expectednflverse CPOE, per attempt. Defense column: what they allow. | −1.9#24▲ | +0.2#15▼ | NE |
| YAC / completion | 4.8#25 | 4.6#4 | NE |
| Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create. | 6.2%#16▼ | 6.3%#16 | · |
| Scramble rate | 6.6% | 5.5% | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 2.4%#21▲ | 2.2%#17▲ | · |
| Throws left / middle / rightDirection shares are shown in full on the row. | L 42 · M 22 · R 36 | L 38 · M 22 · R 40 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| EPA / rush | −0.04#14▼ | −0.09#12▼ | · |
| Rush success rate | 41%#19 | 41%#17 | · |
| Explosive rush rateRushes of 10+ yards. | 8.7%#23▲ | 8.7%#10 | NE |
| Yards / rush | 4.0#23 | 3.9#8 | NE |
| Runs left / middle / right | L 34 · M 38 · R 28 | L 39 · M 21 · R 40 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Third-down conversion | 41%#14▲ | 36%#7 | NE |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 63%#8 | 58%#15▼ | JAX |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.11#14 | 1.24#9▲ | · |
| Plays / game | 62 | 58 | · |
Route-by-route data (which routes are run and how coverage plays them) is not published anywhere public — it is sold by PFF and NGS. Throw depth, direction, play-action, RPO, screens, motion and pass-rush counts above are the public pieces of the same picture.
New England Patriots · key players
- Drake Maye QB20.2/29.1 · 249 yds/g · 37-12 TD-INT · +0.18 EPA/db
- Stefon Diggs WR5.8 tgt/g · 21% share · 53 yds/g · 5 TD · aDOT 8.2
- Hunter Henry TE4.9 tgt/g · 17% share · 42 yds/g · 8 TD · aDOT 8.3
- Mack Hollins WR4.7 tgt/g · 16% share · 42 yds/g · 3 TD · aDOT 14.2
- Kayshon Boutte WR3.7 tgt/g · 14% share · 40 yds/g · 7 TD · aDOT 16.9
- TreVeyon Henderson RBQuestionable10.0 car/g · 47 yds/g · 4.7 ypc · 9 TD · −0.01 EPA/car
- Rhamondre Stevenson RB10.4 car/g · 46 yds/g · 4.4 ypc · 7 TD · −0.14 EPA/car
2025 season, per game. Targets ranked by volume, rushers by carries.nflverse weekly player stats. Target share is the player's average share of his team's targets in the games he played. A player who changed teams carries his own games from last season.
Jacksonville Jaguars · key players
- Trevor Lawrence QB19.9/32.8 · 234 yds/g · 32-14 TD-INT · +0.06 EPA/db
- Parker Washington WR6.7 tgt/g · 21% share · 60 yds/g · 6 TD · aDOT 12.5
- Brian Thomas Jr. WR6.2 tgt/g · 18% share · 49 yds/g · 3 TD · aDOT 14.4
- Brenton Strange TE5.0 tgt/g · 16% share · 42 yds/g · 3 TD · aDOT 7.2
- Jakobi Meyers WRQuestionable6.5 tgt/g · 22% share · 50 yds/g · 3 TD · aDOT 9.5
- Travis Etienne RB15.0 car/g · 65 yds/g · 4.3 ypc · 7 TD · −0.06 EPA/car
- Bhayshul Tuten RBQuestionable5.4 car/g · 22 yds/g · 4.1 ypc · 5 TD · −0.08 EPA/car
2025 season, per game. Targets ranked by volume, rushers by carries.nflverse weekly player stats. Target share is the player's average share of his team's targets in the games he played. A player who changed teams carries his own games from last season.
Season
| NE | JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| 17-4 | Record | 13-5 |
| 26.5 | Points for / game | 27.7 |
| 17.9 | Points against / game | 20.2 |
| 8-4 / 9-0 | Home / road | 7-3 / 6-2 |
| 14-7 | Against the spread | 12-6 |
| 12-9 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 10-8 |
| L W W W W | Last 5 | L W W W W |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| NE | JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| 1586 | Elo | 1564 |
| #6 of 32 | Rank | #7 of 32 |
| +2.0 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +4.1 |
| +4.2 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +2.6 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | — |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Efficiency
| NE | JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.075 | EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play, nflverse. The single best efficiency number. | 0.031 |
| -0.082 | EPA / play allowed | -0.079 |
| 252 | Pass yards / game | 235 |
| 127 | Rush yards / game | 117 |
| 201 | Pass yards allowed | 234 |
| 99 | Rush yards allowed | 85 |
| 0.9 / 1.4 | Turnovers / takeaways | 1.0 / 1.9 |
| 3.3 / 2.2 | Sacks allowed / made | 2.3 / 1.8 |
| 18.7 | First downs / game | 18.8 |
| 46 | Penalty yards / game | 61 |
| +7.0 · #5 of 52 | QB EPA / gameThe listed starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games. | +3.5 · #17 of 52 |
Efficiency is from the 2025 season until this one has games. Source: nflverse.
Head to head
| 2024 | NE 16 vs JAX 32 | JAX · JAX covered |
| 2021 | JAX 10 at NE 50 | NE · NE covered |
| 2018 | NE 20 at JAX 31 | JAX · JAX covered |
| 2017 | JAX 20 at NE 24 | NE · JAX covered |
| 2015 | JAX 17 at NE 51 | NE · NE covered |
| 2012 | NE 23 at JAX 16 | NE · JAX covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- NE +1.0 pts
- Home field
- JAX +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Quarterback
- Usual starters — no adjustment
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- JAX -1.5
- Total
- 45.5
- Moneyline
- NE -102 · JAX -118
| Book | JAX spread | Total | NE ML | JAX ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| betus | -1.5 (-115) | 45.5 (-110/-110) | — | — |
| draftkings | -1.5 (-115) | 45.5 (-110/-110) | — | -102 |
| williamhill_us | -1.5 (-115) | 46.5 (-115/-115) | — | +100 |
New England Patriots injuries
- Brenden Schooler SOut
- Harold Landry III LBOut
- Bryce Baringer PInjured Reserve
- Isaiah Iton DTInjured Reserve
- Khalil Jacobs LBInjured Reserve
- Marcus Bryant OTInjured Reserve
- Myles Montgomery RBInjured Reserve
- TreVeyon Henderson RBQuestionable
From ESPN's report. The model prices the quarterback; other absences are context it does not yet price.
Jacksonville Jaguars injuries
- Carter Bradley QBInjured Reserve
- Jared Bartlett LBInjured Reserve
- Parker Hughes LBInjured Reserve
- Patrick Mekari GInjured Reserve
- Sam Mustipher CInjured Reserve
- Zach Durfee DEInjured Reserve
- Bhayshul Tuten RBQuestionable
- Jakobi Meyers WRQuestionable
- LeQuint Allen Jr. RBQuestionable
- Wyatt Milum GQuestionable
From ESPN's report. The model prices the quarterback; other absences are context it does not yet price.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.