← NFL slate
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks
Wed, Sep 9, 8:20 PM ET · Lumen Field · 76° · Mostly sunny
SEA -3.5 · O/U 44.5
NE +150 · SEA -180
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
SEA -180
67%
model margin SEA by 6.0
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean
SEA -3.5
51%
2.5 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 44.5
51%
model total 41.2
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 1594 | 2.0 | 4.2 | — | 0 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 1669 | 4.9 | 6.5 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- SEA +75 Elo
- Home field
- SEA +2.5 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- SEA by 6.0
- Market spread
- SEA -3.5
- Model total
- 41.2 vs 44.5
- Moneyline
- NE +150 · SEA -180
New England Patriots injuries
- Brenden Schooler SOut
- Harold Landry III LBOut
- Bryce Baringer PInjured Reserve
- Isaiah Iton DTInjured Reserve
- Khalil Jacobs LBInjured Reserve
- Marcus Bryant OTInjured Reserve
- Myles Montgomery RBInjured Reserve
- TreVeyon Henderson RBQuestionable
From ESPN's report. Shown for context — the model does not yet price individual absences, which is the known gap between it and the market.
Seattle Seahawks injuries
- Terrion Arnold CBOut
- Zach Charbonnet RBOut
- Aaron Smith LBInjured Reserve
- Bud Clark SInjured Reserve
- Irv Charles WRInjured Reserve
- Jake Bobo WRInjured Reserve
- Mason Richman GInjured Reserve
- Power Echols LBInjured Reserve
- Robbie Ouzts FBInjured Reserve
- Emanuel Wilson RBQuestionable
- Nick Emmanwori SQuestionable
- Tory Horton WRQuestionable
From ESPN's report. Shown for context — the model does not yet price individual absences, which is the known gap between it and the market.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.