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Indianapolis Colts
8-9 last yr · #22 Elo
at
Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET
Acrisure Stadium
Pittsburgh Steelers
10-8 last yr · #16 Elo
Spread PIT -2.5Total 47.5Moneyline IND +120 · PIT -142
The read
On rating alone Pittsburgh Steelers are 2.1 points better (#16 vs #22 of 32), and PIT add 0.0 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the rushing game: IND rushing ranks #2, PIT defends it at #26; the other way PIT #7 into IND's #8.
Who has the edge
Rating
Slight edge
PIT
PIT rated 2.1 points better on Elo (#16 vs #22).
Home & rest
Even
—
PIT gets 0.0 points for home field.
Quarterback
not priced
—
Usual starters on both sides — Aaron Rodgers and Daniel Jones — no adjustment.
Passing game
Slight edge
IND
IND passing ranks #11, PIT defends it at #16; the other way PIT #22 into IND's #18.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Clear edge
IND
IND rushing ranks #2, PIT defends it at #26; the other way PIT #7 into IND's #8.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
IND
IND third-down conversion ranks #7, PIT defends it at #26; the other way PIT #20 into IND's #25.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
PIT
PIT −2.2 per game over the last five, IND −10.8.
context · not in the margin
Market
Slight edge
PIT
Consensus has PIT by 2.5.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Indianapolis ColtsPittsburgh Steelers
1464 Elo · #22
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
PIT +2.1 pts
1509 Elo · #16
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
Jones · +6.9 EPA/g
QuarterbackStarter's value against what the team usually gets at quarterback. Only moves when someone other than the usual starter plays.
even
Rodgers · −0.1 EPA/g
+1.9 pts vs PIT D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
IND +1.0 pts
+0.9 pts vs IND D
L L L L L · −10.8
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
PIT +4.3 pts
L W L W W · −2.2
5 out/IR
InjuriesCount of players listed Out or on IR. Not priced beyond the quarterback.
not priced
4 out/IR
IND +2.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
PIT +2.5 pts
PIT -2.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
nflverse play-by-play + FTN charting · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸IND epa / rush (#2) against a PIT defense ranked #26 at stopping it
- ▸IND third-down conversion (#7) against a PIT defense ranked #26 at stopping it
- ▸PIT defense (#5 takeaways / game) against a IND offense ranked #21
- ▸PIT rush success rate (#6) against a IND defense ranked #19 at stopping it
- ▸PIT defense (#10 interceptions forced) against a IND offense ranked #22
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Indianapolis Colts offense vs Pittsburgh Steelers defense
ranks of 32| IND off | PIT def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate facedDropbacks as a share of plays. On the defense column: what opponents do against them. | 60% | 62% | · |
| Early-down pass rateFirst and second down only — the cleanest read on run-heavy vs pass-heavy. | 56% | 58% | · |
| Neutral-script pass rateEarly downs with win probability between 20% and 80%: intent, not catch-up mode. | 56% | 54% | · |
| Pass rate over expectedHow much more (or less) a team passes than the down, distance, score and clock predict. nflverse xpass. | −0.9% | −2.4% | · |
| Seconds per playTime of possession divided by plays — lower is faster. | 30.1 | 29.3 | · |
| No-huddle | 5% | 6% | · |
| Shotgun | 72% | 66% | · |
| Play-action rate / Play-action facedShare of dropbacks with a play fake (FTN charting). | 28% | 21% | · |
| RPO rate / RPOs faced | 9% | 4% | · |
| Screen rate / Screens faced | 5% | 6% | · |
| Pre-snap motion / Motion faced | 53% | 58% | · |
| Blitzes faced / Blitz rateFive or more pass rushers (FTN). On the offense column: how often opponents blitz them. | 30% | 31% | · |
| Pass rushers faced / Avg pass rushers | 4.35 | 4.43 | · |
| Passing | |||
| EPA / dropbackThe single best pass-efficiency number; on the defense column, what they allow. | +0.08#11▼ | +0.04#16 | · |
| Pass success rate | 47%#10 | 45%#16 | IND |
| Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. | 7.3%#21▼ | 7.8%#13▲ | PIT |
| Yards / dropback | 6.8#9 | 6.4#19▲ | IND |
| Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at. | 8.0 | 7.0 | · |
| Deep-ball rate (20+ air) | 10% | 8% | · |
| Short throws (≤5 air) | 54% | 55% | · |
| Completion % over expectednflverse CPOE, per attempt. Defense column: what they allow. | +0.6#17▼ | −0.3#13▲ | · |
| YAC / completion | 5.0#17 | 5.1#18 | · |
| Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create. | 4.8%#7 | 7.1%#9▲ | · |
