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Cleveland (5-2) hosts Indianapolis (2-5) at Huntington Bank Field on Jan 3, 2027, 1:00 PM ET.
Lines post about a week before the game.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
IND end zone ← 100 yards → CLE end zone
A longer bar = a better setup for the offense: half from how high the offense ranks, half from how low the defense across from it ranks (of 32). A full bar is the best offense against the worst defense; the dashed tick is an even matchup. Biggest advantage first.
IND has the clear advantage in rushing; CLE's defense has it in red-zone touchdown rate, turnovers, sacks and passing.
CLE has the clear advantage in turnovers; IND's defense has it in red-zone touchdown rate, sacks and third-down conversion.
IND offensevs
CLE defenseIND offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · CLE defense in 5 (4 by a clear margin)
CLE offensevsIND defenseCLE offense ranks better in 2 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · IND defense in 3 (3 by a clear margin) · 1 even
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
201 a game, league 227 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
Both readings tough
CLE pressures on 34% of dropbacks (#3 of 32); he completes 43% under pressure (league 34%).
112 a game, league 96.0 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
120 a game, league 141 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
Both readings tough
His routes (Quick out 26%, Hitch / curl 20%, Deep out 9%): CLE allowed 7.3 yds a target, league 7.2.
Same CLE readings against WRs as above.
His routes (Hitch / curl 25%, Quick out 20%, In / dig 10%): CLE allowed 7.6 yds a target, league 7.6.
53.2 a game, league 54.0 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
His routes (Quick out 28%, Hitch / curl 18%, Corner 12%): CLE allowed 7.5 yds a target, league 7.4.
244 a game, league 227 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
IND pressures on 28% of dropbacks (#22 of 32).
97.2 a game, league 96.0 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
155 a game, league 141 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
Same IND readings against WRs as above.
58.8 a game, league 54.0 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
His routes (Hitch / curl 27%, Quick out 17%, In / dig 15%): IND allowed 7.9 yds a target, league 7.5.
Players: this season's attempts, carries and targets (last season before a team's first game); anyone ruled out on the injury report is left off. Routes are where his targets came from over 2024–25, each route's yards shrunk toward the league's. Books already price these matchups.
Rank 1 allows the most. Each defense's last 17 games from box scores (early in a season that reaches back into last season; each row shows how many of its games are from each season), against the average defense. Books already price matchups: this is where to look, not a bet.
Where a player's own strength meets something tonight's opponent gives up more than most, measured against the league. Matchups like these were tested as inputs for player props and added nothing the books' lines do not already reflect: research, not a pick.
Lines from regulated US sportsbooks; the fair chance is the books' own, with their margin taken out.
Indianapolis Colts7 listedCleveland Browns4 listedTimes are when the report changed on our end, last 30 days.
The referee is posted closer to kickoff.
Book-by-book prices appear about a week before the game.
Not enough line history yet: the charts appear once the books have posted this game's numbers more than once.
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (5 of the 15 seasons in our history). CLE have won the last 2.
Indianapolis ColtsCleveland BrownsLines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the score. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Sportsbook links may be affiliate links; we may earn a commission if you sign up through them.
The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 32 ranked teams, over each team's last 17 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Oct 2026; 7 in 2026, 10 in 2025). A longer bar = higher in the league (rank 1 = highest, even for points allowed). A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.