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Houston Texans
13-6 last yr · #5 Elo
at
Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indoors
Indianapolis Colts
8-9 last yr · #22 Elo
Spread HOU -1.5Total 45.5Moneyline HOU -125 · IND +105
The read
On rating alone Houston Texans are 6.0 points better (#5 vs #22 of 32), and IND add 0.0 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the rushing game: IND rushing ranks #2, HOU defends it at #2; the other way HOU #30 into IND's #8.
Who has the edge
Rating
Clear edge
HOU
HOU rated 6.0 points better on Elo (#22 vs #5).
Home & rest
Even
—
IND gets 0.0 points for home field.
Quarterback
not priced
—
Usual starters on both sides — Daniel Jones and C.J. Stroud — no adjustment.
Passing game
Slight edge
HOU
HOU passing ranks #18, IND defends it at #18; the other way IND #11 into HOU's #1.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Clear edge
IND
IND rushing ranks #2, HOU defends it at #2; the other way HOU #30 into IND's #8.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
IND
HOU third-down conversion ranks #18, IND defends it at #25; the other way IND #7 into HOU's #2.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
HOU
IND −10.8 per game over the last five, HOU +5.2.
context · not in the margin
Market
Slight edge
HOU
Consensus has HOU by 1.5.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Houston TexansIndianapolis Colts
1596 Elo · #5
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
HOU +6.0 pts
1464 Elo · #22
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
Stroud · +2.5 EPA/g
QuarterbackStarter's value against what the team usually gets at quarterback. Only moves when someone other than the usual starter plays.
even
Jones · +6.9 EPA/g
+4.3 pts vs IND D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
HOU +4.7 pts
−0.4 pts vs HOU D
L W W W W · +5.2
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
HOU +8.0 pts
L L L L L · −10.8
11 out/IR
InjuriesCount of players listed Out or on IR. Not priced beyond the quarterback.
not priced
5 out/IR
HOU -1.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
HOU +1.5 pts
IND +1.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
nflverse play-by-play + FTN charting · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸IND defense (#5 yards / rush allowed) against a HOU offense ranked #28
- ▸IND defense (#8 epa / rush allowed) against a HOU offense ranked #30
- ▸IND defense (#10 red-zone touchdown rate allowed) against a HOU offense ranked #29
- ▸HOU defense (#3 interceptions forced) against a IND offense ranked #22
- ▸HOU defense (#2 takeaways / game) against a IND offense ranked #21
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Houston Texans offense vs Indianapolis Colts defense
ranks of 32| HOU off | IND def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate facedDropbacks as a share of plays. On the defense column: what opponents do against them. | 60% | 63% | · |
| Early-down pass rateFirst and second down only — the cleanest read on run-heavy vs pass-heavy. | 55% | 60% | · |
| Neutral-script pass rateEarly downs with win probability between 20% and 80%: intent, not catch-up mode. | 57% | 57% | · |
| Pass rate over expectedHow much more (or less) a team passes than the down, distance, score and clock predict. nflverse xpass. | −1.0% | +0.0% | · |
| Seconds per playTime of possession divided by plays — lower is faster. | 29.7 | 28.8 | · |
| No-huddle | 4% | 9% | · |
| Shotgun | 62% | 68% | · |
| Play-action rate / Play-action facedShare of dropbacks with a play fake (FTN charting). | 22% | 22% | · |
| RPO rate / RPOs faced | 2% | 6% | · |
| Screen rate / Screens faced | 5% | 6% | · |
| Pre-snap motion / Motion faced | 55% | 52% | · |
| Blitzes faced / Blitz rateFive or more pass rushers (FTN). On the offense column: how often opponents blitz them. | 31% | 28% | · |
| Pass rushers faced / Avg pass rushers | 4.38 | 4.32 | · |
| Passing | |||
| EPA / dropbackThe single best pass-efficiency number; on the defense column, what they allow. | +0.03#18▼ | +0.06#18▲ | · |
| Pass success rate | 44%#22 | 47%#21 | · |
| Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. | 7.4%#20 | 8.2%#18▲ | · |
| Yards / dropback | 6.0#18 | 6.4#20 | · |
| Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at. | 8.3 | 7.9 | · |
| Deep-ball rate (20+ air) | 11% | 12% | · |
| Short throws (≤5 air) | 50% | 50% | · |
| Completion % over expectednflverse CPOE, per attempt. Defense column: what they allow. | −2.8#26▼ | −0.4#12▲ | IND |
| YAC / completion | 4.5#29 | 4.9#13 | IND |
| Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create. | 5.1%#9 | 5.6%#24▼ | HOU |
