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New England (4-3) hosts Miami (1-5) at Gillette Stadium on Jan 10, 2027.
Lines post about a week before the game.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
MIA end zone ← 100 yards → NE end zone
A longer bar = a better setup for the offense: half from how high the offense ranks, half from how low the defense across from it ranks (of 32). A full bar is the best offense against the worst defense; the dashed tick is an even matchup. Biggest advantage first.
NE's defense has it in sacks.
NE has the clear advantage in passing, third-down conversion and sacks; MIA's defense has it in rushing.
MIA offensevs
NE defenseMIA offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups · NE defense in 4 (1 by a clear margin) · 1 even
NE offensevsMIA defenseNE offense ranks better in 3 of 6 matchups (3 by a clear margin) · MIA defense in 2 (1 by a clear margin) · 1 even
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
198 a game, league 227 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
NE pressures on 35% of dropbacks (#2 of 32); he completes 64% under pressure (league 34%).
88.7 a game, league 96.0 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
Mixed: few yards allowed, but leaky per play this season
121 a game, league 141 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
His routes (Screen 25%, Quick out 18%, Slant 10%): NE allowed 6.7 yds a target, league 7.0.
Same NE readings against WRs as above.
48.5 a game, league 54.0 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
His routes (Quick out 35%, Hitch / curl 17%, Screen 9%): NE allowed 6.8 yds a target, league 7.1.
231 a game, league 227 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
MIA pressures on 27% of dropbacks (#24 of 32); he completes 35% under pressure (league 34%).
96.2 a game, league 96.0 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
126 a game, league 141 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
Mixed: few yards allowed, but leaky per play this season
His routes (Screen 17%, Quick out 16%, Hitch / curl 11%): MIA allowed 7.7 yds a target, league 7.6.
Same MIA readings against WRs as above.
His routes (In / dig 15%, Slant 15%, Deep out 15%): MIA allowed 8.2 yds a target, league 8.0.
68.9 a game, league 54.0 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
Both readings soft
His routes (Quick out 20%, Hitch / curl 20%, Deep out 11%): MIA allowed 7.9 yds a target, league 7.7.
Players: this season's attempts, carries and targets (last season before a team's first game); anyone ruled out on the injury report is left off. Routes are where his targets came from over 2024–25, each route's yards shrunk toward the league's. Books already price these matchups.
NE is not among the softest third of defenses in any of these categories.
Rank 1 allows the most. Each defense's last 17 games from box scores (early in a season that reaches back into last season; each row shows how many of its games are from each season), against the average defense. Books already price matchups: this is where to look, not a bet.
Where a player's own strength meets something tonight's opponent gives up more than most, measured against the league. Matchups like these were tested as inputs for player props and added nothing the books' lines do not already reflect: research, not a pick.
Lines from regulated US sportsbooks; the fair chance is the books' own, with their margin taken out.
Miami Dolphins4 listedNew England Patriots6 listedTimes are when the report changed on our end, last 30 days.
The referee is posted closer to kickoff.
Book-by-book prices appear about a week before the game.
Not enough line history yet: the charts appear once the books have posted this game's numbers more than once.
Division rivals — they meet twice every season. NE have won the last 2.
Miami DolphinsNew England PatriotsLines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the score. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Sportsbook links may be affiliate links; we may earn a commission if you sign up through them.
The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 32 ranked teams, over each team's last 17 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Oct 2026; 6–7 in 2026, 10–11 in 2025). A longer bar = higher in the league (rank 1 = highest, even for points allowed). A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.