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Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Mon, Sep 14, 8:15 PM ET · Arrowhead Stadium · 85° · Sunny
KC -3 · O/U 42.5
DEN +124 · KC -148
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
DEN +124
58%
model margin DEN by 2.8
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
DEN +3
53%
5.8 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 42.5
52%
model total 36.7
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 1604 | 0.8 | 3.6 | — | 0 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 1486 | -3.7 | 1.8 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- DEN +118 Elo
- Home field
- KC +2.5 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- DEN by 2.8
- Market spread
- KC -3
- Model total
- 36.7 vs 42.5
- Moneyline
- DEN +124 · KC -148
Denver Broncos injuries
- Jonathon Cooper LBOut
- Nick Gargiulo GOut
- Caleb Lohner TEInjured Reserve
- Drew Sanders LBInjured Reserve
- Frank Crum OTInjured Reserve
- Levelle Bailey LBInjured Reserve
- Matt Henningsen DEInjured Reserve
- Michael Deiter CInjured Reserve
- Luke Wattenberg CQuestionable
- Marvin Mims Jr. WRQuestionable
- Riley Moss CBQuestionable
From ESPN's report. Shown for context — the model does not yet price individual absences, which is the known gap between it and the market.
Kansas City Chiefs injuries
- Omarr Norman-Lott DTOut
- Jeff Caldwell WRInjured Reserve
- Jimmy Holiday WRInjured Reserve
- Matt Waletzko OTInjured Reserve
- Alohi Gilman SQuestionable
- Ashton Gillotte DEQuestionable
- Drue Tranquill LBQuestionable
- Josh Simmons OTQuestionable
- Patrick Mahomes QBQuestionable
- R Mason Thomas DEQuestionable
- Trey Smith GQuestionable
From ESPN's report. Shown for context — the model does not yet price individual absences, which is the known gap between it and the market.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.