| Scramble rate | 4.8% | 4.3% | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 2.1%#18▲ | 2.3%#16 | · |
| Throws left / middle / rightDirection shares are shown in full on the row. | L 38 · M 19 · R 44 | L 34 · M 21 · R 45 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| EPA / rush | −0.11#30▲ | −0.09#8▲ | IND |
| Rush success rate | 37%#29 | 42%#19 | IND |
| Explosive rush rateRushes of 10+ yards. | 7.5%#30▼ | 9.1%#12 | IND |
| Yards / rush | 3.8#28 | 3.8#5 | IND |
| Runs left / middle / right | L 32 · M 28 · R 40 | L 34 · M 30 · R 36 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Third-down conversion | 39%#18 | 43%#25 | HOU |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 46%#29 | 54%#10 | IND |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.00#12▲ | 1.24#10 | · |
| Plays / game | 64 | 65 | · |
Indianapolis Colts offense vs Houston Texans defense
ranks of 32| IND off | HOU def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate facedDropbacks as a share of plays. On the defense column: what opponents do against them. | 60% | 63% | · |
| Early-down pass rateFirst and second down only — the cleanest read on run-heavy vs pass-heavy. | 56% | 56% | · |
| Neutral-script pass rateEarly downs with win probability between 20% and 80%: intent, not catch-up mode. | 56% | 53% | · |
| Pass rate over expectedHow much more (or less) a team passes than the down, distance, score and clock predict. nflverse xpass. | −0.9% | −2.7% | · |
| Seconds per playTime of possession divided by plays — lower is faster. | 30.1 | 29.4 | · |
| No-huddle | 5% | 7% | · |
| Shotgun | 72% | 66% | · |
| Play-action rate / Play-action facedShare of dropbacks with a play fake (FTN charting). | 28% | 22% | · |
| RPO rate / RPOs faced | 9% | 6% | · |
| Screen rate / Screens faced | 5% | 9% | · |
| Pre-snap motion / Motion faced | 53% | 56% | · |
| Blitzes faced / Blitz rateFive or more pass rushers (FTN). On the offense column: how often opponents blitz them. | 30% | 22% | · |
| Pass rushers faced / Avg pass rushers | 4.35 | 4.25 | · |
| Passing | |||
| EPA / dropbackThe single best pass-efficiency number; on the defense column, what they allow. | +0.08#11▼ | −0.16#1▼ | HOU |
| Pass success rate | 47%#10 | 38%#1 | HOU |
| Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. | 7.3%#21▼ | 8.1%#17 | · |
| Yards / dropback | 6.8#9 | 5.4#2 | HOU |
| Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at. | 8.0 | 8.2 | · |
| Deep-ball rate (20+ air) | 10% | 13% | · |
| Short throws (≤5 air) | 54% | 52% | · |
| Completion % over expectednflverse CPOE, per attempt. Defense column: what they allow. | +0.6#17▼ | −4.7#3▲ | HOU |
| YAC / completion | 5.0#17 | 5.0#15 | · |
| Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create. | 4.8%#7 | 8.1%#5 | · |
| Scramble rate | 4.2% | 5.2% | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 2.6%#22▲ | 3.5%#3 | HOU |
| Throws left / middle / rightDirection shares are shown in full on the row. | L 41 · M 20 · R 38 | L 40 · M 23 · R 37 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| EPA / rush | +0.06#2▼ | −0.16#2▼ | · |
| Rush success rate | 45%#5 | 37%#4 | · |
| Explosive rush rateRushes of 10+ yards. | 10.1%#13▼ | 5.9%#2 | HOU |
| Yards / rush | 4.6#8▼ | 3.5#2 | HOU |
| Runs left / middle / right | L 26 · M 43 · R 32 | L 32 · M 33 · R 35 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Third-down conversion | 43%#7 | 34%#2 | · |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 65%#6 | 55%#13 | IND |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.24#21▲ | 1.68#2▲ | HOU |
| Plays / game | 59 | 58 | · |
Route-by-route data (which routes are run and how coverage plays them) is not published anywhere public — it is sold by PFF and NGS. Throw depth, direction, play-action, RPO, screens, motion and pass-rush counts above are the public pieces of the same picture.
Houston Texans · key players
- C.J. Stroud QB19.6/31.4 · 219 yds/g · 21-13 TD-INT · +0.05 EPA/db
- Nico Collins WR7.9 tgt/g · 24% share · 71 yds/g · 6 TD · aDOT 12.5
- Dalton Schultz TE5.9 tgt/g · 18% share · 44 yds/g · 3 TD · aDOT 6.1
- Jayden Higgins WR4.3 tgt/g · 13% share · 33 yds/g · 6 TD · aDOT 12.5
- Xavier Hutchinson WR4.1 tgt/g · 12% share · 27 yds/g · 3 TD · aDOT 10.0
- Woody Marks RB12.7 car/g · 46 yds/g · 3.6 ypc · 3 TD · −0.15 EPA/car
- Nick Chubb RB8.0 car/g · 33 yds/g · 4.2 ypc · 3 TD · −0.06 EPA/car
2025 season, per game. Targets ranked by volume, rushers by carries.nflverse weekly player stats. Target share is the player's average share of his team's targets in the games he played. A player who changed teams carries his own games from last season.
