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Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · Lucas Oil Stadium · Indoors
BAL -3.5 · O/U 48.5
BAL -175 · IND +145
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
BAL -175
52%
model margin BAL by 0.8
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean
IND +3.5
51%
2.7 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Over 48.5
51%
model total 51.4
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 1540 | 1.6 | 0.8 | — | 0 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 1466 | 2.5 | -2.6 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- BAL +74 Elo
- Home field
- IND +2.5 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- Indoors
- Model margin
- BAL by 0.8
- Market spread
- BAL -3.5
- Model total
- 51.4 vs 48.5
- Moneyline
- BAL -175 · IND +145
Baltimore Ravens injuries
- Adam Randall RBInjured Reserve
- Bilhal Kone CBInjured Reserve
- Danny Pinter CInjured Reserve
- Jahquez Robinson SInjured Reserve
- Skylar Thompson QBInjured Reserve
- Aeneas Peebles DTQuestionable
- Jay Higgins IV LBQuestionable
- Nnamdi Madubuike DTQuestionable
- Zay Flowers WRQuestionable
From ESPN's report. Shown for context — the model does not yet price individual absences, which is the known gap between it and the market.
Indianapolis Colts injuries
- Cameron Mitchell CBInjured Reserve
- Carson Towt TEInjured Reserve
- Coleman Owen WRInjured Reserve
- D.J. Montgomery WRInjured Reserve
- Will Mallory TEInjured Reserve
- A.J. Haulcy SQuestionable
- Charvarius Ward CBQuestionable
- Josh Downs WRQuestionable
- Sean McKeon TEQuestionable
- Tyler Warren TEQuestionable
From ESPN's report. Shown for context — the model does not yet price individual absences, which is the known gap between it and the market.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.