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Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Nevada Wolf Pack
Sat, Sep 5, 10:30 PM ET · Mackay Stadium · 66° · 15 mph wind · Mostly sunny
WKU -1.5 · O/U 51.5
WKU -112 · NEV -108
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
WKU -112
58%
model margin WKU by 3.5
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean
WKU -1.5
51%
2.0 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 51.5
52%
model total 46.5
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | 1542 | -0.1 | 2.8 | — | 0 |
| Nevada Wolf Pack | 1423 | -4.4 | 2.4 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- WKU +118 Elo
- Home field
- NEV +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- -0.9 pts on the total
- Model margin
- WKU by 3.5
- Market spread
- WKU -1.5
- Model total
- 46.5 vs 51.5
- Moneyline
- WKU -112 · NEV -108
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.