Indianapolis Colts · key players
- Daniel Jones QB20.1/29.5 · 239 yds/g · 19-8 TD-INT · +0.16 EPA/db
- Tyler Warren TEQuestionable6.6 tgt/g · 21% share · 48 yds/g · 4 TD · aDOT 5.4
- Michael Pittman WR6.5 tgt/g · 21% share · 46 yds/g · 7 TD · aDOT 8.2
- Josh Downs WRQuestionable5.5 tgt/g · 17% share · 35 yds/g · 4 TD · aDOT 7.5
- Alec Pierce WR5.6 tgt/g · 18% share · 67 yds/g · 6 TD · aDOT 19.0
- Jonathan Taylor RB19.0 car/g · 93 yds/g · 4.9 ypc · 18 TD · +0.06 EPA/car
- DJ Giddens RB5.2 car/g · 19 yds/g · 3.7 ypc · 0 TD · +0.00 EPA/car
2025 season, per game. Targets ranked by volume, rushers by carries.nflverse weekly player stats. Target share is the player's average share of his team's targets in the games he played. A player who changed teams carries his own games from last season.
Season
| HOU | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 13-6 | Record | 8-9 |
| 23.7 | Points for / game | 27.4 |
| 17.3 | Points against / game | 24.2 |
| 7-2 / 6-4 | Home / road | 6-3 / 2-6 |
| 10-9 | Against the spread | 9-8 |
| 7-12 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 9-8 |
| L W W W W | Last 5 | L L L L L |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| HOU | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 1596 | Elo | 1464 |
| #5 of 32 | Rank | #22 of 32 |
| +1.8 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +2.5 |
| +2.8 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | −2.6 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | — |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Efficiency
| HOU | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| -0.031 | EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play, nflverse. The single best efficiency number. | 0.080 |
| -0.144 | EPA / play allowed | 0.007 |
| 233 | Pass yards / game | 240 |
| 109 | Rush yards / game | 118 |
| 201 | Pass yards allowed | 262 |
| 93 | Rush yards allowed | 102 |
| 0.9 / 2.2 | Turnovers / takeaways | 0.9 / 1.4 |
| 1.9 / 2.9 | Sacks allowed / made | 1.7 / 2.3 |
| 16.6 | First downs / game | 18.9 |
| 56 | Penalty yards / game | 51 |
| +2.5 · #20 of 52 | QB EPA / gameThe listed starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games. | +6.9 · #6 of 52 |
Efficiency is from the 2025 season until this one has games. Source: nflverse.
Head to head
| 2025 | IND 30 at HOU 38 | HOU · IND covered |
| 2025 | HOU 20 at IND 16 | HOU · HOU covered |
| 2024 | IND 20 at HOU 23 | HOU · IND covered |
| 2024 | HOU 29 at IND 27 | HOU · IND covered |
| 2023 | HOU 23 at IND 19 | HOU · HOU covered |
| 2023 | IND 31 at HOU 20 | IND · IND covered |
| 2022 | HOU 32 at IND 31 | HOU · HOU covered |
| 2022 | IND 20 at HOU 20 | Tie · HOU covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- HOU +6.0 pts
- Home field
- IND +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Quarterback
- Usual starters — no adjustment
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- HOU -1.5
- Total
- 45.5
- Moneyline
- HOU -125 · IND +105
| Book | IND spread | Total | HOU ML | IND ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| betus | -1.5 (-105) | 45.5 (-110/-110) | — | — |
| draftkings | -2.5 (-115) | 45.5 (-110/-110) | — | +110 |
| williamhill_us | -1 (-115) | 43.5 (-115/-115) | — | -110 |
Houston Texans injuries
- E.J. Speed LBOut
- M.J. Stewart SOut
- Ali Gaye DEInjured Reserve
- Braden Smith OTInjured Reserve
- Dylan Horton DEInjured Reserve
- Ja'Marcus Ingram CBInjured Reserve
- K.C. Ossai LBInjured Reserve
- Kyonte Hamilton DTInjured Reserve
- Sam Hagen GInjured Reserve
- Solomon Byrd DEInjured Reserve
- Tank Dell WRInjured Reserve
- Brevin Jordan TEQuestionable
From ESPN's report. The model prices the quarterback; other absences are context it does not yet price.
Indianapolis Colts injuries
- Cameron Mitchell CBInjured Reserve
- Carson Towt TEInjured Reserve
- Coleman Owen WRInjured Reserve
- D.J. Montgomery WRInjured Reserve
- Will Mallory TEInjured Reserve
- A.J. Haulcy SQuestionable
- Charvarius Ward CBQuestionable
- Josh Downs WRQuestionable
- Sean McKeon TEQuestionable
- Tyler Warren TEQuestionable
From ESPN's report. The model prices the quarterback; other absences are context it does not yet price.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.