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Denver (5-2) hosts Miami (1-5) at Empower Field at Mile High on Dec 6, 2026, 4:05 PM ET.
Lines post about a week before the game.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
MIA end zone ← 100 yards → DEN end zone
A longer bar = a better setup for the offense: half from how high the offense ranks, half from how low the defense across from it ranks (of 32). A full bar is the best offense against the worst defense; the dashed tick is an even matchup. Biggest advantage first.
MIA has the clear advantage in third-down conversion and rushing; DEN's defense has it in red-zone touchdown rate, turnovers, passing and sacks.
DEN has the clear advantage in sacks, turnovers and passing.
MIA offensevs
DEN defenseMIA offense ranks better in 2 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · DEN defense in 4 (4 by a clear margin)
DEN offensevsMIA defenseDEN offense ranks better in 4 of 6 matchups (3 by a clear margin) · MIA defense in 0 · 2 even
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
218 a game, league 227 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
DEN pressures on 31% of dropbacks (#9 of 32); he completes 64% under pressure (league 34%).
83.0 a game, league 96.0 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
Mixed: few yards allowed, but leaky per play this season
129 a game, league 141 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
Both readings tough
His routes (Screen 25%, Quick out 18%, Slant 10%): DEN allowed 6.7 yds a target, league 7.0.
Same DEN readings against WRs as above.
65.7 a game, league 54.0 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
Mixed: lots of yards allowed, but stingy per play this season
His routes (Quick out 35%, Hitch / curl 17%, Screen 9%): DEN allowed 6.9 yds a target, league 7.1.
231 a game, league 227 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
MIA pressures on 27% of dropbacks (#24 of 32); he completes 38% under pressure (league 34%).
96.2 a game, league 96.0 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
126 a game, league 141 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
Mixed: few yards allowed, but leaky per play this season
His routes (In / dig 16%, Deep out 14%, Post 12%): MIA allowed 8.4 yds a target, league 8.3.
Same MIA readings against WRs as above.
His routes (Hitch / curl 23%, In / dig 18%, Go 16%): MIA allowed 8.7 yds a target, league 8.4.
68.9 a game, league 54.0 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
Both readings soft
His routes (Quick out 32%, Hitch / curl 20%, Shallow cross 11%): MIA allowed 7.1 yds a target, league 6.9.
Players: this season's attempts, carries and targets (last season before a team's first game); anyone ruled out on the injury report is left off. Routes are where his targets came from over 2024–25, each route's yards shrunk toward the league's. Books already price these matchups.
Rank 1 allows the most. Each defense's last 17 games from box scores (early in a season that reaches back into last season; each row shows how many of its games are from each season), against the average defense. Books already price matchups: this is where to look, not a bet.
Where a player's own strength meets something tonight's opponent gives up more than most, measured against the league. Matchups like these were tested as inputs for player props and added nothing the books' lines do not already reflect: research, not a pick.
Lines from regulated US sportsbooks; the fair chance is the books' own, with their margin taken out.
Miami Dolphins4 listedDenver Broncos6 listedTimes are when the report changed on our end, last 30 days.
The referee is posted closer to kickoff.
Book-by-book prices appear about a week before the game.
Not enough line history yet: the charts appear once the books have posted this game's numbers more than once.
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (4 of the 15 seasons in our history).
Miami DolphinsDenver BroncosLines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the score. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Sportsbook links may be affiliate links; we may earn a commission if you sign up through them.
The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 32 ranked teams, over each team's last 17 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Oct 2026; 6–7 in 2026, 10–11 in 2025). A longer bar = higher in the league (rank 1 = highest, even for points allowed). A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.