| Scramble rate | 4.2% | 3.8% | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 2.6%#22▲ | 2.5%#10▲ | PIT |
| Throws left / middle / rightDirection shares are shown in full on the row. | L 41 · M 20 · R 38 | L 37 · M 30 · R 33 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| EPA / rush | +0.06#2▼ | −0.01#26▼ | IND |
| Rush success rate | 45%#5 | 41%#15 | IND |
| Explosive rush rateRushes of 10+ yards. | 10.1%#13▼ | 9.9%#19 | IND |
| Yards / rush | 4.6#8▼ | 4.3#19 | IND |
| Runs left / middle / right | L 26 · M 43 · R 32 | L 41 · M 26 · R 33 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Third-down conversion | 43%#7 | 43%#26 | IND |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 65%#6 | 52%#5 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.24#21▲ | 1.56#5▲ | PIT |
| Plays / game | 59 | 65 | · |
Pittsburgh Steelers offense vs Indianapolis Colts defense
ranks of 32| PIT off | IND def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate facedDropbacks as a share of plays. On the defense column: what opponents do against them. | 61% | 63% | · |
| Early-down pass rateFirst and second down only — the cleanest read on run-heavy vs pass-heavy. | 55% | 60% | · |
| Neutral-script pass rateEarly downs with win probability between 20% and 80%: intent, not catch-up mode. | 55% | 57% | · |
| Pass rate over expectedHow much more (or less) a team passes than the down, distance, score and clock predict. nflverse xpass. | −0.8% | +0.0% | · |
| Seconds per playTime of possession divided by plays — lower is faster. | 29.6 | 28.8 | · |
| No-huddle | 12% | 9% | · |
| Shotgun | 67% | 68% | · |
| Play-action rate / Play-action facedShare of dropbacks with a play fake (FTN charting). | 19% | 22% | · |
| RPO rate / RPOs faced | 9% | 6% | · |
| Screen rate / Screens faced | 14% | 6% | · |
| Pre-snap motion / Motion faced | 55% | 52% | · |
| Blitzes faced / Blitz rateFive or more pass rushers (FTN). On the offense column: how often opponents blitz them. | 20% | 28% | · |
| Pass rushers faced / Avg pass rushers | 4.21 | 4.32 | · |
| Passing | |||
| EPA / dropbackThe single best pass-efficiency number; on the defense column, what they allow. | −0.01#22▼ | +0.06#18▲ | · |
| Pass success rate | 42%#27 | 47%#21 | IND |
| Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. | 7.0%#25 | 8.2%#18▲ | IND |
| Yards / dropback | 5.8#25 | 6.4#20 | · |
| Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at. | 6.2 | 7.9 | · |
| Deep-ball rate (20+ air) | 10% | 12% | · |
| Short throws (≤5 air) | 60% | 50% | · |
| Completion % over expectednflverse CPOE, per attempt. Defense column: what they allow. | +0.2#19▼ | −0.4#12▲ | IND |
| YAC / completion | 6.4#1 | 4.9#13 | PIT |
| Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create. | 5.6%#12 | 5.6%#24▼ | PIT |
| Scramble rate | 2.1% | 4.3% | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.7%#8▼ | 2.3%#16 | PIT |
| Throws left / middle / rightDirection shares are shown in full on the row. | L 39 · M 20 · R 41 | L 34 · M 21 · R 45 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| EPA / rush | −0.00#7▼ | −0.09#8▲ | · |
| Rush success rate | 44%#6 | 42%#19 | PIT |
| Explosive rush rateRushes of 10+ yards. | 11.3%#9 | 9.1%#12 | · |
| Yards / rush | 4.4#12 | 3.8#5 | IND |
| Runs left / middle / right | L 39 · M 23 · R 38 | L 34 · M 30 · R 36 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Third-down conversion | 39%#20 | 43%#25 | · |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 57%#18▼ | 54%#10 | IND |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 0.89#7▼ | 1.24#10 | · |
| Plays / game | 57 | 65 | · |
Route-by-route data (which routes are run and how coverage plays them) is not published anywhere public — it is sold by PFF and NGS. Throw depth, direction, play-action, RPO, screens, motion and pass-rush counts above are the public pieces of the same picture.
Indianapolis Colts · key players
- Daniel Jones QB20.1/29.5 · 239 yds/g · 19-8 TD-INT · +0.16 EPA/db
- Tyler Warren TEQuestionable6.6 tgt/g · 21% share · 48 yds/g · 4 TD · aDOT 5.4
- Michael Pittman WR6.5 tgt/g · 21% share · 46 yds/g · 7 TD · aDOT 8.2
- Josh Downs WRQuestionable5.5 tgt/g · 17% share · 35 yds/g · 4 TD · aDOT 7.5
- Alec Pierce WR5.6 tgt/g · 18% share · 67 yds/g · 6 TD · aDOT 19.0
- Jonathan Taylor RB19.0 car/g · 93 yds/g · 4.9 ypc · 18 TD · +0.06 EPA/car
- DJ Giddens RB5.2 car/g · 19 yds/g · 3.7 ypc · 0 TD · +0.00 EPA/car
2025 season, per game. Targets ranked by volume, rushers by carries.nflverse weekly player stats. Target share is the player's average share of his team's targets in the games he played. A player who changed teams carries his own games from last season.
