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Montana State Bobcats
0-1 last yr · #79 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 10:30 PM ET
Mackay Stadium · 79° · 13 mph wind · Mostly cloudy
Nevada Wolf Pack
1-0 · #217 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline MTST -525 · NEV +109
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
MTST -525
66%
model margin MTST by 7.3
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 51.7
The read
On rating alone Montana State Bobcats are 10.3 points better (#79 vs #217 of 240), and NEV add 3.1 for home field.
Who has the edge
Model: MTST by 7.3
Rating
Clear edge
MTST
MTST rated 10.3 points better on Elo (#217 vs #79).
Home & rest
Clear edge
NEV
NEV gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
NEV
NEV +35.0 per game over the last five, MTST −46.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: MTST by 7.3
Montana State BobcatsNevada Wolf Pack
1502 Elo · #79
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
MTST +10.3 pts
1316 Elo · #217
road
Home field
NEV +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
−3.2 pts vs NEV D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
NEV +1.3 pts
−1.8 pts vs MTST D
L · −46.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
NEV +40.5 pts
W · +35.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| MTST | NEV | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 1-0 |
| 13.0 | Points for / game | 49.0 |
| 59.0 | Points against / game | 14.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| L | Last 5 | W |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| MTST | NEV | |
|---|---|---|
| 1502 | Elo | 1316 |
| #79 of 240 | Rank | #217 of 240 |
| −0.8 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −4.4 |
| −2.5 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +2.4 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | — |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- MTST +10.3 pts
- Home field
- NEV +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- -0.3 pts on the total
- Model margin
- MTST by 7.3
- Model total
- 51.7 vs —
Market · 1 books
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- MTST -525 · NEV +109
- Best price
- MTST -525 kalshi · NEV +109 kalshi
| Book | NEV spread | Total | MTST ML | NEV ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | — | — | -525 | +109 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.