Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Nevada Wolf Pack
1-0 · #217 Elo
at
Sat, Oct 17, 7:00 PM ET
Fargodome · Indoors
North Dakota State Bison
2-0 · #61 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline —

The read

On rating alone North Dakota State Bison are 13.5 points better (#61 vs #217 of 240), and NDSU add 0.0 for home field.

Who has the edge

Rating
Clear edge
NDSU
NDSU rated 13.5 points better on Elo (#61 vs #217).
Home & rest
Even
—
NDSU gets 0.0 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Slight edge
NEV
NDSU +32.0 per game over the last five, NEV +35.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin

The margin, factor by factor

Nevada Wolf PackNorth Dakota State Bison
1316 Elo · #217
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
NDSU +13.5 pts
1559 Elo · #61
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
−11.2 pts vs NDSU D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
NDSU +10.1 pts
−1.1 pts vs NEV D
W · +35.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
NEV +1.5 pts
W W · +32.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—

Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).

Dissect the matchup

CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)

Season

NEVNDSU
1-0Record2-0
49.0Points for / game35.5
14.0Points against / game3.5
1-0 / 0-0Home / road2-0 / 0-0
1-0Against the spread1-1
1-0Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean.0-2
WLast 5W W

Power ratings

NEVNDSU
1316Elo1559
#217 of 240Rank#61 of 240
−4.4Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted.+1.3
+2.4Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good.+6.9
—Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season.1432

Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.

Advanced

NEVNDSU
−11.7SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average.−1.8
0.022Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD).0.296
0.195Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better.-0.404
37% / 44%Success rate (off / def)48% / 28%
1.20 / 1.20Explosiveness (off / def)1.14 / 1.03
550Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster.516
36%Returning production—

Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Head to head

No meetings in our history.

How the margin was built

Rating gap
NDSU +13.5 pts
Home field
NDSU +— pts
Rest
Even
Weather / roof
— pts on the total
Model margin
—
Model total
—

Market

Spread
—
Total
—
Moneyline
—

Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.