Loading the game…
Indianapolis (2-5) hosts Dallas (3-4) at Lucas Oil Stadium on Nov 8, 2026, 1:00 PM ET.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
A longer bar = a better setup for the offense: half from how high the offense ranks, half from how low the defense across from it ranks (of 32). A full bar is the best offense against the worst defense; the dashed tick is an even matchup. Biggest advantage first.
DAL has the clear advantage in rushing, sacks, turnovers, passing and red-zone touchdown rate.
IND has the clear advantage in rushing, third-down conversion and red-zone touchdown rate.
DAL offensevs
IND defenseDAL offense ranks better in 6 of 6 matchups (5 by a clear margin) · IND defense in 0
IND offensevsDAL defenseIND offense ranks better in 5 of 6 matchups (3 by a clear margin) · DAL defense in 1
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
244 a game, league 227 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
IND pressures on 28% of dropbacks (#22 of 32); he completes 43% under pressure (league 34%).
97.2 a game, league 96.0 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
155 a game, league 141 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
His routes (Hitch / curl 16%, Slant 13%, Quick out 13%): IND allowed 8.0 yds a target, league 7.8.
Same IND readings against WRs as above.
His routes (Go 20%, Hitch / curl 19%, Slant 15%): IND allowed 8.4 yds a target, league 8.1.
58.8 a game, league 54.0 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
His routes (Quick out 39%, Hitch / curl 19%, Shallow cross 8%): IND allowed 7.1 yds a target, league 7.0.
249 a game, league 227 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
Both readings soft
DAL pressures on 32% of dropbacks (#8 of 32); he completes 43% under pressure (league 34%).
96.5 a game, league 96.0 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
169 a game, league 141 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
Both readings soft
His routes (Quick out 26%, Hitch / curl 20%, Deep out 9%): DAL allowed 7.8 yds a target, league 7.2.
Same DAL readings against WRs as above.
His routes (Hitch / curl 25%, Quick out 20%, In / dig 10%): DAL allowed 8.2 yds a target, league 7.6.
48.6 a game, league 54.0 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
His routes (Quick out 28%, Hitch / curl 18%, Corner 12%): DAL allowed 7.8 yds a target, league 7.4.
Players: this season's attempts, carries and targets (last season before a team's first game); anyone ruled out on the injury report is left off. Routes are where his targets came from over 2024–25, each route's yards shrunk toward the league's. Books already price these matchups.
Rank 1 allows the most. Each defense's last 17 games from box scores (early in a season that reaches back into last season; each row shows how many of its games are from each season), against the average defense. Books already price matchups: this is where to look, not a bet.
Where a player's own strength meets something tonight's opponent gives up more than most, measured against the league. Matchups like these were tested as inputs for player props and added nothing the books' lines do not already reflect: research, not a pick.
Lines from regulated US sportsbooks; the fair chance is the books' own, with their margin taken out.
Dallas Cowboys5 listedIndianapolis Colts10 listedTimes are when the report changed on our end, last 30 days.
The referee is posted closer to kickoff.
Book-by-book prices appear about a week before the game.
Not enough line history yet: the charts appear once the books have posted this game's numbers more than once.
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (3 of the 15 seasons in our history).
Dallas CowboysIndianapolis ColtsLines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the score. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Sportsbook links may be affiliate links; we may earn a commission if you sign up through them.
The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 32 ranked teams, over each team's last 17 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Oct 2026; 7 in 2026, 10 in 2025). A longer bar = higher in the league (rank 1 = highest, even for points allowed). A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.