Pittsburgh Steelers · key players
- Aaron Rodgers QB20.2/31.2 · 204 yds/g · 24-8 TD-INT · +0.00 EPA/db
- DK Metcalf WRQuestionable6.5 tgt/g · 22% share · 56 yds/g · 6 TD · aDOT 10.6
- Calvin Austin III WR4.1 tgt/g · 14% share · 25 yds/g · 3 TD · aDOT 11.7
- Pat Freiermuth TE3.6 tgt/g · 11% share · 32 yds/g · 4 TD · aDOT 6.8
- Jonnu Smith TE3.2 tgt/g · 11% share · 12 yds/g · 2 TD · aDOT 4.3
- Jaylen Warren RB13.1 car/g · 59 yds/g · 4.5 ypc · 6 TD · −0.02 EPA/car
- Kenny Gainwell RB6.7 car/g · 31 yds/g · 4.6 ypc · 5 TD · −0.02 EPA/car
2025 season, per game. Targets ranked by volume, rushers by carries.nflverse weekly player stats. Target share is the player's average share of his team's targets in the games he played. A player who changed teams carries his own games from last season.
Season
| IND | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| 8-9 | Record | 10-8 |
| 27.4 | Points for / game | 22.4 |
| 24.2 | Points against / game | 23.2 |
| 6-3 / 2-6 | Home / road | 6-4 / 4-4 |
| 9-8 | Against the spread | 9-8-1 |
| 9-8 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 10-8 |
| L L L L L | Last 5 | L W L W W |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| IND | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| 1464 | Elo | 1509 |
| #22 of 32 | Rank | #16 of 32 |
| +2.5 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −1.6 |
| −2.6 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +0.6 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | — |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Efficiency
| IND | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.080 | EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play, nflverse. The single best efficiency number. | 0.004 |
| 0.007 | EPA / play allowed | 0.023 |
| 240 | Pass yards / game | 210 |
| 118 | Rush yards / game | 101 |
| 262 | Pass yards allowed | 260 |
| 102 | Rush yards allowed | 116 |
| 0.9 / 1.4 | Turnovers / takeaways | 0.7 / 1.9 |
| 1.7 / 2.3 | Sacks allowed / made | 1.9 / 2.8 |
| 18.9 | First downs / game | 15.6 |
| 51 | Penalty yards / game | 46 |
| +6.9 · #6 of 52 | QB EPA / gameThe listed starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games. | −0.1 · #31 of 52 |
Efficiency is from the 2025 season until this one has games. Source: nflverse.
Head to head
| 2025 | IND 20 at PIT 27 | PIT · PIT covered |
| 2024 | PIT 24 at IND 27 | IND · IND covered |
| 2023 | PIT 13 at IND 30 | IND · IND covered |
| 2022 | PIT 24 at IND 17 | PIT · PIT covered |
| 2020 | IND 24 at PIT 28 | PIT · PIT covered |
| 2019 | IND 24 at PIT 26 | PIT · PIT covered |
| 2017 | PIT 20 at IND 17 | PIT · IND covered |
| 2016 | PIT 28 at IND 7 | PIT · PIT covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- PIT +2.1 pts
- Home field
- PIT +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Quarterback
- Usual starters — no adjustment
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- PIT -2.5
- Total
- 47.5
- Moneyline
- IND +120 · PIT -142
| Book | PIT spread | Total | IND ML | PIT ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| betus | +2.5 (-110) | 47.5 (-110/-110) | — | — |
| draftkings | +2.5 (-110) | 47.5 (-110/-110) | — | -142 |
| williamhill_us | +2 (-115) | 46.5 (-115/-115) | — | -131 |
Indianapolis Colts injuries
- Cameron Mitchell CBInjured Reserve
- Carson Towt TEInjured Reserve
- Coleman Owen WRInjured Reserve
- D.J. Montgomery WRInjured Reserve
- Will Mallory TEInjured Reserve
- A.J. Haulcy SQuestionable
- Charvarius Ward CBQuestionable
- Josh Downs WRQuestionable
- Sean McKeon TEQuestionable
- Tyler Warren TEQuestionable
From ESPN's report. The model prices the quarterback; other absences are context it does not yet price.
Pittsburgh Steelers injuries
- Donte Kent CBOut
- DeShon Elliott SInjured Reserve
- Jack Driscoll OTInjured Reserve
- Logan Lee DTInjured Reserve
- Ben Skowronek WRQuestionable
- DK Metcalf WRQuestionable
- Jalen Ramsey CBQuestionable
- Jaquan Brisker SQuestionable
- Michael Pittman Jr. WRQuestionable
From ESPN's report. The model prices the quarterback; other absences are context it does not yet price.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.