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New England (4-3) hosts Minnesota (6-0) at Gillette Stadium on Dec 10, 2026, 8:15 PM ET.
Lines post about a week before the game.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
MIN end zone ← 100 yards → NE end zone
A longer bar = a better setup for the offense: half from how high the offense ranks, half from how low the defense across from it ranks (of 32). A full bar is the best offense against the worst defense; the dashed tick is an even matchup. Biggest advantage first.
MIN has the clear advantage in turnovers; NE's defense has it in red-zone touchdown rate, third-down conversion and sacks.
MIN's defense has it in third-down conversion, sacks, red-zone touchdown rate, rushing and turnovers.
MIN offensevs
NE defenseMIN offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · NE defense in 5 (3 by a clear margin)
NE offensevsMIN defenseNE offense ranks better in 0 of 6 matchups · MIN defense in 6 (5 by a clear margin)
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
198 a game, league 227 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
NE pressures on 35% of dropbacks (#2 of 32); he completes 31% under pressure (league 34%).
88.7 a game, league 96.0 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
Mixed: few yards allowed, but leaky per play this season
121 a game, league 141 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
His routes (Deep out 16%, Hitch / curl 15%, In / dig 15%): NE allowed 7.7 yds a target, league 8.1.
Same NE readings against WRs as above.
His routes (Deep out 23%, Hitch / curl 15%, Go 13%): NE allowed 7.9 yds a target, league 8.2.
48.5 a game, league 54.0 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
His routes (Hitch / curl 29%, Quick out 21%, Post 9%): NE allowed 7.4 yds a target, league 7.6.
171 a game, league 227 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
Both readings tough
MIN pressures on 33% of dropbacks (#6 of 32); he completes 35% under pressure (league 34%).
98.6 a game, league 96.0 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
113 a game, league 141 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
Both readings tough
His routes (Screen 17%, Quick out 16%, Hitch / curl 11%): MIN allowed 7.5 yds a target, league 7.6.
Same MIN readings against WRs as above.
His routes (In / dig 15%, Slant 15%, Deep out 15%): MIN allowed 8.1 yds a target, league 8.0.
40.6 a game, league 54.0 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
Both readings tough
His routes (Quick out 20%, Hitch / curl 20%, Deep out 11%): MIN allowed 7.8 yds a target, league 7.7.
Players: this season's attempts, carries and targets (last season before a team's first game); anyone ruled out on the injury report is left off. Routes are where his targets came from over 2024–25, each route's yards shrunk toward the league's. Books already price these matchups.
NE is not among the softest third of defenses in any of these categories.
Rank 1 allows the most. Each defense's last 17 games from box scores (early in a season that reaches back into last season; each row shows how many of its games are from each season), against the average defense. Books already price matchups: this is where to look, not a bet.
Where a player's own strength meets something tonight's opponent gives up more than most, measured against the league. Matchups like these were tested as inputs for player props and added nothing the books' lines do not already reflect: research, not a pick.
Lines from regulated US sportsbooks; the fair chance is the books' own, with their margin taken out.
Minnesota Vikings2 listedNew England Patriots6 listedTimes are when the report changed on our end, last 30 days.
The referee is posted closer to kickoff.
Book-by-book prices appear about a week before the game.
Not enough line history yet: the charts appear once the books have posted this game's numbers more than once.
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (3 of the 15 seasons in our history).
Minnesota VikingsNew England PatriotsLines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the score. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Sportsbook links may be affiliate links; we may earn a commission if you sign up through them.
The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 32 ranked teams, over each team's last 17 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Oct 2026; 6–7 in 2026, 10–11 in 2025). A longer bar = higher in the league (rank 1 = highest, even for points allowed). A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.